tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77053749716662617102024-03-04T23:37:24.393-08:00WAFB FirstAlert Weather BlogSteve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.comBlogger720125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-12169090896802841802016-10-10T15:33:00.001-07:002016-10-11T15:02:15.580-07:00Why LSU fans aren't buying what Foley, Sankey are sellingIf it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.<br />
<br />
That idiom has reverberated in my mind for several days now as the drama unfolded surrounding the fate of the LSU-Florida game. In this case, it sure felt like there was some 'ducking' going on in Florida.<br />
<br />
I was very vocal last week about the obstacles Hurricane Matthew would present to playing the game at its scheduled time in Gainesville. As early as 3:35 Monday afternoon, I expressed concern about the possible impacts of Matthew to Gainesville.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
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Trivial in the grand scheme of things but <a href="https://twitter.com/LSUfootball">@LSUfootball</a> will have to monitor <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a>. IF it went to FL, impacts in Gainesville poss by Fri. <a href="https://t.co/dHyUASkNkJ">https://t.co/dHyUASkNkJ</a></div>
— Steve Caparotta (@SteveWAFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/783042842432311297">October 3, 2016</a></blockquote>
We all know the end result by now. The game has been 'indefinitely postponed'. I was ready to jump out of the debate until I read a couple of things this weekend. Frank Frangie with Gridiron Now penned a piece saying <a href="http://gridironnow.com/lsu-media-embarrasses-itself-concocting-narrative-postponed-game/" target="_blank">LSU media was embarrassing itself</a> with coverage of the decision, calling out seasoned reporters Glenn Guilbeu & Ron Higgins, among others. Then I read an article by Dennis Dodd with CBS Sports saying <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/lsu-florida-will-be-played-but-reactions-to-its-postponement-have-been-appalling/" target="_blank">reaction to the game postponement has been appalling</a>, with much of his disdain seeming to point toward Baton Rouge.<br />
<br />
In a situation like this, it's no surprise that people in Baton Rouge are seeing things very differently from those in Gainesville. And if we're all being fair to each other, both sides likely have some valid points. However, for those in Florida and the rest of the country who think we are insensitive to a major hurricane striking the Sunshine State, let me outline a few key points, followed by a detailed timeline of how the weather threat unfolded.<br />
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<h3>
Key points from the LSU fan side:</h3>
<br />
<ol>
<li>A realistic threat to Gainesville from Hurricane Matthew became apparent as soon as Monday afternoon, or 5 days before the scheduled game. Shouldn't that have provided plenty of time to work on contingency plans?</li>
<li>Contrary to popular belief, this was not a selfish ploy by LSU fans to have the game moved to Baton Rouge. The majority I know simply wanted it played. Whether that was in Gainesville, Atlanta, Birmingham, Mobile or here in the Red Stick. Home field advantage if the game was moved here? See the South Carolina game from the 2015 season when LSU was undefeated and had the Hesiman front-runner. Paid attendance was 42,058 and most believe the actual attendance was quite a bit lower.</li>
<li>Florida's stubbornness and flat out arrogance with the "game will not be moved out of Gainesville" message certainly didn't go over well here. </li>
<li>LSU is a program that moved a game to Arizona State in the wake of Cat. 3 Hurricane Katrina, delayed a game until Monday night after Cat. 3Hurricane Rita, and pushed up the start time of a game before Cat. 2 Hurricane Gustav.</li>
<li>Louisiana people are absolutely <i>not</i> insensitive to what Florida residents were facing. We've been through it multiple times. Baton Rouge and surrounding areas went through hell this summer (Alton Sterling shooting, shooting of multiple law enforcement officers, biblical flooding). We get it.</li>
</ol>
<h3>
Timeline</h3>
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<h4>
4 PM CDT Monday (5 days until scheduled game, 4 days until predicted impact)</h4>
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Gainesville falls within the forecast cone of Hurricane Matthew for the first time. That should have started to sound some alarm bells. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7rqYN_zXkDwnltlIRpPAbUrQ7O7ksxjPtzDh2R6nvdjfpNwLvvqMp_aZwlJMdJ3ic6YD3taWmkEaHgF1bzywXPEsvzMlirNySQv1BSRh6bSDgEZGLdXayKMO8EfyB98rnO-42L7kt8pw/s1600/4+PM+Monday+Track.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7rqYN_zXkDwnltlIRpPAbUrQ7O7ksxjPtzDh2R6nvdjfpNwLvvqMp_aZwlJMdJ3ic6YD3taWmkEaHgF1bzywXPEsvzMlirNySQv1BSRh6bSDgEZGLdXayKMO8EfyB98rnO-42L7kt8pw/s400/4+PM+Monday+Track.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast track for Hurricane Matthew issued at 4 PM CDT, Monday, Oct. 3, 2016.</td></tr>
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<h4>
</h4>
<h4>
10 AM CDT Tuesday (4 days until scheduled game, 3 days until predicted impact)</h4>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The National Hurricane Center says the probability of Gainesville experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds is 49%. That was a significant increase from the 31% probability given in the 4 PM Monday advisory.<br />
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<h4>
4 PM CDT Tuesday</h4>
<br />
The official forecast track shifts closer to Gainesville. In fact, it's roughly 100 miles closer than 24 hours before, indicating a major hurricane just east of Gainesville within 24 hours of the scheduled kickoff. Again, this is TUESDAY.<br />
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Forecast this time yesterday had closest approach of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> ~200 miles from Gainesville...now closer to 100 miles. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/lsu?src=hash">#lsu</a> <a href="https://t.co/QjmjcBR4rT">pic.twitter.com/QjmjcBR4rT</a></div>
— Steve Caparotta (@SteveWAFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/783410476122267648">October 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<div>
In this same advisory, the National Hurricane Center warns for the first time of the challenges in forecasting a storm that is expected to parallel the coast. In my mind, the added uncertainty is all the more reason to make a contingency plan for the game.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
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Terrific point on track of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> here from <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic">@NHC_Atlantic</a> --> <a href="https://t.co/gIqWUvd5jQ">pic.twitter.com/gIqWUvd5jQ</a></div>
— Steve Caparotta (@SteveWAFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/783412016190984193">October 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<h4>
</h4>
<h4>
4:47 AM CDT Wednesday (3 days until scheduled game, 2 days until predicted impact)</h4>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijBVyS1nL8WqIqGlVQ_U1y3GRw3qluZpmVM8qK2NxbgceaQOYy3mHNcTtzKXLhAplr6fB54IBZxKsQavoIX7brFy1HSSuis8wgXUgVFc-9HtIB578l9BWGPscTKzDuizWK0VyKfCyrT28/s1600/Trop+Storm+Watch.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijBVyS1nL8WqIqGlVQ_U1y3GRw3qluZpmVM8qK2NxbgceaQOYy3mHNcTtzKXLhAplr6fB54IBZxKsQavoIX7brFy1HSSuis8wgXUgVFc-9HtIB578l9BWGPscTKzDuizWK0VyKfCyrT28/s1600/Trop+Storm+Watch.PNG" /></a></div>
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Tropical Storm Watch issued for Gainesville. This is a heads up that there's a very realistic possibility of tropical storm force winds within 48 hours.<br />
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<h4>
10:30 AM CDT Wednesday</h4>
<br />
Florida Head Coach Jim McElwain, appearing on the SEC weekly teleconference with coaches, jokes about hosting the game at their indoor facility when asked about possibly moving the game. Forgive LSU fans if they found it a little disingenuous 24 hours later when McElwain and Athletic Director Jeremy Foley were justifying the decision to cancel by saying it was done out of concern for their people. The tone coming out of Gainesville in the early part of the week didn't seem to be one of concern; it came across as arrogance.<br />
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https://soundcloud.com/secnetwork/uf-jim-mcelwain?in=secnetwork/sets/sec-fb-coaches-1<br />
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<h4>
11:10 AM CDT Wednesday</h4>
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Florida announces in a tweet there is still no change to the status of the game. I really thought the Tropical Storm Watch would force a decision by this point. I was wrong.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Still no status change for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LSUvsUF?src=hash">#LSUvsUF</a> on Saturday. We expect to have another update after 5 p.m. today.</div>
— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/783700775625224192">October 5, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<h4>
3:50 PM CDT Wednesday</h4>
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The University of Florida announces campus will close on Friday due to Hurricane Matthew.<br />
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<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
UF main campus will close Friday, Oct. 7, due to Hurricane Matthew. More info will follow. Go to <a href="https://t.co/qE8GKp3Xtv">https://t.co/qE8GKp3Xtv</a> for updates.</div>
— UF Alert (@UFAlert) <a href="https://twitter.com/UFAlert/status/783771338502705154">October 5, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<h4>
4:00 PM CDT Wednesday</h4>
<br />
Florida defiantly announces, "The game will not be moved out of Gainesville." This announcement is made 10 minutes<b><i> after</i></b> it is announced campus will be closed on Friday. It's also announced at the same time a new forecast is released by the National Hurricane Center. That forecast calls for a Category 4 hurricane to be just southeast of Gainesville by Friday afternoon.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Latest UPDATE on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LSUvsUF?src=hash">#LSUvsUF</a>: <a href="https://t.co/4DBNehnFBw">pic.twitter.com/4DBNehnFBw</a></div>
— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/783773976401219584">October 5, 2016</a></blockquote>
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So the threat is real enough to close campus but not real enough to make a decision on a football game? It was clear that the window to consider alternate scenarios for playing the game was quickly closing, if not already closed.<br />
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<h4>
10:37 PM CDT Wednesday</h4>
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Tropical Storm Warning issued for Gainesville, indicating that tropical storm force winds are likely. Check out the National Weather Service forecast for Friday, indicating "strong and damaging winds...gusts up to 65 mph". And at this point, Florida was telling everyone they still planned to play football in Gainesville less than 24 hours later. Again, can you blame LSU fans for questioning the sincerity of Jeremy Foley or the leadership (lack thereof) of Greg Sankey at this point?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvFfCVvRuj7lQfh242hCQMiaVWzuXLiliJJH5V2Rnx0A52w26_6U6z3mzDHoQ8k1s4Dku57vEdU_MixYhaoBPUB_nTL3pFMyaKAQDdg41HpdlfATLBJXYUbVTbqxd_zTJDpjGw9FIOV70/s1600/Trop+Storm+Warning.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvFfCVvRuj7lQfh242hCQMiaVWzuXLiliJJH5V2Rnx0A52w26_6U6z3mzDHoQ8k1s4Dku57vEdU_MixYhaoBPUB_nTL3pFMyaKAQDdg41HpdlfATLBJXYUbVTbqxd_zTJDpjGw9FIOV70/s320/Trop+Storm+Warning.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<h4>
2:50 PM CDT Thursday (2 days until scheduled game, 1 day until predicted impact)</h4>
<br />
The SEC releases a statement announcing that the LSU-Florida game is postponed. In it, Commissioner Greg Sankey states,<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; font-family: "lucida sans" , "helvetica" , "arial"; font-size: 13px;">“The developments of the hurricane in the last 24 hours, the projected magnitude of its impact and the unknown aftermath of this storm have resulted in this decision to seek another date to play the LSU-Florida game. We have to be sensitive to the possible imminent disruption to the state of Florida and in particular the Gainesville and surrounding area.”</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; font-family: "lucida sans" , "helvetica" , "arial"; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;">What developments in the last 24 hours? At this point, the forecast had been pretty steady for 3 straight days in forecasting a major hurricane near the Florida coastline on Friday. The differences in the tracks shown below are <i>minor</i> when margin of error is considered.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigX_VtEhIfdvkgO9rj99kP82y7VG0DV9ypyRs_usuKueoFzX9RFtz6IBINyd_z36Bm6-YbHgRIKTcvrVcyc0fgpBViHI9bqxrNvNxwu-otsPxMxvcz7mRaDewYnZbIUCkYk0DFBb3Rt8M/s1600/Track+Comparison.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigX_VtEhIfdvkgO9rj99kP82y7VG0DV9ypyRs_usuKueoFzX9RFtz6IBINyd_z36Bm6-YbHgRIKTcvrVcyc0fgpBViHI9bqxrNvNxwu-otsPxMxvcz7mRaDewYnZbIUCkYk0DFBb3Rt8M/s400/Track+Comparison.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Comparison of official forecast tracks for Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;">Sankey went on to make a similar statement about changes in the forecast in a phone interview with Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson on Saturday. Come on, man. This is about as consistent of a forecast as you will get with a hurricane.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;">All along, I was absolutely in favor of the game not being played in Gainesville on Saturday. And while Baton Rouge certainly could have hosted, if that was off the board, an alternative neutral site certainly could have done the job. But if none of those options, why not push the game back to Monday in Gainesville and if things end up worse than expected, cancel the game at some point over the weekend?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;">Here's one other thing to note, you've heard LSU Athletic Director Joe Alleva be pretty adamant in multiple interviews that they bent over backwards to offer as many options as possible to play the game with Florida. Have you heard anyone on the Florida side or with the SEC deny anything Alleva has said?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;">So, I'll say it again.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;">If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc;"><br /></span>
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Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-80395049584686463992016-09-28T15:38:00.001-07:002016-09-28T15:40:33.012-07:00Early Thoughts on Tropical Storm MatthewThe strong tropical disturbance we've been tracking in the Atlantic since this past weekend achieved sufficient organization to be classified as Tropical Storm Matthew on Wednesday morning. It made a quick leap from tropical wave to strong tropical storm as the Hurricane Hunters discovered maximum sustained winds around 60 mph. No change in strength was noted with the 4 p.m. advisory.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTJaXZDbBMpJs_xqqum7THHohbBZdML8U4ImfyYA2bV42ZmAyWA-pNdNgiWr2itdJ6ALqN1tCP8xA42RmswVnSqVhcmsos5AMwd4SLIwVTFrH04rQzx5yWDh-z0aPFb20W89BFpNLeDy8/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTJaXZDbBMpJs_xqqum7THHohbBZdML8U4ImfyYA2bV42ZmAyWA-pNdNgiWr2itdJ6ALqN1tCP8xA42RmswVnSqVhcmsos5AMwd4SLIwVTFrH04rQzx5yWDh-z0aPFb20W89BFpNLeDy8/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tropical Storm Matthew advisory from 4 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 28.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<h3>
What We Know</h3>
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While the eastern Caribbean is known as a bit of a death bed for developing tropical systems, it appears that won't be the case this time around. Conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening and the official forecast calls for Matthew to become a hurricane by Friday, potentially strengthening further to a Category 2 (or stronger) over the weekend.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiKYD8YdIh52R0utFxIAm0n7tfkRqyquSPDNmcJXOGUnX5XMZlDdTH2gXq9_252Z7jZygrHk5phkHB43Ryf6TO7I_ir_WTNhA3zINTZwTRPceZ4pt2CmIb9wtMe39MFyr2mhh0IIx1agE/s1600/Web2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiKYD8YdIh52R0utFxIAm0n7tfkRqyquSPDNmcJXOGUnX5XMZlDdTH2gXq9_252Z7jZygrHk5phkHB43Ryf6TO7I_ir_WTNhA3zINTZwTRPceZ4pt2CmIb9wtMe39MFyr2mhh0IIx1agE/s400/Web2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Most of our computer model guidance is in agreement with this line of thinking, showing steady strengthening through the next 5 days. Note that there are several models indicating the potential for Matthew to become a 'major' hurricane (Cat. 3 or stronger).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgriE_YoOGkDuDRqUdaC4MIusoPDu_kCUe4KNUG4tO1ZI9iRwS4Qd2WpXlu6JAPr9eKB9PGM7CBavyp6gommcvrfn1cBnRELERUs8J5os8hKtEExIP0vzvy_R7o-jJMQRtYdLA-wUXFWls/s1600/Matthew+Intensity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgriE_YoOGkDuDRqUdaC4MIusoPDu_kCUe4KNUG4tO1ZI9iRwS4Qd2WpXlu6JAPr9eKB9PGM7CBavyp6gommcvrfn1cBnRELERUs8J5os8hKtEExIP0vzvy_R7o-jJMQRtYdLA-wUXFWls/s400/Matthew+Intensity.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<h3>
What We Don't Know</h3>
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Most of you are probably wondering if Matthew will make it into the Gulf of Mexico. That is a key point that we <b><i>cannot</i></b> make any conclusions on yet and likely may not be able to for at least another couple of days.<br />
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If you simply looked at the so-called 'spaghetti plots' available on a number of sites online, you might think the Gulf of Mexico is in the clear.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkNTnD4Z9t2V68SKsDfFPXjp4Rbq9fWfsB-k0y5nALPH5wHOOI7YN3LJBq4o44WO20gIhPJM56kHsw35VuOiBVvUo-hTsfTWbZ9sHas0L7HDmODRnSN9x3BskU5PCB9gNO-FU77HUvBR0/s1600/Web3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkNTnD4Z9t2V68SKsDfFPXjp4Rbq9fWfsB-k0y5nALPH5wHOOI7YN3LJBq4o44WO20gIhPJM56kHsw35VuOiBVvUo-hTsfTWbZ9sHas0L7HDmODRnSN9x3BskU5PCB9gNO-FU77HUvBR0/s400/Web3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The problem with these spaghetti plots is that they do not include one of our most reliable models, the European. It's also a lot more difficult for the average person to get a look at the European ensembles because much of the European model data is only available through sites that charge a fee.<br />
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What are the ensembles? The European is one of a few global models run at a high resolution. At the completion of each run, it's then run an additional 50 times at a slightly lower resolution with small adjustments made to the starting conditions in the atmosphere for each run. The advantage to ensemble forecasting is that it gives us a much better look at the <i>range</i> of possibilities and <i>uncertainty</i> for a given storm.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Guidance from EPS 12z is well-behaved, typical spread thru Day 6 or 7, then it's every man for himself. MSLP spaghetti: <a href="https://t.co/ZfDSuRWDDq">pic.twitter.com/ZfDSuRWDDq</a></div>
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781253726749204480">September 28, 2016</a></blockquote>
In this case, the ensembles of the European model paint a much different picture, with many indicating the potential for Matthew to move into the Gulf of Mexico by the mid to latter part of next week. The tweet above from Meteorologist Ryan Maue with WeatherBell shows how the possible tracks for Matthew are all over the board from the Euro ensembles. Consider each cluster of red concentric circles as a possible track from Matthew. This is likely a result of what is expected to be a complex steering pattern that develops by next week. In simple terms, subtle changes in the steering mechanisms or the strength of Matthew could have big impacts on the track.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Bottom Line</h3>
<br />
It is still very early in the game for Tropical Storm Matthew. Forecast confidence is pretty high through the next 3-4 days, but drops off considerably as we head into next week. The majority of the guidance keeps Matthew on the Atlantic side of Florida, but the well respected European gives us reason to pay attention.<br />
<br />
Stay tuned, and as always, make sure your hurricane plan is in place just in case Matthew or anything else should decide to head our way.<br />
<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-58867655795124340072016-09-16T10:21:00.002-07:002016-09-16T10:21:57.676-07:00Dangerous close call with lightning for fans in Tiger StadiumThe headlines following LSU's victory over Jacksonville State last Saturday were all centered around the quarterback change, but lost in the mix was what I saw as a dangerous encounter thousands of LSU fans and students had with lightning before the game even began.<br />
<br />
Storms quickly developed in the Baton Rouge area around 5 p.m. and persisted long enough to delay the scheduled 6:30 kickoff for almost an hour.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUnQWNt4331Mhf7jPrWCYJ9CzxlKE_4mmsBXnbzuIaX6SDFzDpY1QhRrIeTvLFHHlgPULRHcnXEnsFBWnMB8cXeY9rqRW5Ek8o1jTaxAkviPmXoeTxbkFvprZt-2VSYI4vsEfyUp6hNM/s1600/Web.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUnQWNt4331Mhf7jPrWCYJ9CzxlKE_4mmsBXnbzuIaX6SDFzDpY1QhRrIeTvLFHHlgPULRHcnXEnsFBWnMB8cXeY9rqRW5Ek8o1jTaxAkviPmXoeTxbkFvprZt-2VSYI4vsEfyUp6hNM/s400/Web.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radar snapshot from 5:40 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 10 showing storms with plenty of lightning extending from the LSU campus northward through downtown Baton Rouge.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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During the delay, SEC Network cameras were rolling as LSU students and fans filed into Tiger Stadium. A still shot captured from the video feed showed a vivid lightning strike perilously close with several thousand people already milling about the stadium.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Mother Nature delivers a little present here at Tiger Stadium one hour from kickoff. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LSU?src=hash">#LSU</a> <a href="https://t.co/44a3yXM9wr">pic.twitter.com/44a3yXM9wr</a></div>
— Brandon Zimmerman (@BZSEC) <a href="https://twitter.com/BZSEC/status/774737873711013888">September 10, 2016</a></blockquote>
<br />
This is clearly a close call for those in the stands. TOO close. Just how close was that lightning strike? I did a little digging to see if I could figure it out.<br />
<br />
I obtained a lightning report from the <a href="http://www.uspln.com/" target="_blank">U.S. Precision Lightning Network</a> (USPLN). It shows a total of 171 cloud-to-ground lighting strikes within 5 miles of Tiger Stadium beginning at 5:04 p.m. and ending at 6:14 p.m. EACH one of those strikes is dangerously close. Lightning has been known to strike 10+ miles from the parent thunderstorm and can often occur even when it is not raining in a given location.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkkEHx-skitT_xZsHsWjmxVmgWcLTkHZc85rZ2ZRzAGJh7JMw9242ubVR-CLgkKq3L3vUKZQ5VqqyFt1qu3ll4maZOBiNMAvBmbAWg8tXR9aJ_zB_F1QfJ2Y5M1YPbZXoLIl2lHpJTMZE/s1600/Lightning+Map.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkkEHx-skitT_xZsHsWjmxVmgWcLTkHZc85rZ2ZRzAGJh7JMw9242ubVR-CLgkKq3L3vUKZQ5VqqyFt1qu3ll4maZOBiNMAvBmbAWg8tXR9aJ_zB_F1QfJ2Y5M1YPbZXoLIl2lHpJTMZE/s400/Lightning+Map.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: start;">Map of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes detected within 5 miles of Tiger Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016.<br />
<i>Lightning data and map from the United States Precision Lightning Network (USPLN), courtesy of The Weather Company, an IBM Business.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
After exchanging messages with Brandon Zimmerman, the person who tweeted the photo, he stated the strike by SEC Network cameras was precisely at 5:30 p.m. Sure enough, the lightning report shows the closest strike to Tiger Stadium occurred right at 5:30 and was only 0.8 miles (+/- 250 meters) away.<br />
<br />
In other words, a little worse 'luck' on Saturday and we could have been dealing with a mass casualty situation at LSU. That may seem like hyperbole to some, but I think it's a harsh reality given the amount of lightning in the area on that day.<br />
<br />
Think it can't happen? Check out the video below in which a single lightning strike injured several soccer players in the midst of a match.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MNJRPOltifI" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
So are officials at LSU blame? From what I can tell, probably not. It's my understanding that announcements had already been made over the public address system prior to this strike warning fans to seek cover. Associate Athletic Director Michael Bonnette had this to say when asked for comment:<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white; color: #1f497d; font-size: 14.6667px;">We make every attempt to let people know that there is inclement weather in the area and to seek shelter. When there is weather in the area, fan safety and well-being is our primary concern. We put a graphic on all of the video boards in the stadium alerting fans to the inclement weather and to seek shelter. We also have continuous reminders about the weather in the area and to seek shelter with public address announcements in the stadium."</span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #1f497d; font-size: 14.6667px;"><br /></span></i></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My take is that there are three issues that need to be addressed. </span></span><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">First, despite constant reminders from meteorologists, I still fear that many in the general public don't truly grasp the full danger of lightning or that strikes can occur several miles away from the parent storm, potentially while it's not even raining overhead. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Personal responsibility.</b> Too many of us rely on someone to tell us what to do when we should be taking responsibility ourselves for our own safety.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The student section. The photo showing the lightning strike clearly shows that the majority of those in the stadium at the time were in the student section. Some of that may be attributable to youthful carelessness, but I suspect it has a lot more to do with kids fearing losing their spots in the student section if they seek shelter. It may be time for campus officials and Student Government to examine how to handle this issue going forward.</span></span></li>
</ol>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">Louisiana has already seen 4 fatalities this year resulting from lightning strikes. We also rank 6th in the nation for number of lightning fatalities since 1959. This is an issue that everyone needs to understand and take seriously.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFfDiKFJ1_B1mi1y-Ub7Vdi3yEZtiWSuOUtRwMmbymIDWqZvzf7G7c8f9FvIn16B-IvmZBIzCcZZJcbXpB0lt6bidc5VfVqLLO67Xv1USJtJqB6bXUyDwORBdZiN7XggW0F1y119drUmQ/s1600/fatl16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFfDiKFJ1_B1mi1y-Ub7Vdi3yEZtiWSuOUtRwMmbymIDWqZvzf7G7c8f9FvIn16B-IvmZBIzCcZZJcbXpB0lt6bidc5VfVqLLO67Xv1USJtJqB6bXUyDwORBdZiN7XggW0F1y119drUmQ/s400/fatl16.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2016 lightning fatalities by state as of Sept. 16. Credit: NOAA.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">With a very real threat for more lightning on Saturday as tens of thousands head to the LSU and Southern University campuses, please be weather aware and have a way to track radar and lightning strikes, such as with our free weather app. And most importantly, know where to go should lightning develop over either campus while tailgating or during the games.</span></div>
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-3941841442842269692016-08-26T13:22:00.000-07:002016-08-26T13:22:12.886-07:00Invest 99L down but not quite outThe saga that is Invest '99L' continues as we move into the weekend. The system that appeared to be on life support on Thursday has shown some signs of coming back to life today. But wind shear and dry air continue to make it an uphill battle for '99L'.<br />
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<br />
<h3>
We've got a pulse</h3>
<br />
We were almost ready to announce a time of death for '99L' on Thursday, but 18 years in this business and even more tracking systems like these have taught me things can change in a hurry in the tropics. We didn't see '99L' blow up into a tropical depression or storm today, but after a day devoid of any nearby convection (t-storms) on Thursday, blossoming t-storms on the eastern side of the system let us know it still has a pulse and a chance.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR2Zw89T74vZacn3FjL1yMXy6VloE8i_IpA-BEPwHDqMe1uZk25xSeTAu29sAXyNk_vHOxu8-vuPHa6XlgPq1zgS_BkaRTyqaoQHZ2fgHxqkDfb71weKj-usEZ7mYWwxZmCQkuxNCCG5k/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR2Zw89T74vZacn3FjL1yMXy6VloE8i_IpA-BEPwHDqMe1uZk25xSeTAu29sAXyNk_vHOxu8-vuPHa6XlgPq1zgS_BkaRTyqaoQHZ2fgHxqkDfb71weKj-usEZ7mYWwxZmCQkuxNCCG5k/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite image from 2:30 PM Friday afternoon shows developing t-storms associated with 99L, primarily on its eastern flank (east of the 'L' on the map).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The developing t-storms today are likely a sign that wind shear is lessening a bit in the vicinity of '99L'. Remember, when talking about wind shear, we're referring to strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere that tend to rip apart tropical systems. While wind shear is lower today, satellite animations and other analyses indicate it is still very much a factor and hasn't gone away. That, combined with continued dry air west of '99L' mean that conditions are still far from ideal for strengthening in the short term.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Model guidance: not so fast, 99L</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
If you've followed this saga through the week, you know there's been quite the battle among our computer models, particularly the GFS and the European. While the European outperforms the GFS as a whole, the GFS appears to have scored a victory over the last couple of days as it showed little becoming of '99L' even as it neared Florida.<br />
<br />
The last few runs of the European model have now come much more in line with the GFS and essentially keep '99L' as a tropical wave moving into the eastern Gulf and then have it drawn northward without much fanfare.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUaMKTp56oLZITvT5IZFCvR-APZ1cvvRHdCYKfH3b_lLUWNjE_TgD-o582S0WMNBW8MLLTErxc-RQ5jfVqBvGoP7nFxA7hprtI6zdunrsMu3cibYqD0ZXfLgMwsAK5KW16PA2g08lKtos/s1600/GFS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUaMKTp56oLZITvT5IZFCvR-APZ1cvvRHdCYKfH3b_lLUWNjE_TgD-o582S0WMNBW8MLLTErxc-RQ5jfVqBvGoP7nFxA7hprtI6zdunrsMu3cibYqD0ZXfLgMwsAK5KW16PA2g08lKtos/s400/GFS.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI0m5hyHjMQN5ff3acPydoWduR2N36H0NQxTrJUoGuhoSQ0K8qXjLtKjIuHf43fPHoUd0v8SFGm-W_YN3p3JNd1wzNhSyKcGk8LDKdNuRRUa-d2YLC5hlHecNy2HtxnAi4NAzptku0RUo/s1600/Euro.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI0m5hyHjMQN5ff3acPydoWduR2N36H0NQxTrJUoGuhoSQ0K8qXjLtKjIuHf43fPHoUd0v8SFGm-W_YN3p3JNd1wzNhSyKcGk8LDKdNuRRUa-d2YLC5hlHecNy2HtxnAi4NAzptku0RUo/s400/Euro.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Morning model runs from Friday, Aug. 26 valid for 7 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 30. Top panel (GFS) and bottom panel (European). Credit: WeatherBell</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
<h3>
Forecast uncertainty</h3>
<br />
I've struggled with two aspects of this forecast all along through the week. First, I couldn't understand why the GFS and then the Euro didn't have much becoming of '99L' even once it entered the Gulf of Mexico where conditions appeared to be more favorable for development. While it may not be the lone factor, additional analysis I've done today leads me to believe dry air on the western side of '99L' may continue to be a factor.<br />
<br />
The other thing that bothered me was this forecasted turn to the north once it entered the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most guidance was showing a fairly potent ridge of high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. which would tend to keep the system trekking farther westward into the Gulf. However, I'm starting to believe the models are seeing a developing upper-low near Bermuda as a feature that will drift westward, weaken the ridge, and essentially help '99L' turn northward. This is a complex interaction for sure, so I still wouldn't take it as a given.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhShyuRsvsJdrnF0BDpuJAzMDjSpsNVNupuOlKGOh4Rdedg3uuw0WvgqYSTiJdOCMQNKhM24K9RJONUFHBEK8y4geOgUosDMdqtOIAMqWzwRUVthZGa4anXGiXk1ioj-f8xRipi2xoy2ZY/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhShyuRsvsJdrnF0BDpuJAzMDjSpsNVNupuOlKGOh4Rdedg3uuw0WvgqYSTiJdOCMQNKhM24K9RJONUFHBEK8y4geOgUosDMdqtOIAMqWzwRUVthZGa4anXGiXk1ioj-f8xRipi2xoy2ZY/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<h3>
Bottom line</h3>
<br />
The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 1 p.m. Friday still gives '99L' a 60% chance of development within the next 5 days. Do not let your guard down. The good news is that most of our reliable guidance keeps '99L' to our east even if it does develop.<br />
<br />
Please remember that forecast errors at 4-5 days and beyond can still be quite high, so this is not an all clear. It's just to say we're liking the trend for now but will continue to monitor its progress through the weekend.<br />
<br />
<h3>
A final note</h3>
<br />
For the last couple of days, I've seen many of my colleagues in the weather business calling any mention of '99L' hype or referring to it as the most hyped tropical disturbance in history. Yes, there are a few who have gotten out of hand, but for the most part, the amount of attention devoted to this underachieving tropical wave has been warranted.<br />
<br />
Remember, we had very reliable guidance indicating the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, with some model runs indicating something close to a major (Cat. 3 or stronger) hurricane. I think it would be negligent on our part not to discuss the possible scenarios, particularly given the state that our region is in right now. I can promise you I will always discuss events like this in detail, with special attention paid to not over-hyping or unnecessarily scaring anyone.<br />
<br />
The important thing is that we put everything in a proper context. Not only can this provide some useful information to you at home, but discussions like these can help spark good dialogues within the weather community on systems like '99L' that prove elusive to forecast.<br />
<br />
Stay safe and here's hoping that the GFS and Euro are both right with not much becoming of '99L'.<br />
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<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-38911687867348358012016-08-25T13:35:00.000-07:002016-08-25T13:35:21.444-07:00Invest 99L: the trend is your friendIf you've been tracking Invest '99L' with us over the last several days, you know it's been quite the roller coaster ride. Today has been no different.<br />
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<br />
<br />
<h3>
Morning scare</h3>
<br />We woke up to a new suite of model tracks with many showing a significant westward shift in the Gulf of Mexico. Note that the plot below represents models run on Thursday morning. The westward shift really rattled some fragile nerves locally.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwjx5B4IgYLxL-snegnZ4240IjFp8Gdg2njrrBEnyuozbGCIPvGuYVvZqoM5LmPjPsxcIzBSMoGxqa6hIRRBL2W-qZrQOnBXSJTibhz_jdQ1BuBAoZP95Ya-weeaNb6vVT6rrYSPtNPis/s1600/Thursday+AM+Models.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwjx5B4IgYLxL-snegnZ4240IjFp8Gdg2njrrBEnyuozbGCIPvGuYVvZqoM5LmPjPsxcIzBSMoGxqa6hIRRBL2W-qZrQOnBXSJTibhz_jdQ1BuBAoZP95Ya-weeaNb6vVT6rrYSPtNPis/s400/Thursday+AM+Models.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<h3>
Time to exhale</h3>
<br />
Then the latest GFS (American model) run started to roll in and it was sticking to its guns showing little becoming of '99L' even as it entered what many, including myself, saw as more favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijaz-Nqc15d5iN_erg0s3alJt4GE7D3DfUWEdHj4VKEvPCEzSXkLi3d5n3BncP6X49WakMlmZFZD0qKE23GWDAX7bbLp6TkBgJiya1lqgIZBYv1_rXjtNzGvKDvPox840wW52ogacCbaA/s1600/GFS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijaz-Nqc15d5iN_erg0s3alJt4GE7D3DfUWEdHj4VKEvPCEzSXkLi3d5n3BncP6X49WakMlmZFZD0qKE23GWDAX7bbLp6TkBgJiya1lqgIZBYv1_rXjtNzGvKDvPox840wW52ogacCbaA/s400/GFS.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Here's where the trend becomes your friend. The big news came early this afternoon as the revered European model came in and was seemingly starting to fall in line with the GFS. It showed little becoming of '99L' as it approached and moved near/just south of south Florida. But a key difference is that this latest run of the Euro still does at least develop a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf before moving it northward toward the Big Bend region of the Florida panhandle.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXkveqml8Q3dwxDWLbodN-cF0f0BK60QyafgMwjIYcDLRwNHv_CEtZU9y-UOUgRe3Z4Ez265nJmW0ys2lKSctVe_qhdRXfL79ZG2530ZZ8gg8IbujOaPwDznuxNReoWzAOUC1fqm8u9s4/s1600/Euro.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXkveqml8Q3dwxDWLbodN-cF0f0BK60QyafgMwjIYcDLRwNHv_CEtZU9y-UOUgRe3Z4Ez265nJmW0ys2lKSctVe_qhdRXfL79ZG2530ZZ8gg8IbujOaPwDznuxNReoWzAOUC1fqm8u9s4/s400/Euro.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<h3 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Current state: hot mess</h3>
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The most likely reason the models have backed off on development with '99L' today is its current state of affairs. It's essentially a 'naked swirl' of clouds near the Turks and Caicos Islands with no organized convection (t-storm activity) found anywhere close to its center. Wind shear and probably more so dry air have led to its demise.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjTph3qfb3Ufge4xmL6ttmi-LEXUemw8GwqWPti8sSR65A46D_a7CYkQgn-fUIcDbWXGf5YjmPzcLxAacHKGUFcDnG9P-oc4PYGCn82bVzZpbd14GoyjFVBPmU05rKzkYE7DEjpxwCGGU/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjTph3qfb3Ufge4xmL6ttmi-LEXUemw8GwqWPti8sSR65A46D_a7CYkQgn-fUIcDbWXGf5YjmPzcLxAacHKGUFcDnG9P-oc4PYGCn82bVzZpbd14GoyjFVBPmU05rKzkYE7DEjpxwCGGU/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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While wind shear and dry air are taking a toll right now, most guidance indicates shear will let up and dry air will become less of an issue into the weekend. That's something to watch.<br />
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<h3>
Why you should still pay attention</h3>
<br />
'99L' is on life support. Most of the more reliable guidance keeps it to our east. So why are we even still talking about this pitiful looking swirl of clouds? Here are 3 reasons to keep up with '99L':<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>IF, and it's a big 'IF', it manages to hold together for another 48 hours, conditions should gradually become more favorable for development.</li>
<li>I still think computer guidance may be underestimating the strength of high pressure over the southeast U.S. Stronger, more persistent high pressure would result in a more westward track.</li>
<li>Many of you will be extremely busy this weekend trying to recover from the recent floods. Should '99L' get its act together, it's possible some could wake up to a 'surprise' tropical storm on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, we may only be 48 hours or so from a landfall.</li>
</ol>
<h3>
Bottom line</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The trend is our friend right now. The longer '99L' struggles, the better the chance that it will never recover and have the opportunity to organize. Much of our model guidance is now following this train of thought, making '99L' a non-story.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
But do not let your guard down. Uncertainty continues to be very high on both the track and intensity of this system and we still need to monitor it closely since it will likely move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week in some form or fashion.</div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-34678128392141934962016-08-24T13:05:00.000-07:002016-08-24T13:05:37.931-07:00Model dance continues with tropical disturbance '99L'A city and region on edge in the wake of historic flooding has quickly shifted focus to possible developments in the tropics over the last couple of days. We don't want another major weather event. We simply <i>can't</i> handle any more rainfall.<br />
<br />
I've been flooded with questions about the future track of this disturbance passing through northern parts of the Caribbean as of Wednesday afternoon. Let's see if I can answer some of those questions and maybe even alleviate a little fear for those trying to recover.<br />
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<h3>
Current State of '99L'</h3>
<br />
The Hurricane Hunters flew through '99L' for several hours this morning, finding tropical storm force winds in several spots. However, winds alone are not enough to upgrade a disturbance to a tropical depression or storm. By definition, there must also be a well-defined center of low pressure at the surface. The Hurricane Hunters were unable to find one. Satellite imagery has hinted at a center just northeast of Puerto Rico this afternoon, but even if that's the center, there appears to be a mid-level center (several thousand feet above surface) well to the southeast. And the main area of convection (t-storms) is separated from both centers. In short, '99L' is a bit of a mess right now.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEVwKjR5-V9032miPW8XxmetQ7iIdlZSUGnCfXR-SRrO4h0Ci04_hyphenhyphenY7_d586k9c82iu3CmL-jOs_n3jJj-Usyp75_SB4woJMyWeB7j8khp9gT8IRvTcgNoDL68CF05idvLVKtPdwxG88/s1600/Web2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEVwKjR5-V9032miPW8XxmetQ7iIdlZSUGnCfXR-SRrO4h0Ci04_hyphenhyphenY7_d586k9c82iu3CmL-jOs_n3jJj-Usyp75_SB4woJMyWeB7j8khp9gT8IRvTcgNoDL68CF05idvLVKtPdwxG88/s400/Web2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<h3>
Where is '99L' headed next?</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
Even though it's a bit of a mangled mess of clouds right now, forecast guidance is in pretty good agreement that '99L' should be somewhere in the vicinity of the central or northwest Bahamas by Saturday.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0g__H3Ui-mmkdBkUi7t3wNkDIh39VK_AR-rbM5aynA7LhdZjIdy-bA2glCD5Rqq5TOiccixQcHWNy6rvy65AA_Icr9uW9elRw7xJbCV3qtqGhwoOvoJ1dvvXajKhyqFyhl7tY2NzxVaQ/s1600/Web3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0g__H3Ui-mmkdBkUi7t3wNkDIh39VK_AR-rbM5aynA7LhdZjIdy-bA2glCD5Rqq5TOiccixQcHWNy6rvy65AA_Icr9uW9elRw7xJbCV3qtqGhwoOvoJ1dvvXajKhyqFyhl7tY2NzxVaQ/s400/Web3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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From there, the forecast gets a bit more hazy as models wrestle with the strength of high pressure to the north of '99L' and the intensity of the system itself. A sampling of the numerous models we look at appears below.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKJuwZgP5b-u2Xvazma0cjKcXp_ONNCqyCJQOHEBigyz8daFFg502gBVy4qzfjiNChaqVy4JHtQR_0Sp8wdkgQvzOXDGrwa2AdT7pt27S1GNFFK740sirQfGQWoA_ih0Rz3yMxIx_viLA/s1600/4+Models.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKJuwZgP5b-u2Xvazma0cjKcXp_ONNCqyCJQOHEBigyz8daFFg502gBVy4qzfjiNChaqVy4JHtQR_0Sp8wdkgQvzOXDGrwa2AdT7pt27S1GNFFK740sirQfGQWoA_ih0Rz3yMxIx_viLA/s400/4+Models.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Looks like everything keeps it east...why are we even worried?</h3>
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Yes, the vast majority of model guidance available as of Wednesday afternoon does keep '99L' and whatever it may become to our east. However, one thing that has given us reason to pause is the usually reliable European model; it has been bouncing all over the Gulf of Mexico with possible tracks in its recent model runs.<br />
<br />The animated gif below shows the last 4 runs of the Euro model. Notice how the forecasts went from the eastern Gulf in one run to Mobile in the next to the LA/TX border in another and back to the eastern Gulf in the latest. When models are behaving like windshield wipers, that decreases our forecast confidence.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr5IX9M2nAUCdk_9pjwVEeKdK4zQ6NcxnQKxwWQ5xpu7ONdZG7Y4W2uIkygHv8eHmlwQDdAVOjbmkwY0dmYxfSR_Hui8ls-iz-k_sZHgaYHBK01oMXBMKhGJ9wQNcKKSvfr2RorZMtcS4/s1600/ezgif.com-add-text+%25281%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr5IX9M2nAUCdk_9pjwVEeKdK4zQ6NcxnQKxwWQ5xpu7ONdZG7Y4W2uIkygHv8eHmlwQDdAVOjbmkwY0dmYxfSR_Hui8ls-iz-k_sZHgaYHBK01oMXBMKhGJ9wQNcKKSvfr2RorZMtcS4/s400/ezgif.com-add-text+%25281%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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One other thing I would tell everyone to watch. IF '99L' is able to get its act together around the Bahamas and south Florida, the models may be underestimating the strength of high pressure that will be to its north. Weaker high pressure allows the system to turn north sooner while a stronger high would keep it going west longer. As tropical systems intensity, they can sometimes 'feed' high pressure systems or make them stronger than anticipated.<br />
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<h3>
Bottom Line</h3>
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As it stands as of 3 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon, the overall threat to our area is still pretty low. I've seen some meteorologists saying that posting model runs or discussing scenarios is reckless at this point and just scares everyone. I see it differently.<br />
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We are a region that is limping along right now. While the threat is low at this point, potential impacts from this system are now less than a week away should it decide to head this way. Everyone should be prepared just in case and given what we're going through right now, I think an early heads up is needed now more than ever.<br />
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Stay safe...stay calm...and we will keep you updated on '99L' which could become Hermine in the coming days.<br />
<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-64067637970366320472016-08-23T15:27:00.000-07:002016-08-23T15:27:42.734-07:00Gulf hurricane talk: fact vs. fictionA category 5 social media storm hit the internet on Tuesday compliments of a singular run of the European weather model. The run in question shows a likely tropical storm hitting south Florida over the weekend before moving into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening into a significant hurricane.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1jeaIIbFJfchkueTolC-peApWvM5Gre7czGqdOi4OICbTOLpcLGhpf1rYM6p5FC4Mf-LOpV8R-TUPT6YUytJ8de3FPzNJCy9CX2j0sRiuavywFxVMJau8wAodyqvDXLacNGsuYIRT3K0/s1600/Euro+10m+edit.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1jeaIIbFJfchkueTolC-peApWvM5Gre7czGqdOi4OICbTOLpcLGhpf1rYM6p5FC4Mf-LOpV8R-TUPT6YUytJ8de3FPzNJCy9CX2j0sRiuavywFxVMJau8wAodyqvDXLacNGsuYIRT3K0/s400/Euro+10m+edit.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: WeatherBell / valid Mon. PM, Aug. 29, 2016</td></tr>
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<h3>
<span style="color: #274e13;">Fact: All we have right now is a poorly-organized tropical wave</span></h3>
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<div>
The model is developing a hurricane from what stands today as only a very poorly-organized tropical wave with a broad, ill-defined circulation. The Hurricane Hunters confirmed this with a flight on Tuesday, but truthfully, satellite told us all we needed to know about the system at this point.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4HiJMIanCgrb9eNcpYVbkXzHX5hU2oe6Bdrwm9utyLjfrwffr7KcskrZF-zG-b8DEh5Uqh91naJxHYXJAaXpVhLDjsQ2Mw7aYQ8XBmHHXesFgmRLRHeHGMCnq3IvZej2rlKSPM1DN9qs/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4HiJMIanCgrb9eNcpYVbkXzHX5hU2oe6Bdrwm9utyLjfrwffr7KcskrZF-zG-b8DEh5Uqh91naJxHYXJAaXpVhLDjsQ2Mw7aYQ8XBmHHXesFgmRLRHeHGMCnq3IvZej2rlKSPM1DN9qs/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<h3>
<br /><span style="color: #990000;">Fiction: We are certain that the system will develop</span></h3>
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<div>
The National Hurricane Center is currently giving the disturbance, deemed Invest 99L, a 60% chance of development in the next 5 days. Those are relatively high odds but also represent a 4-in-10 chance that nothing happens with this through the weekend. In the short term, 99L has to fight off wind shear and some dry air. As it eventually gets closer to the Bahamas late in the week and into the weekend, conditions look as though they may be more favorable....IF it survives that long.</div>
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<h3>
<span style="color: #274e13;">Fact: Tropical systems are notoriously difficult to forecast in their formative stages</span></h3>
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Until we have an organized area of low pressure with concentrated t-storm activity, take any model projections you see online for 99L with a BIG grain of salt. Models are notoriously bad with both track and intensity in the early stages of development. Michael Lowry with The Weather Channel tweeted a great graphic from the National Hurricane Center that supports this point. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFfwNgGq0qBQyQ0Ao5Se2a8GedPatcykXYjOPEkfs3-td56YTmmsnHQ14maP_LudnVL-Yiin3vnCT1NH4jHe3psdsB9XlF5y9cnehiOXFeUxGhyphenhyphenXMqyNdXlsXxi6xJIyTek3kDxtOCgA8/s1600/Errors.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFfwNgGq0qBQyQ0Ao5Se2a8GedPatcykXYjOPEkfs3-td56YTmmsnHQ14maP_LudnVL-Yiin3vnCT1NH4jHe3psdsB9XlF5y9cnehiOXFeUxGhyphenhyphenXMqyNdXlsXxi6xJIyTek3kDxtOCgA8/s400/Errors.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: National Hurricane Center</td></tr>
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The graphic above is limited to systems that have at least become a tropical depression or stronger, so you can imagine with a poorly-organized tropical wave like we have now the error only grows.</div>
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<h3>
<span style="color: #660000;">Fiction: If 99L does develop, we know where it's going</span></h3>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Most of our forecast guidance is in agreement that 99L should be somewhere in the vicinity of the Bahamas by late this week or this weekend. But while the European model shows a strengthening tropical storm, the GFS never really develops the disturbance.</div>
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<div>
Should it develop, the European model suggests strong high pressure along the East Coast would leave 99L with little choice but to head westward toward the Gulf of Mexico. However, if we look at the European ensemble forecasts -- 51 runs of the European model with slightly different starting conditions in each run -- you see there's quite the spread on where the center of low pressure associated with 99L may actually go.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxlVnGIOZ3dWVFUbaaAjRnL3fQ8Ky7UTykT2Wt-2Aujv0KRh7UhBvzONNsdPMyeySKmVojU_Sk09mjVa8UknPb4nFqhuMZxtYMuc_gytGxybtUNpFVT8g8r_kmV3q5MI2ntqKCBsuHUPU/s1600/Euro+Ensemble+Lows+edit.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxlVnGIOZ3dWVFUbaaAjRnL3fQ8Ky7UTykT2Wt-2Aujv0KRh7UhBvzONNsdPMyeySKmVojU_Sk09mjVa8UknPb4nFqhuMZxtYMuc_gytGxybtUNpFVT8g8r_kmV3q5MI2ntqKCBsuHUPU/s400/Euro+Ensemble+Lows+edit.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: WeatherBell / valid Tues. PM, Aug. 30, 2016</td></tr>
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In the map above, each red 'L' represents the forecast location of the low pressure center from a single ensemble member of the European model. Note that the possibilities extend all the way from the Carolinas to Mexico. When we see a map like this, it's an obvious cue that forecast confidence is fairly low at this point.</div>
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<h3>
Bottom Line</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Given the historic flooding we've experienced over the last couple of weeks, it is completely understandable that any talk of a tropical system in the Gulf would put us a bit on edge. And, in fact, we all should keep a close eye on 99L in the coming days.</div>
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But understand that we are in the formative stages right now and uncertainty is very high on both the future track and intensity of 99L.</div>
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<div>
In a worst case scenario, impacts to our area would be roughly a week away. However, please remember that odds of this system heading our way are still quite low at this point. Stay alert and follow us in the coming days for additional updates.</div>
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Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-74308520531020053362016-08-09T13:38:00.002-07:002016-08-10T07:15:37.070-07:00S. Louisiana Radar Vulnerability Revealed Again Last WeekFor the second time in less than 6 months, much of south Louisiana was left without reliable radar coverage in the midst of an ongoing severe weather event last Thursday, August 4th. Big storms rolling through the region delivered a lightning strike to the National Weather Service Doppler Radar in Slidell that took it out of commission for more than an hour.<br />
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I previously wrote a <a href="http://www.wafb.com/story/31356446/commentary-is-a-gap-in-south-louisiana-radar-coverage-putting-lives-at-risk" target="_blank">detailed post</a> in the wake of the record tornado outbreak in late February about how poor radar coverage and a lack of redundancy may be putting lives at risk in parts of south Louisiana. In the midst of that historic outbreak, a lightning strike also took down out the radar in Slidell. After reading that post, <a href="http://www.wafb.com/story/31866944/la-congressman-proposes-bill-to-close-gap-in-weather-radar-coverage" target="_blank">Congressman Charles Boustany and his staff drafted legislation</a> that would attempt to give metro Baton Rouge and much of south Louisiana better radar coverage.<br />
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<h3>
3:18 PM -- Radar down</h3>
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The National Weather Service sent out notice at 3:18 p.m. on Thursday that the radar in Slidell was down until further notice. While the message below doesn't state it, forecasters quickly let us know in a closed chat room (open to media, emergency managers, etc.) that the culprit was lightning.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi95WESyIPJj2b8Ytve9gw_xgnTZ8NjJymsuTAjiFfSGDaYrgyaQUrLV3JiAS1x8t9Kp_LjQTLxDlDwxS0Zvi0VFF6zgzr3bWrve0bsSpNBrLSQr4JQmuM39XTP066LTqCDfmil70cydqg/s1600/Radar+Down.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi95WESyIPJj2b8Ytve9gw_xgnTZ8NjJymsuTAjiFfSGDaYrgyaQUrLV3JiAS1x8t9Kp_LjQTLxDlDwxS0Zvi0VFF6zgzr3bWrve0bsSpNBrLSQr4JQmuM39XTP066LTqCDfmil70cydqg/s1600/Radar+Down.PNG" /></a></div>
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<h3>
<br /><br />~3:30 PM -- Funnel cloud/tornado reported in New Orleans</h3>
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Roughly 10-15 minutes after lightning took out the radar in Slidell, images and videos quickly started surfacing on social media showing a funnel cloud and possible tornado over New Orleans.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en" width="350">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Hmmmm, time to run? New Orleans right now... <a href="https://t.co/WcEQruqeEQ">pic.twitter.com/WcEQruqeEQ</a></div>
— Bob Warren (@bobwarren66) <a href="https://twitter.com/bobwarren66/status/761299129469431812">August 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<h3>
3:35 PM -- Severe T-Storm Warning issued for New Orleans</h3>
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Minutes <i>after</i> pictures of the funnel cloud and tornado started circulating on social media, the first Severe T-Storm Warning was issued for New Orleans. In other words, it appears as though the first warning came <i>after</i> the tornado had already touched down and done its damage. And it wasn't a Tornado Warning, but rather a Severe T-Storm Warning relaying the potential for 60 mile per hour winds.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMXfZ0pIWq_5SDTmm8Jozre4ffMFQf96GQMmwI6n0jcrQbFYxy5pGn08F_99AyHqziC8qX2SOOxE2CPDcsOGvuKk9T5Nk0G43QMHE5AkH7A4VBpMIwQcNQrwUWDeccRownjcb3Hh4BYC4/s1600/Severe+TStorm+Warning.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMXfZ0pIWq_5SDTmm8Jozre4ffMFQf96GQMmwI6n0jcrQbFYxy5pGn08F_99AyHqziC8qX2SOOxE2CPDcsOGvuKk9T5Nk0G43QMHE5AkH7A4VBpMIwQcNQrwUWDeccRownjcb3Hh4BYC4/s400/Severe+TStorm+Warning.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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To be fair, post-storm surveys rated the tornado an EF-0, the weakest rating on the <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html" target="_blank">Enhanced Fujita scale</a>, with maximum winds estimated around 80 miles per hour. These tornadoes are generally brief and small and can easily escape radar detection. However, I think it's fair to consider whether the radar outage in Slidell hampered the ability of the National Weather Service forecasters to issue warnings in a timely fashion on this storm.<br />
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Forecasters were likely monitoring a less powerful terminal Doppler Radar in St. Charles Parish whose primary mission is to cover weather around Louis Armstrong Airport in Kenner, but it's unclear what, if anything, that radar was detecting at the time of the New Orleans storms. Otherwise, the next best view would have come from a radar roughly 125 miles away in Mobile versus 25 miles away in Slidell.<br />
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4:12 PM -- Severe T-Storm Warning issued for East Baton Rouge</h3>
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This one I've referred to as the bogus warning of the day. That's not a slam on my colleagues at the National Weather Service. Rather, with the radar outage in Slidell, there simply is not a good backup view of what's happening here in Baton Rouge. The terminal Doppler Radar in St. Charles doesn't have the range to cover our area. The next closest radars are 120 miles (Fort Polk), 130 miles (Lake Charles), and 180 miles (Mobile, AL) away from downtown Baton Rouge.<br />
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Forecasters admitted on that day that the warning was issued out of an abundance of caution given what had already occurred with the severe weather in New Orleans and other storms on the North Shore of Lake Pontchartrain that had produced wind gusts of 55-65 mph. As it turned out, it was more of a garden-variety type storm and I strongly believe would have never received a warning had the radar in Slidell been functioning.<br />
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4:39 PM -- Radar returned to service</h3>
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Hats off to the technicians at the National Weather Service in Slidell who were able to get the radar back online less than 2 hours after it took the hit. However, at this point, the severe weather was essentially ending around the area, meaning the radar was out of service when it was needed most. And at least it was restored quicker than the February 23rd lightning strike which had the radar down for the better part of a day.<br />
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But we're back to what I posted about in the wake of the February tornado outbreak. Metro Baton Rouge and much of south Louisiana have relatively poor radar coverage and once the radar in Slidell goes down, forecasters are almost flying blind. That's a scary thought for an area prone to so much active weather.<br />
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I hope that this will once again draw some needed attention to our radar vulnerability and help garner some additional support for Rep. Boustany's bill that would attempt to fill in this coverage gap here and elsewhere around the country.<br />
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You can track the progress of Rep. Boustany's 'RADAR Act' by <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr5089" target="_blank">clicking here</a>.<br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-37809349116690563132016-03-07T14:17:00.001-08:002016-03-07T14:17:33.599-08:00Monitoring Flooding & Severe Weather Potential for Later in the WeekThe First Alert Storm Team is continuing to monitor the potential for flooding rains and severe weather later in the week. A slow-moving, potent storm system already producing flooding rains and severe weather in parts of California is the one that could be problematic for us in the coming days.<div>
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Here's what we know: parts of the Southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast are all but certain to receive excessive rainfall in the coming days. The devil lies in the details. It's difficult, if not almost impossible to pinpoint which areas will be hardest hit but we're gradually getting a better idea of where the greatest threats may lie.</div>
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Locally, we can expect scattered showers and a few t-storms to arrive by Tuesday afternoon, but neither flooding rains nor severe weather is anticipated in this initial round of wet weather. Those threats should remain to our west on Tuesday.</div>
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Our latest model runs have even started to indicate a somewhat slower arrival of the most active showers and t-storms, perhaps holding off until late Wednesday or even Thursday. It's during this timeframe though that severe weather appears to be possible along with our first real threat of locally heavy rains. The Storm Prediction Center does have areas from near Baton Rouge westward under a 'Slight Risk' of severe weather during this time, with a lower 'Marginal Risk' east of Baton Rouge.</div>
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The biggest threat to the greatest number of people during the remainder of the week will be heavy, potentially flooding rainfall. In a modestly encouraging trend, our last couple of rounds of computer model guidance have trimmed back forecast rain numbers. However, we still think widespread totals of 3" to 6" will be common in the WAFB viewing area through Saturday, with the potential for much higher amounts in localized areas. As it stands right now, a greater threat appears to be for areas near the Louisiana/Texas line extending northward to the ArkLaTex.</div>
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While the greatest threat does appear to be to our west, the weather pattern expected later in the week will favor the development of 'training' bands of t-storms -- clusters of storms moving over the same areas like train cars moving along a track. Anyone unfortunate enough to caught underneath one of these bands could easily pick up rains in excess of the 3" to 6" we're currently forecasting on average across the area.</div>
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With the expected heavy rains, we'll also have to monitor rising river levels later in the week. Additionally, persistent southerly winds mean that coastal flooding could be an issue in spots. Those southerly winds would also result in water backing up in the lower reaches of the Amite and Tickfaw river basins, slowing the ability of rain water to drain into Lake Maurepas.</div>
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Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-77647041823743597092016-03-01T09:05:00.000-08:002016-03-01T09:05:24.436-08:00Commentary: Is a gap in south Louisiana radar coverage putting lives at risk?The final numbers are in -- 12 tornadoes touched down on what was a terrible Tuesday, February 23rd for south Louisiana. Included in that count were some monster twisters like the EF-3 from northern Assumption Parish that went on to devastate the Sugar Hill RV Park in Convent as an EF-2, leaving 2 dead and as many as 75 injured. Let's not forget the EF-2 that injured 17 in LaPlace or the EF-2 that plowed through Livingston with one woman hanging on to her bathroom door for dear life as the entire top of her home was sheared off.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifv7ejar-Dj3vDs8-TASyRqMMD64mAu3k6f9eOOiBcP-Zf6MroeFCaLKaFuzHrYruzdpdbdaVlSEflOEr5FIRmnYFhAwbcVg2OTUDXUS8AasLJjRel9M7I6d0jcH-cnd7d0rN4yjnkRmg/s1600/Livingston+Parish.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifv7ejar-Dj3vDs8-TASyRqMMD64mAu3k6f9eOOiBcP-Zf6MroeFCaLKaFuzHrYruzdpdbdaVlSEflOEr5FIRmnYFhAwbcVg2OTUDXUS8AasLJjRel9M7I6d0jcH-cnd7d0rN4yjnkRmg/s400/Livingston+Parish.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Leveled home near Willow Street in Livingston. (Source: WAFB)</td></tr>
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It appears to be the worst tornado outbreak on record for south Louisiana in records that date back to 1950.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW18bjQrZQd5sl4iB6_SCjLd7ZcBMCkKq_Ow0xFeVsvRaUMTXohWG3nCqlgKOQmW8U5aITxwlYVXOYGVsSbusHc46ir44myjQ_ra1gJoXNzfxCYlnaQcCPRMhnOqEfOgqS5qNO1d-zkc8/s1600/Feb+2016+Confirmed+Tornadoes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW18bjQrZQd5sl4iB6_SCjLd7ZcBMCkKq_Ow0xFeVsvRaUMTXohWG3nCqlgKOQmW8U5aITxwlYVXOYGVsSbusHc46ir44myjQ_ra1gJoXNzfxCYlnaQcCPRMhnOqEfOgqS5qNO1d-zkc8/s400/Feb+2016+Confirmed+Tornadoes.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of the 12 confirmed tornadoes in south Louisiana on Feb. 23, 2016.</td></tr>
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And it could have been worse, much worse, if not for the heroic efforts of forecasters at the National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge office in Slidell issuing rapid-fire warnings for the tornado-producing storms on Tuesday.<br />
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But I noticed something on that day that most of you probably didn't. There were a few tornadoes that got very little warning and at least one that got none at all. That particular storm actually fell under the warning responsibility of the National Weather Service Lake Charles office.<br />
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<b>But let me be clear: the lack of warning is by no fault of forecasters with the National Weather Service</b>.<br />
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The issue, I believe, stems mostly from poor, if not unacceptable radar coverage for parts of south Louisiana.<br />
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<br />The Problem: Poor Radar Coverage</h3>
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The map below shows National Weather Service NEXRAD (Next-generation Radar) Doppler radar coverage at 4,000 feet and below (green), and 6,000 feet and below (yellow). Earth's curvature and the fact that radar is tilted a minimum of 0.5° above horizontal while scanning mean that the radar beam gradually gets higher and higher the farther it gets away from the radar site. What stands out is that because of the curvature and tilt issues, areas from Baton Rouge to Lafayette southward to the coast and northward toward Natchez, Mississippi have no radar coverage in the key atmospheric levels needed for tornado detection. The nearest NEXRAD radars to Baton Rouge are 80 miles to the east in Slidell and 120 miles to the west in Lake Charles.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilvH-5YmqumCTEffYLbhXbFgnegXbmp1OD9nOx9OZDLt6SNH-vw8hBYlU0yK5bop4lZ_sJsZGwumdp2DUHzaCkMEVWeodY_kwZyU7R6uKXB6CJ8bJuqMteMfNB6tlcWVZx29jgNtVbruE/s1600/South+Louisiana+Coverage.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilvH-5YmqumCTEffYLbhXbFgnegXbmp1OD9nOx9OZDLt6SNH-vw8hBYlU0yK5bop4lZ_sJsZGwumdp2DUHzaCkMEVWeodY_kwZyU7R6uKXB6CJ8bJuqMteMfNB6tlcWVZx29jgNtVbruE/s400/South+Louisiana+Coverage.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radar coverage at ≤4,000 feet (green) and at ≤6,000 feet (yellow). (Source: NOAA/NCEI)</td></tr>
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A wider view of the same map shows that Baton Rouge appears to be the second largest city anywhere in the southern U.S. without reliable NEXRAD radar coverage, with only Charlotte, NC having a larger population of people with such poor coverage. Later in this article, you'll see how meteorologists and leaders in Charlotte have taken action to address that problem.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvL13zhrO2bds4TgQ5CIYd_gvDDBJSogpNH4wbHNoUcJz3yfNZYodB5K2Kp_hWxXP3TmIC7Ta54w1qsBqQWYMPerDCAx54SHZBfn6jmKnnisbz_39Jro7oErHKgQ1HE3Y0sU7heo6H1i0/s1600/Radar+Coverage+Southern+US.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvL13zhrO2bds4TgQ5CIYd_gvDDBJSogpNH4wbHNoUcJz3yfNZYodB5K2Kp_hWxXP3TmIC7Ta54w1qsBqQWYMPerDCAx54SHZBfn6jmKnnisbz_39Jro7oErHKgQ1HE3Y0sU7heo6H1i0/s400/Radar+Coverage+Southern+US.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Radar coverage at ≤4,000 feet (green) and at ≤6,000 feet (yellow). (Source: NOAA/NCEI)</span></td></tr>
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If we look at areas with radar coverage at 6,000 - 10,000 feet (blue in map below), metro Baton Rouge finally gets into the mix, but there are still portions of south Louisiana left out. Much of St. Mary Parish remains without good radar coverage even at this level, including areas around Franklin and Baldwin. And as it turns out, that's one of the areas where a tornado was missed on Tuesday. No warning was ever issued, but an EF-1 touched down in that area according to the National Weather Service Lake Charles. Two businesses and 28 homes were damaged, along with 20 telephone poles being snapped.<br />
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And, oh by the way, it was this same severe thunderstorm that went on to produce an EF-3 tornado near Paincourtville and EF-2 damage and casualties in Convent. I don't think it was coincidence that the St. Mary Parish tornado came and went without a warning.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMC3yQyfs5jcdSnYiqAEncoXkv2-L4ZS4ON1wxpUD_LgI7eW-x36wQBeQqIbpvQojBm9383tNmgzhJkKiakCMrYoxHRYFa2we9Gq1iyt2wg-cOAkuAj6xRs6fSl4uhkzRaeRKD92KS05g/s1600/St+Mary+Tornado.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMC3yQyfs5jcdSnYiqAEncoXkv2-L4ZS4ON1wxpUD_LgI7eW-x36wQBeQqIbpvQojBm9383tNmgzhJkKiakCMrYoxHRYFa2we9Gq1iyt2wg-cOAkuAj6xRs6fSl4uhkzRaeRKD92KS05g/s400/St+Mary+Tornado.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Same as above with coverage of ≤10,000 feet added in blue. The location of a confirmed EF-1 tornado in St. Mary Parish is shown, clearly in an area with poor radar coverage. (Source: NOAA/NCEI & Steve Caparotta)</span></td></tr>
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Secondary Problem: Little Reliable Backup</h3>
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In another illustration of our radar coverage vulnerability in south Louisiana, a lightning strike took down the National Weather Service Doppler radar in Slidell just before 5 p.m. on Tuesday as severe weather was ongoing. The map below shows that there were 2 active Tornado Warnings in southeast Louisiana at that time in addition to ongoing Tornado Watches. The radar wasn't restored to service until late the next day, meaning the National Weather Service in Slidell had to rely primarily on the radar in Mobile, Alabama to issue warnings for southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi.<br />
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There is also a Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) located in St. Charles Parish that can supplement coverage as needed, but it's much lower power than the NWS NEXRAD radars and has a much shorter range. It does NOT provide reliable coverage of Baton Rouge or much of the area in south Louisiana's radar gap. The TDWR located in St. Charles Parish was installed primarily to aid in wind shear and heavy rain detection for Louis Armstrong International Airport in Kenner.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAubMgksHhAyWu4biKuh6rI0FchILodgdevhccERyErcL7ex-LnfEzwmSU57GiGCmYELmlC9MLjvDcUrSu6059SmV_AOcwvOa0ZRo3-kbVPtwQDa_vERgP7uu5SgmXVyMb2UaPknMziFs/s1600/Radar+Down.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAubMgksHhAyWu4biKuh6rI0FchILodgdevhccERyErcL7ex-LnfEzwmSU57GiGCmYELmlC9MLjvDcUrSu6059SmV_AOcwvOa0ZRo3-kbVPtwQDa_vERgP7uu5SgmXVyMb2UaPknMziFs/s400/Radar+Down.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radar from 4:50 p.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016 with current watches and warnings overlaid. (Credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet)<br />
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Now imagine this nightmare scenario. That same lightning strike happens 2 hours sooner and meteorologists are left 'flying blind' (or close to it) as the powerful EF-3 tornado strikes Assumption Parish and continues as an EF-2 into St. James killing 2 and injuring dozens more. Several people in those areas have credited the warnings for saving their lives. Had the radar in Slidell gone down just a little earlier, those warnings may not have been issued and the casualty numbers could have been much higher.<br />
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<h3>
The Solution?</h3>
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Chances are if you've made it this far into the article, you now understand and agree that south Louisiana needs better radar coverage. So why don't we have it? As is the case with so many things in life, much of it boils down to dollars and cents.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.nap.edu/read/12438/chapter/4#12" target="_blank">installation cost for a new Doppler radar runs into the millions of dollars</a> and some estimates indicate annual maintenance and upkeep can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars.<br />
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Additionally, you need a team of qualified personnel both to operate and maintain a radar at any given location. That's why our nation's Doppler radars are most often collocated with National Weather Service offices.<br />
<br />
In the wake of an undetected tornado near Charlotte, NC in 2012, <a href="http://www.burr.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Metropolitan%20Weather%20Hazards%20Protection%20Act%20-%20Final.pdf" target="_blank">a bill was introduced in Congress</a> that would require a radar within 55 miles of cities with a population of at least 700,000. If passed, that solves Charlotte's problem, but certainly not ours in south Louisiana.<br />
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I do think our Louisiana congressional delegation should lobby for a new NEXRAD installation near or around Baton Rouge, but if that doesn't occur or fails to gain traction, there are other possible solutions.<br />
<br />
The University of Louisiana at Monroe (ULM) recently completed installation of a Doppler radar that was funded by a $3 million grant through the Louisiana Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP). That radar is set to go online any day now.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnbp8tGOmolAQeWD5ospae1RLUHh44FMVw8dcmsYsXWoDGZPRC6oczeyMQUKPpuIBp5O1BdMpE6tl9DaVro54Wc92m0ChysKqalERR87yeKtMlwlIpEoEwK6O3lbeKsgeiU0I1MA96MkM/s1600/UL+Monroe+Radar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnbp8tGOmolAQeWD5ospae1RLUHh44FMVw8dcmsYsXWoDGZPRC6oczeyMQUKPpuIBp5O1BdMpE6tl9DaVro54Wc92m0ChysKqalERR87yeKtMlwlIpEoEwK6O3lbeKsgeiU0I1MA96MkM/s320/UL+Monroe+Radar.jpg" width="222" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">New Doppler Radar at ULM. (Creidt: ULM)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
ULM's radar is a great step forward and one that I believe was needed in northeast Louisiana. It also gives an added boost to ULM's Atmospheric Sciences program which has produced a number of very talented and successful meteorologists through the years.<br />
<br />
But what a shame that an area centered around our state's capital has some of the poorest radar coverage in our state and is also among the poorest in the U.S. What a shame that an area that houses so much of the state's industry and its 'chemical corridor' -- an area that one could argue is very vulnerable to severe weather -- has very little reliable coverage.<br />
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The map below shows the number of lightning flashes per square mile from 2005-2014. If lightning is assumed to be a rough proxy for 'active' or potentially severe weather, it becomes clear that one would be hard pressed to find an area anywhere in the U.S. more in need of better radar coverage or where there would be better bang for the buck on a new installation.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ3eMCaydPKQ7FhVhhwHJd4Fum6kIoQEVU03F56AVsicUu7eyvA4sepZQN2SP55JwmQRYU1AszOQV-aQFVGdissL_Xo0Cjv1s97LmjPxpvFTmTFO2GWsH4O9M-HrItWm_xuyO8Ezi2OkU/s1600/Lightning+Flash+Density.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ3eMCaydPKQ7FhVhhwHJd4Fum6kIoQEVU03F56AVsicUu7eyvA4sepZQN2SP55JwmQRYU1AszOQV-aQFVGdissL_Xo0Cjv1s97LmjPxpvFTmTFO2GWsH4O9M-HrItWm_xuyO8Ezi2OkU/s400/Lightning+Flash+Density.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Number of lightning flashes per square mile, 2005-2014. (Credit: Vaisala)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The way I see it, there's a real opportunity for our local and state leaders to lobby hard for an installation near or at LSU. The state's flagship university is home to a long-standing, well-respected Geography Department that houses a number of faculty with weather and climate backgrounds. I am currently a graduate student in that department pursuing my Ph.D., having already completed my master's degree at LSU in 2008.<br />
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LSU is also home to both the Louisiana State Office of Climatology and the Southern Regional Climate Center, an agency that collects and disseminates weather and climate information for multiple states in the South.<br />
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I believe a joint effort by the Dept. of Geography, the climate centers housed at LSU, LSU President F. King Alexander, the National Weather Service, and our congressional delegation could go a long way in trying to secure a badly-needed radar for Baton Rouge and surrounding areas. Not only could it be a life-saving device, but also an invaluable recruiting and research tool for multiple programs at LSU.<br />
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I know money is tight, but let's get moving on this. Lives could depend on it.<br />
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<br />
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<br />
<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-33909167499372148142016-02-15T07:40:00.000-08:002016-02-15T07:40:07.593-08:00Strong to Severe Storms Possible TodayA Tornado Watch has been posted for much of the WAFB viewing area through 6 p.m. this evening.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0AhNeHSJKsgBI7X-adRFhdTAuhUrGE6vcLR6s-h4im6t1QrnkuD3kUYohqInMcYgyTYyqjFm3Jo0jOnoSr_1XbqS4KVOhzhicgph0AYW_kGDmf2hZ2NbZvzD0YOuRLWYRdj9x-j6Qy30/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0AhNeHSJKsgBI7X-adRFhdTAuhUrGE6vcLR6s-h4im6t1QrnkuD3kUYohqInMcYgyTYyqjFm3Jo0jOnoSr_1XbqS4KVOhzhicgph0AYW_kGDmf2hZ2NbZvzD0YOuRLWYRdj9x-j6Qy30/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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An approaching cold front will produce numerous showers and t-storms today, with the main action expected to arrive in metro Baton Rouge near or shortly after lunchtime. You can see that computer model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, showing the main line moving into Baton Rouge roughly around 1 p.m.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXzB1skRo4llheX3nm43ZuTB5dPzggAySK5WYtxTbt13Sb5TZB_PR1hTZ4ub7G3SmZGL6n_U0LZm8lhphb-yz8jX2KxLSpDc2ehrEdMBxmSP_YmRAKl3JQKudORC7ATm2crPKo9urekH8/s1600/RPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXzB1skRo4llheX3nm43ZuTB5dPzggAySK5WYtxTbt13Sb5TZB_PR1hTZ4ub7G3SmZGL6n_U0LZm8lhphb-yz8jX2KxLSpDc2ehrEdMBxmSP_YmRAKl3JQKudORC7ATm2crPKo9urekH8/s400/RPM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrEhQc-MtafwToAW6aDZ9B8HncPJL8YWpR-A3Y11-GOIVvQDol8PeKE9mJjf2bdzDV_N4yiHBa-QhRTHCe0iyvkLRNzPv6dywOreMyzhB3fwF7LDO5vz31G2PVY8kBrcakks3exIXBWlI/s1600/HRRR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrEhQc-MtafwToAW6aDZ9B8HncPJL8YWpR-A3Y11-GOIVvQDol8PeKE9mJjf2bdzDV_N4yiHBa-QhRTHCe0iyvkLRNzPv6dywOreMyzhB3fwF7LDO5vz31G2PVY8kBrcakks3exIXBWlI/s400/HRRR.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The primary threats from any strong storms will be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG0VYA3f8BRIFSR75AVAE1-ajbF4FJNKsJa3YfV_XtpmBTlgLH3wWUC2yaV3nbGJ3LOig7pBI4lK0BoHJ1tXEhy6rdOF6AgJC70zwTVsZEEgIBjzdbLfFMWZuKAXUwk2DLsB2zqmle7MQ/s1600/Web2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG0VYA3f8BRIFSR75AVAE1-ajbF4FJNKsJa3YfV_XtpmBTlgLH3wWUC2yaV3nbGJ3LOig7pBI4lK0BoHJ1tXEhy6rdOF6AgJC70zwTVsZEEgIBjzdbLfFMWZuKAXUwk2DLsB2zqmle7MQ/s400/Web2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Storms should end from west-to-east by late afternoon into early evening as the cold front moves eastward.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTSAks4UMll-S8eFkU0FwYPNrff6dBBXu5MBClrN_WJP6TJ1xs1g5CFo4W6cBmxuHsBigMuKrpC5xRHYlh4g0Yim5bWowElrOCzEEmgrmUp-CgWx0EFoh-OiHYDToxkH877NFIFmgVRQE/s1600/Web3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTSAks4UMll-S8eFkU0FwYPNrff6dBBXu5MBClrN_WJP6TJ1xs1g5CFo4W6cBmxuHsBigMuKrpC5xRHYlh4g0Yim5bWowElrOCzEEmgrmUp-CgWx0EFoh-OiHYDToxkH877NFIFmgVRQE/s400/Web3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Stay with the WAFB First Alert Storm Team on air and online for updates as needed through the day. If you witness any severe weather, relay your reports to us by sending pictures and/or video to 9reports@wafb.com or through our Facebook and Twitter accounts.Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-29729604433215359022016-01-27T14:14:00.001-08:002016-01-27T14:19:38.506-08:00Blizzard of 2016 -- could it ever happen here?The Blizzard of 2016. Snowmageddon. Snowzilla. Jonas. That thing that made the U.S. House of Representatives <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/25/senate-will-curtail-week-because-of-snow-house-cancels-votes/?_r=0" target="_blank">cancel all votes for an entire week</a>. Call it what you want, but the winter storm that raked parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this past weekend was a beast.<br />
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Widespread snow totals of 1 to 3 feet were recorded, with the largest daily snowfall on record measured in New York City's Central Park (26.6"). Record and near-record snows were also measured in other major cities, including Baltimore, Washington D.C., and Philadelphia.<br />
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<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BA91pX4kH5n/" style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">A photo posted by Özgür Donmaz (@ozgurdonmaz)</a> on <time datetime="2016-01-25T14:58:41+00:00" style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px;">Jan 25, 2016 at 6:58am PST</time></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Snowy scene from Central Park in New York City posted by Instagram user @ozgurdonmaz</span></div>
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So could a winter storm of that magnitude ever occur here along the Gulf Coast?<br />
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No way, right?<br />
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You might be surprised.<br />
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On the 14th and 15th of February 1895, Mother Nature produced a snowstorm in the Deep South that seems inconceivable to those of us who have spent our entire lives along the Gulf Coast. One to two feet of snow fell in many spots around south Louisiana, including a still standing record of 12.5" here in Baton Rouge. And in the "Frog Capital of the World", Rayne, LA, a city used to dealing with frog-strangling rains instead was buried under 24", or 2 <i>feet</i> of snow. Coming in a close second was Lake Charles with a total of 22".<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiERA24h80RDlK6T6H__uwt3Q6J8CtyCmf9UCBdcAYNWNiDhlSTygYj06Y4ak-Znz8icVhNeNCq-Rp9yalvra816Xh4qAiSnavJbKPe3kml0pct2mLzLojsyv20sXnOGgOFLGpfS0I3s6I/s1600/Feb1895+Snowfall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiERA24h80RDlK6T6H__uwt3Q6J8CtyCmf9UCBdcAYNWNiDhlSTygYj06Y4ak-Znz8icVhNeNCq-Rp9yalvra816Xh4qAiSnavJbKPe3kml0pct2mLzLojsyv20sXnOGgOFLGpfS0I3s6I/s400/Feb1895+Snowfall.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Selected snow totals from February 14-15, 1895 was published in <i>Monthly Weather Review</i>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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What makes the 1895 event even more impressive is that the next biggest snowstorm in Baton Rouge produced 6" of snow in 1914, or a half-foot less than that record value. Further examination of the biggest snow events for Baton Rouge shows that we've recorded no more than 3.5" in a single storm since World War I.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqnn2eIgWH41jRpaFsvb53ch1Uf97E82g5-dncFQI1zxuV7K0CvdzD8TZ0s0TMX_Q9lxzSKxFp0E_3kLA9s_oQQmS2BDMy4uHE7-G8xq_F3nQygIXjcCACcvZBxYIzF3rvOteRIZ-Hta0/s1600/BTR+Biggest+Snowfalls.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqnn2eIgWH41jRpaFsvb53ch1Uf97E82g5-dncFQI1zxuV7K0CvdzD8TZ0s0TMX_Q9lxzSKxFp0E_3kLA9s_oQQmS2BDMy4uHE7-G8xq_F3nQygIXjcCACcvZBxYIzF3rvOteRIZ-Hta0/s400/BTR+Biggest+Snowfalls.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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How do we know about the 1895 snowstorm along the Gulf Coast? Information is limited, but a brief account of the impacts in Louisiana can be found in the American Meteorological Society's publication <i>Monthly Weather Review</i>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxk7-oltNZLeXmdJNubqwYrRSGOt2RstnDyWOJ_kp5GZy_KG6QLWA0d2OreQEBj8AqrjaYcAmLv6YxZd_eabfzh9dFn2Lega5PcrSWiGa802qcRPJ0NUnL0YskMqI_-cSQRDi1QBUhIFE/s1600/1895+Snow+Impacts+Mon+Wea+Rev.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="26" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxk7-oltNZLeXmdJNubqwYrRSGOt2RstnDyWOJ_kp5GZy_KG6QLWA0d2OreQEBj8AqrjaYcAmLv6YxZd_eabfzh9dFn2Lega5PcrSWiGa802qcRPJ0NUnL0YskMqI_-cSQRDi1QBUhIFE/s400/1895+Snow+Impacts+Mon+Wea+Rev.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOFNvVXDu74IgX4XfI6U1zmX6Z8lhCZ4wywbmqLZbH8j8CXhln1t9YvFS3WFaTKYFhTf8b-ktxII6NFbAvTmZbkPoiypqjE6bWteI0Q-ZMbm0WVvH6220UxR5SmwXuYJugHpQko60dXOg/s1600/1895+Snow+Impacts2+Mon+Wea+Rev.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOFNvVXDu74IgX4XfI6U1zmX6Z8lhCZ4wywbmqLZbH8j8CXhln1t9YvFS3WFaTKYFhTf8b-ktxII6NFbAvTmZbkPoiypqjE6bWteI0Q-ZMbm0WVvH6220UxR5SmwXuYJugHpQko60dXOg/s400/1895+Snow+Impacts2+Mon+Wea+Rev.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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My favorite line from that summary is this:<br />
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<i> "Within a week after this extreme cold the ground was covered with a mantle of snow to a depth from a few inches at the Mississippi jetties to as much as two feet in southwest Louisiana."</i><br />
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In other words, the snow extended all the way down to the mouth of the Mississippi River. And "mantle of snow" is a phrase I'll have to tuck away in my back pocket for future snowstorms.<br />
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I've been able to dig up just a couple of pictures from the historic event, one out of New Orleans and the other from Lake Charles.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRZsqvc0-2vx7x8xzXQ76qhTHdrPE_reHspGbClDoWG36DnClx-PMh8sywsZ831zh1NzGDKh2fjNHnCBRTAlqVtr9I-0XpqcHeRK2tdFM8f8j2WNh8Axn86HPh9rAEQfDapqAlIfoZe-o/s1600/New_Orleans_Snow_1895_Canal_Street_shovels_Franck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRZsqvc0-2vx7x8xzXQ76qhTHdrPE_reHspGbClDoWG36DnClx-PMh8sywsZ831zh1NzGDKh2fjNHnCBRTAlqVtr9I-0XpqcHeRK2tdFM8f8j2WNh8Axn86HPh9rAEQfDapqAlIfoZe-o/s400/New_Orleans_Snow_1895_Canal_Street_shovels_Franck.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Canal Street in New Orleans during the February 1895 snowstorm.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC2l5r4f4EZtoIoYzqPpQyGN-cxvjeiNDEXUiBOK-QlVyDzr4n6Ic84Y3YosTJO86AD5ySLZuULdy-pZgf8O784nSZc1FHq6qsJPFLWe2s_VRgk5csgIJKXS51JcF6BnFVNQZzkUMhqxU/s1600/1895+Snow+Lake+Charles.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC2l5r4f4EZtoIoYzqPpQyGN-cxvjeiNDEXUiBOK-QlVyDzr4n6Ic84Y3YosTJO86AD5ySLZuULdy-pZgf8O784nSZc1FHq6qsJPFLWe2s_VRgk5csgIJKXS51JcF6BnFVNQZzkUMhqxU/s400/1895+Snow+Lake+Charles.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lake Charles family in the snow from February 1895. Courtesy: McNeese State University.<br />
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The few accounts of the storm that do exist point toward low pressure moving eastward through the Gulf of Mexico as the likely culprit behind the record snows. That fits what we most often see when there is a threat of ice and/or snow along the Gulf Coast.<br />
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The "Daily Weather Maps" produced by the then U.S. Weather Bureau show a low headed toward the Florida Peninsula by February 15, but the maps likely underestimate the intensity of the low due to the sparsity of weather observations.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH25umMgxI3-JczYE4QGR2kjEx1Nqox9PnBK45PHXShuIhYJTwWCJF5K_LLt3op3BVdwgNhYRHQhWkpJ8UOdSRVeYd3NGixZVsOk6LB8Z-VsX5cEIqD7K-ODcvpqWRKzJWFT8u7Rxhcds/s1600/Daily+Wx+Map+Feb+14+1895.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH25umMgxI3-JczYE4QGR2kjEx1Nqox9PnBK45PHXShuIhYJTwWCJF5K_LLt3op3BVdwgNhYRHQhWkpJ8UOdSRVeYd3NGixZVsOk6LB8Z-VsX5cEIqD7K-ODcvpqWRKzJWFT8u7Rxhcds/s400/Daily+Wx+Map+Feb+14+1895.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Daily Weather Map from the U.S. Weather Bureau for Feb. 14, 1895.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgruZrr2pHeTT2mWoMBepmcgIJ4S3w6PV5vDyH1tOSNvvF8sP4dUhTUI1eie21sJhSueG0erNck-ZuJ9NnwvkvNJq9RyixnYyx3RYFjTIhuG3hZNkIKNl-MfHP-t7leP1xGquB8WJg4UbU/s1600/Daily+Wx+Map+Feb+15+1895.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgruZrr2pHeTT2mWoMBepmcgIJ4S3w6PV5vDyH1tOSNvvF8sP4dUhTUI1eie21sJhSueG0erNck-ZuJ9NnwvkvNJq9RyixnYyx3RYFjTIhuG3hZNkIKNl-MfHP-t7leP1xGquB8WJg4UbU/s400/Daily+Wx+Map+Feb+15+1895.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Daily Weather Map from the U.S. Weather Bureau for Feb. 15, 1895.</span></td></tr>
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So could this ever happen again? Sure. </div>
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Is it likely? Not very. </div>
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We've been through 21 Baton Rouge mayors, 29 Louisiana governors and hurricanes such as Audrey, Betsy, Camille, Andrew, Katrina, Rita and Gustav in the time since we last saw a blockbuster snowstorm in south Louisiana. </div>
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But, hey, the Saints also won a Super Bowl during that stretch. Who ever thought that would happen?</div>
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Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-8955849154326440442015-12-10T06:02:00.000-08:002015-12-10T06:02:12.581-08:00Strong to Severe Storms Possible on SundayFog has been our primary weather concern over the last few days, but our focus is shifting to the potential for some strong to severe storms on Sunday. The storms will be driven by a potent upper-level storm system and associated cold front moving through the Deep South this weekend.<br />
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Storms will begin to develop along and in advance of the cold front in parts of Texas by late Saturday.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiPhFZs8jmRvPSzNX42Hn7YVqMHyJJKkblrXcPtldiU77TCvyBRFni_pgmbAYMBYpYpmExryOM4js3QgBwQS_tq_MNVuuKiJxGQR_Irh5bEeO7nF0LPFuzO2DC2EzUwAqCzmau8iyNN8/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiPhFZs8jmRvPSzNX42Hn7YVqMHyJJKkblrXcPtldiU77TCvyBRFni_pgmbAYMBYpYpmExryOM4js3QgBwQS_tq_MNVuuKiJxGQR_Irh5bEeO7nF0LPFuzO2DC2EzUwAqCzmau8iyNN8/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The Storm Prediction Center has placed eastern Texas, parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and NW Louisiana under a 'slight risk' of severe weather from Saturday into the early morning hours of Sunday due to the anticipated storm development.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpACxESzVDwYIv6jtMU6SMCY2ZoKB0MS4qeVxe9-9X1OUPx-BKk5VVd1L4EUz2XkGCWvArv_dXFaSzZId2xkrUxryPMcwcXRVMcwklNW0nA7O1KEfquw8zBMDFLbIlgP-BFffG86MqNIo/s1600/Web2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpACxESzVDwYIv6jtMU6SMCY2ZoKB0MS4qeVxe9-9X1OUPx-BKk5VVd1L4EUz2XkGCWvArv_dXFaSzZId2xkrUxryPMcwcXRVMcwklNW0nA7O1KEfquw8zBMDFLbIlgP-BFffG86MqNIo/s400/Web2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues a detailed severe weather outlook through 3 days, with a more general summary for days 4 through 8. The latest 'Day 4' outlook covering Sunday still shows the SPC highlighting the potential for severe weather locally. The primary threat from any strong storms would be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRG21nMdTNO1PDTBB-xcQ-uLjhPJ7bWopiHmouSNvnfggURydV8eQ9TOVGbb9ESwjMzT844A2wB4MwuXNeZgBOM5VnHiRF4dG_wZybyiwl1JIlNWiZWkwQmjPz2abQcz_HEsxvZTMqSVE/s1600/Web3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRG21nMdTNO1PDTBB-xcQ-uLjhPJ7bWopiHmouSNvnfggURydV8eQ9TOVGbb9ESwjMzT844A2wB4MwuXNeZgBOM5VnHiRF4dG_wZybyiwl1JIlNWiZWkwQmjPz2abQcz_HEsxvZTMqSVE/s400/Web3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXVdNI53KXUxZ4g9KNAxltATCdeEU3opwmI2w8bxJ4_MpQqcgML-sJ805yCA9G7XHcf4TtYjxEXb0OeB32mwoXFyEVX88UzFIZkGouOtuDznsLg4QXrhHSu6x7FCjC9PKHpvk2-NZyVrQ/s1600/Web4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXVdNI53KXUxZ4g9KNAxltATCdeEU3opwmI2w8bxJ4_MpQqcgML-sJ805yCA9G7XHcf4TtYjxEXb0OeB32mwoXFyEVX88UzFIZkGouOtuDznsLg4QXrhHSu6x7FCjC9PKHpvk2-NZyVrQ/s400/Web4.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The cold front should move through the area fairly quickly on Sunday limiting the potential for flooding rains, but we're still expecting 1" to 2" of rainfall on average, with locally higher amounts.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYP8za-jsf5l4YkPtl_rM8ptYmPxMXZF7f2YIz-t-GYtlPyQNt0sDRxWeuEATBFsMLeLHLE_a_VGOj8N_Nv8SRgHd0rqGMDypjUy9wvPF6Cd4feC0_sn7j2VGk_lwzKjteIko3T4TPAYo/s1600/Rain+Fcst.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYP8za-jsf5l4YkPtl_rM8ptYmPxMXZF7f2YIz-t-GYtlPyQNt0sDRxWeuEATBFsMLeLHLE_a_VGOj8N_Nv8SRgHd0rqGMDypjUy9wvPF6Cd4feC0_sn7j2VGk_lwzKjteIko3T4TPAYo/s400/Rain+Fcst.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The bottom line: make sure you've got a reliable way to keep abreast of any threatening weather that develops on Sunday. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great tool to have in your arsenal and of course we encourage you to download our free weather app at the following links:</div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; line-height: 19.32px;">Apple: </span><a href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fshout.lt%2F42Rq&h=BAQHZFLCfAQEy3M7ygnxHn21Ua6-dmP4C_uTQz248FeDfuA&enc=AZODDcQM_8iMDK1jN9vB3BRy_fqh0lIStNkwBCMs-rZPC2hfYgNzKxtQivdjVzMbbSLfwON9rXnBLlKXVI_qRmipyNe6BY3_YFcPsNEJ9BUqHN05BLNODWweejGhoOmB-0f7i_Tg_kTJ2LNYVa9rwlpgu-hZMIakTyY2CFIGFo1qt-WMuQ63PVnmJRVtA4wwuCZIrE-aVlyWcF3aYERT2yF8&s=1" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; line-height: 19.32px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://shout.lt/42Rq</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; line-height: 19.32px;"> | Android: </span><a href="http://shout.lt/42Q8" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; line-height: 19.32px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://shout.lt/42Q8</a></span></div>
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<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-63603033203934582732015-11-17T13:14:00.001-08:002015-11-17T13:14:51.465-08:00Severe Weather Threat ArrivingWe've warned you for close to a week about to the potential for severe weather and that threat appears to be playing out. A Tornado Watch is posted for metro Baton Rouge and SW Mississippi through 8 p.m., with a Watch for Acadiana and SW Louisiana through 4 p.m.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfI0ezRPwfuNbMxhXh-HnIsRLrNevqxPIEUyfo4IAFtSTNZI1KByiARetZglWZeXrm-dksHMmH3WHrCSRQk7D_paiEwFSzxob7Cix2YsVthHITzAx73TctWXBxPEy2wcA-CtPDqIjqWIo/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfI0ezRPwfuNbMxhXh-HnIsRLrNevqxPIEUyfo4IAFtSTNZI1KByiARetZglWZeXrm-dksHMmH3WHrCSRQk7D_paiEwFSzxob7Cix2YsVthHITzAx73TctWXBxPEy2wcA-CtPDqIjqWIo/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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You may think that with the watch set to expire at 8 p.m. locally, that would mark the end of the severe weather threat. However, we're likely to either see an extension of that watch or a new watch issued later tonight. We are essentially facing the potential for two separate rounds of severe weather. The initial round will be in the form of scattered strong to severe storms well in advance of the cold front. These 'discrete' thunderstorm cells will have a somewhat better chance of becoming tornadic, although any tornadoes are still expected to be isolated.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCSjd4t8FFqbHfXEr5PsfM9MqKVReP0cWdLM5O3dWqT9gcYnYCWugzuoBk5j8z9QKMYdiWYVg7GNjm_pQPUCNflvuYY_plI7J5Wi0O2BLrgRLilIYgnXWilgBoOYWwogqHpmG6SBa-I70/s1600/Web2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCSjd4t8FFqbHfXEr5PsfM9MqKVReP0cWdLM5O3dWqT9gcYnYCWugzuoBk5j8z9QKMYdiWYVg7GNjm_pQPUCNflvuYY_plI7J5Wi0O2BLrgRLilIYgnXWilgBoOYWwogqHpmG6SBa-I70/s400/Web2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The second, primary threat of severe weather will accompany a squall line. Typically squall lines produce more in the way of straight-line wind damage, but isolated tornadoes will remain possible. It is the squall line that will impact most of the area late tonight. Radar trends suggest that the models may be a little too slow in moving the squall line eastward, but look for the primary threat window to be roughly 8 p.m. - midnight for metro Baton Rouge.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwvR4EcBk4wGBVwH9mARhmVH5Rc9t_AJ5kWjKOtyljbrPwd72g8o17ZlLqrpBhp5kmqSW5N-hNHQrRIrG6TR-a02avd6w7ClvYytPgEHtgukSP3UMlPdh6DHLdFY7_2NLVSiGznAkHT_c/s1600/Web3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwvR4EcBk4wGBVwH9mARhmVH5Rc9t_AJ5kWjKOtyljbrPwd72g8o17ZlLqrpBhp5kmqSW5N-hNHQrRIrG6TR-a02avd6w7ClvYytPgEHtgukSP3UMlPdh6DHLdFY7_2NLVSiGznAkHT_c/s400/Web3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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A Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect for all of our viewing area through 10 a.m. on Wednesday. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEb9k5MHiKTecZJmcRvtO3guUJawQyIPSc3q7-G6RLiG_N2ZCkOBXse9tXsl2TRENp-9wBYcTxWIFBw7r2KIkhRQChen84_MaEGCtcLCnV64OIIWKBjayli1qwlK2bFAIjWTt73TrmBJY/s1600/Web4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEb9k5MHiKTecZJmcRvtO3guUJawQyIPSc3q7-G6RLiG_N2ZCkOBXse9tXsl2TRENp-9wBYcTxWIFBw7r2KIkhRQChen84_MaEGCtcLCnV64OIIWKBjayli1qwlK2bFAIjWTt73TrmBJY/s400/Web4.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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We don't expect rains as bad as what we experienced in late October, but widespread totals of 2" to 4" can be expected, with locally higher amounts possible.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBhxZtvapySe9ztKnHzY0Ez51e4Zozsdo1dU2zf7x8hlUb5SD1rQzHykBf6-a6hIcgy3QMIVyw1n6LtkP7LvT5sEF35Ubf0Bn-9uWtAefWwPa7qR-0waqYhQUpz1REuui1FzLKz3dTsXI/s1600/Web5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBhxZtvapySe9ztKnHzY0Ez51e4Zozsdo1dU2zf7x8hlUb5SD1rQzHykBf6-a6hIcgy3QMIVyw1n6LtkP7LvT5sEF35Ubf0Bn-9uWtAefWwPa7qR-0waqYhQUpz1REuui1FzLKz3dTsXI/s400/Web5.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Stay with the First Alert Storm Team throughout the remainder of today and tonight as we track the approaching storms. We'll have coverage on air, online and in our free weather app. Also, make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings before going to bed tonight. We highly recommend a NOAA Weather Radio which will sound an alarm if a warning is issued for your area.</div>
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<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-22498341419907985082015-10-29T19:27:00.000-07:002015-10-29T19:27:46.699-07:00Halloween Gloom Compliments of Mother NatureThe threat of rain and storms has forced most communities around the area to move Trick-or-Treating to Friday night (<a href="https://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_1027452055"></span>click here<span id="goog_1027452056"></span></a> for updated times). While there may not be any real legal punch behind the move, the not-no-subtle suggestion from area leaders is the right move to make.<br />
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It's simple -- Friday likely stays dry while Mother Nature may outdo ghosts and goblins with the fright factor on Halloween.<br />
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Heading into Saturday, the threatening weather has also prompted the 10/31 Consortium to move their planned parade from a 2 p.m. start to 9:30 a.m. instead. That should be good enough to avoid the worst of the weather, but showers will be possible, even during the morning hours.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOyy9xZ4zb-V36YsiN4voReM_-8BGQGs0XXeOKYbRu3PbYPhq4ijVo7CuMQmZw6DbdI687EdYDZEZSJRjEMjB4boVGlhH6EHVRh_GO0ZnNHMQzpCG2qivQxAYN-pt4NVpveKpxzbiuvp0/s1600/Parade.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOyy9xZ4zb-V36YsiN4voReM_-8BGQGs0XXeOKYbRu3PbYPhq4ijVo7CuMQmZw6DbdI687EdYDZEZSJRjEMjB4boVGlhH6EHVRh_GO0ZnNHMQzpCG2qivQxAYN-pt4NVpveKpxzbiuvp0/s400/Parade.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Outside of impacts to Trick-or-Treating and other Halloween events, the big story for the weekend will center around rain amounts and the potential for additional flooding. Most of our computer guidance paints anywhere from 1" to 4" of rain across the area through the weekend. However, our in-house RPM model has had some runs today with bands of even higher amounts. The latest available run as of Thursday evening delivers widespread 3" to 5" totals, with locally higher amounts.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLywyS_mkW_vQ_g21LN0pAl0hKk6PJyUgqJkv6UL8yg-kvfdpohE4StuvdVGkjVXRsO9faMIcYJw8FK4vhKVjZnCYIsnTt_aG7PXcasZZzpC-r0bCV_T71YgntL70tRuCqVhB3mq6lrfg/s1600/RPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLywyS_mkW_vQ_g21LN0pAl0hKk6PJyUgqJkv6UL8yg-kvfdpohE4StuvdVGkjVXRsO9faMIcYJw8FK4vhKVjZnCYIsnTt_aG7PXcasZZzpC-r0bCV_T71YgntL70tRuCqVhB3mq6lrfg/s400/RPM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Most area rivers have already crested or are near crest tonight, but we'll need to keep an eye on the potential for additional rises over the weekend, depending on exactly how much rain we receive.<br />
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At this point, we don't expect widespread severe weather, but a few isolated strong storms will be possible, particularly Saturday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a 'marginal' risk for severe weather.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3bK3VQezczNU_FTGyMUN8nDMoYYYsh7HbQWc7seOz64VHSxYIXBMpye1onzzvBupjhn_mEoeZjEriKswDPypu4zh4Zx2__MEQ7SyfhKIVV2KwSRs-0TTDTNP-bcpdr84PPrQ3HVXNBPg/s1600/Severe+Threat.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3bK3VQezczNU_FTGyMUN8nDMoYYYsh7HbQWc7seOz64VHSxYIXBMpye1onzzvBupjhn_mEoeZjEriKswDPypu4zh4Zx2__MEQ7SyfhKIVV2KwSRs-0TTDTNP-bcpdr84PPrQ3HVXNBPg/s400/Severe+Threat.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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We'll be here through the weekend to keep you updated on the expected rains and any strong storms that may develop. You can also track the rains on your smartphone or tablet using our free weather app:<br />
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Apple download: <a href="http://shout.lt/42Rq" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px;" target="_blank">http://shout.lt/42Rq</a><br />
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Android download: <a href="http://shout.lt/42Q8" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px;" target="_blank">http://shout.lt/42Q8</a>Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-42372396564565888712015-10-27T08:21:00.001-07:002015-10-27T08:36:59.292-07:00Weekend Soaking in Perspective...and Another Round Ahead?By Steve Caparotta<br />
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Were you among the plethora of south Louisiana residents begging for some rainfall through the first few weeks of October? I was certainly in that crowd, growing tired of running my sprinkler to keep my lawn and garden from wilting in the dry and warm weather. But as they say, be careful what you wish for.<br />
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In a remarkable turn of events, we went from 'extreme drought' in some locations to dealing with flooding in the course of just a couple of days. In fact, the most recent Drought Monitor that was released last Thursday, October 20th, had more than 50% of Louisiana classified as being in an 'extreme drought', with over 13% of North Louisiana under the worst classification of 'exceptional drought'. It's fair to say the map below will see significant changes when a new update is released this Thursday.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrQigSzT1IIimppQFB_s2VQnstr2mvNZBsRPCsv4C67x3oQ93nVkz1fLdc71kcpVpGHqEsj8-PyP2zOdHehxKhhnUapV0Q6oZ6iy2K12EpeAKTz-JaCjhuhObNZDbZmGgGkk2ntZU41MM/s1600/Drought+Monitor.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrQigSzT1IIimppQFB_s2VQnstr2mvNZBsRPCsv4C67x3oQ93nVkz1fLdc71kcpVpGHqEsj8-PyP2zOdHehxKhhnUapV0Q6oZ6iy2K12EpeAKTz-JaCjhuhObNZDbZmGgGkk2ntZU41MM/s400/Drought+Monitor.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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As it turns out, a stretch of 24 days without measurable rain in Baton Rouge and much of the surrounding area and an overall dry stretch since the beginning of September turned out to be a blessing this past weekend. While we certainly dealt with some localized flooding in urban areas and continue to monitor rising rivers, it could have been much worse had there been any rain of consequence in the prior days and weeks.<br />
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How big of a rain event did we see this past weekend? For most of the area, it was the most significant multi-day rain since Tropical Storm Allison produced flooding in 2001. Sunday's rainfall ranks as the 5th largest single-day total in Baton Rouge in records that date back to 1892!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBTGNNA9J6QmkKiXQRphjLHJk1FUwhUYk333PN0IyWB5-OqBrZfP_RELvXHGACwWP5KTJ7-ZEtSSufqMAuWc96GlDhmM2igg4igIXDo43IdVdmPAPsU0BQ9Kg5mmvZVGxlIgyKJ9uloDM/s1600/BTR+Highest+1+Day+Rains.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBTGNNA9J6QmkKiXQRphjLHJk1FUwhUYk333PN0IyWB5-OqBrZfP_RELvXHGACwWP5KTJ7-ZEtSSufqMAuWc96GlDhmM2igg4igIXDo43IdVdmPAPsU0BQ9Kg5mmvZVGxlIgyKJ9uloDM/s400/BTR+Highest+1+Day+Rains.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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And the 2-day rain total for Saturday and Sunday in Baton Rouge ranks as the 6th largest 2-day event since 1892.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtAqikkAGIBoGZ7kpdDVr453O19lmyAH4Y8VpMFBiuZZn8ZOw3g-NUHfN5GmF5Ht-nbZA9nuReNBf6TS8_vbClgZ3ILJyQqb8wiRGIaZ-EriXsv-P2FjECMMMzsq6wieAIQdINA3ftB6M/s1600/BTR+Highest+2+Day+Rains.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtAqikkAGIBoGZ7kpdDVr453O19lmyAH4Y8VpMFBiuZZn8ZOw3g-NUHfN5GmF5Ht-nbZA9nuReNBf6TS8_vbClgZ3ILJyQqb8wiRGIaZ-EriXsv-P2FjECMMMzsq6wieAIQdINA3ftB6M/s400/BTR+Highest+2+Day+Rains.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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It's also remarkable to consider that through October 23rd, Baton Rouge Metro had only recorded a trace of rainfall. Three days later, 2015 stood as the third wettest October on record!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBDUhP7Iy0RXcdGC3WV0K-1dGOYHHhA33rxOKAM09p0hD_0cHNrK_sB1NBakxYSKyxToTgnlza3iO8EiSU930ox8OYroA3c5d8300aTqDS9WYFG9UQ8NnthkUyr95A7mpFaZS1brLnjeg/s1600/BTR+Wettest+Octobers.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBDUhP7Iy0RXcdGC3WV0K-1dGOYHHhA33rxOKAM09p0hD_0cHNrK_sB1NBakxYSKyxToTgnlza3iO8EiSU930ox8OYroA3c5d8300aTqDS9WYFG9UQ8NnthkUyr95A7mpFaZS1brLnjeg/s400/BTR+Wettest+Octobers.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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One other way to measure a rain event is by using a tool that climatologists call 'recurrence intervals'. Without getting into the dirty (and boring to many) details, recurrence intervals are a statistical measure of how frequently a given location can expect certain rain amounts over a given duration. Using a NOAA tool available online, we find that the 2-day rain total of just under 11 inches in Baton Rouge is a roughly 1-in-25-year event. In other words, people in Baton Rouge can expect to see rains like this past weekend roughly once every 25 years when averaged over a LONG period of time. Another way of looking at it is that there's a 4% chance in any given year of seeing a 2-day rain like this past weekend.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig1uwPeSA4KU8GJQV1pd9s9vd0NSXnteIYk8q1bhvMvqYghQPmeAQT8Y75Nx-0K-zkpNfMSzTEz-JC7muFV4mBqV7TEPqdnGWjarmCZdOLOzPYM9nzcOd3rtRAc-XIv2s08XODM9zH_4E/s1600/BTR+Recurrence+Interval.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig1uwPeSA4KU8GJQV1pd9s9vd0NSXnteIYk8q1bhvMvqYghQPmeAQT8Y75Nx-0K-zkpNfMSzTEz-JC7muFV4mBqV7TEPqdnGWjarmCZdOLOzPYM9nzcOd3rtRAc-XIv2s08XODM9zH_4E/s400/BTR+Recurrence+Interval.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Recurrence intervals for rainfall in Baton Rouge. Source: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=la</td></tr>
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While most of our neighborhoods are beginning to dry out, rivers are still rising and we'll see additional problems through the week for those who live along or near rivers. And the bad news? It looks like we've got more rain on the way for the weekend.<br />
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The rains will be somewhat of a double-whammy, not only arriving over the weekend, but potentially turning into a real issue for Trick-or-Treaters and Halloween parties. There's still some uncertainty in the timing of the rains over the weekend, but it looks like the wet weather will begin to arrive by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.<br />
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The map below shows that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is already forecasting an additional 2" to 4" of rain for much of our area over the weekend.<br />
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One more thing to note that we've already mentioned at times in our weathercasts. One of the strongest El Niño events on record is ongoing in the Pacific. History tells us that during El Niño events, fall and winter tend to see above-normal rainfall along the Gulf Coast. With that in mind, it's quite possible that these rain events will only become more frequent in the coming months. The currently 3-month outlook for Nov-Jan from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is in line with that thinking, calling for above-normal chances for above-normal precipitation in our region.</div>
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Stay dry, everyone, and count on the WAFB First Alert Storm Team on air, online and on your mobile device for the latest on any storm systems headed our way.</div>
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<br />Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-29396599195840904462015-07-03T15:44:00.001-07:002015-07-03T15:44:48.302-07:00Scattered Storms Return for the Holiday Weekend<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-weight: normal;">July 3rd WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- back to scattered afternoon t-storms for the independence Day weekend</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- drier and a little warmer for next week</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Happy 4th to you and yours!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">We doubt that anyone is complaining about our back-to-back dry days, thanks to high pressure at the mid and upper levels putting the clamps on afternoon thundershower development.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Unfortunately, the “lid” comes off the atmosphere over the weekend and we return to scattered afternoon showers and t-storms for both Saturday and Sunday. In fact, we’re leaning towards “rain likely” for Saturday (rain chances at 50% to 60% for Saturday afternoon), and there is a potential for a few strong to severe storms in the WAFB area over the two-day span.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2M4ZbTaWfCTuNV1x3l0S9Tz7jlqzbuaRPeHyFGbuhszVpQXbQUQfqfRAM2_AEXQMVp5K6u_XlCdrqNs2DAOfWmSnxwqrzQzmvwHXXLSxhDgsWkrs5qUr0pfO-9sxI2dpBkb0uqlr3e5o/s1600/Web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2M4ZbTaWfCTuNV1x3l0S9Tz7jlqzbuaRPeHyFGbuhszVpQXbQUQfqfRAM2_AEXQMVp5K6u_XlCdrqNs2DAOfWmSnxwqrzQzmvwHXXLSxhDgsWkrs5qUr0pfO-9sxI2dpBkb0uqlr3e5o/s400/Web.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">The upper-level high (a mid/upper-air ridge, the “lid” on the pot) that put the brakes on afternoon rains yesterday and today will give ground over the weekend. That will let our moist and unstable Gulf air do its thing: build mid-day and afternoon showers and storms without an inhibitor to slow their vertical growth. Neither day will result in all-day rains for your backyard, but we expect a pretty active radar depiction for both afternoons as individual t-storms build, move and subside through the day. If you’ve got outdoor plans on either day, make sure that you have an indoor or under-cover option ready to go.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">After muggy morning starts in the low to mid 70°s for both Saturday and Sunday around metro Baton Rouge, look for temperatures to climb into the upper 80°s to around 90° before the clouds and rains knock the temperatures back through the afternoon.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">As for the Saturday evening “Fireworks on the Levee,” we expect the rains to have dissipated by showtime, but we could still have isolated rains in the area as late as 7:00 or even 8:00pm. We’re thinking that temperatures for the 9:00pm showtime will be in the upper 70°s to low 80°s on the levee.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Into next week, the ridge returns, taking rain chances back down into the ”isolated” category for just about every day next week -- yep, too bad the ridge had to retreat during the weekend. With the drier pattern in the forecast for next week, plan for muggy morning sunrises in the low to mid 70°s for most WAFB communities, with highs in the low 90°s just about every day.</span></span>Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-26509520418401821832015-07-02T15:23:00.000-07:002015-07-02T15:23:02.907-07:00Mainly Dry Again for Friday<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">July 2nd WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- hot, breezy and mostly dry for Friday</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- scattered showers & t-storms expected for both weekend days</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Okay, our “mainly dry” forecast for today took a big hit in a number of neighborhoods before 7:00am thanks to a band of mainly-light showers draped over the viewing area. Those showers fizzled out by or before mid-morning and the gray cloud deck had largely thinned before lunchtime. With the thinning clouds, mid-day and afternoon sunshine took temperatures into the 90°s for the afternoon.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Even as late as 3:00pm this afternoon, Doppler was “all clear” across the WAFB viewing area. A rogue, spotty shower or two might pop-up during the late afternoon or early evening, but we expect that just about everyone stays dry into the evening and overnight too.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Our Friday forecast calls for another mainly-dry day like today … with the big exception being no morning showers like some of us experienced this morning. After a muggy Friday morning start in the low to mid 70°s for many WAFB communities, we’ll climb once again into the low 90°s for Friday afternoon, with spotty showers, at best. Add in the afternoon humidity and that low 90° reading will ‘feel like’ 100° or more at the peak of the afternoon heat. Then it’s a warm and dry Friday evening and mostly fair skies into the night.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Out mostly-dry Thursday and Friday are courtesy of a western U.S. upper-air ridge building just a bit farther east. That ridge has pushed drier and slightly warmer air into the middle levels over the Bayou State -- and that serves as a rain-cloud inhibitor.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Unfortunately, the dry spell doesn’t hold through the weekend. The ridge softens and retreats westward allowing our locally-unstable air a better chance to build vertically during the afternoons: bigger afternoon cumulus clouds usually means more rain-clouds and better rain coverage. We’re still not too concerned about any kind of severe weather threat for either Saturday or Sunday, but we’ll go with rain chances at 40% to 50% or so for both days. Of course, with those elevated rain chances, we can’t rule out one or two strong storms on either afternoon.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">So be ready to dodge the rains during both afternoons. We don’t anticipate all-day rains in either case and not everyone gets wet each day … but have a plan to get out of the weather should storms roll through your neighborhood. The good news is that we expect Saturday’s mainly-afternoon rains to be out of the way for Saturday evening’s fireworks and festivities.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Headed into next week, upper-level ridging builds back over the area, knocking rain chances back to around 20% to 30% for just about every afternoon. (Too bad that isn’t the cast for the weekend, eh?)</span></span>Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-22102734315570830122015-06-30T15:44:00.000-07:002015-06-30T15:44:37.900-07:00Scattered T-Storms Again on Wednesday<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>June 30th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</i></span></span></h3>
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">- scattered afternoon showers & t-storms return for Wednesday</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">- isolated rains for Thursday & Friday</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">- back to a summer routine for the July 4th weekend</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Looking for WAFB’s Weather App? Find it here:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">- Apple users click here:<span class="x_apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://shout.lt/42Rq" target="_blank">http://shout.lt/42Rq</a><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">- Android users click here:<span class="x_apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://shout.lt/42Q8" target="_blank">http://shout.lt/42Q8</a><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">.. or text WEATHERAPP to 99009 …</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And for yet another day, some fairly strong t-storms rocked parts of the viewing area. Unlike last night’s late-night storms and the action last Tuesday and Wednesday, these storms were not out of the north and northeast. However, they were still quite energetic and lightning-laden, fueled by our very most and unstable Gulf air. What’s more, they got an additional boost from a pair of features working together: a sea-breeze-like wave heading inland and what appears to be a broad-but-weak non-tropical disturbance moving to the west-northwest over the western Gulf.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Bottom line: a very active middle of the afternoon for metro Baton Rouge and western Livingston Parish, sections of the Felicianas and points west including parts of Pointe Coupee, Avoyelles and St. Landry parishes. Once again, the most noteworthy aspect of these storms was the lightning - - which is credited with power outages and even one or more fires. But we can’t ignore the reports of small hail from WAFB viewers as well as locally-heavy downpours that produced more rounds of street flooding.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The action will wind down into the evening and most of us will stay dry through the overnight and early morning hours on Wednesday. We could see a few showers down near the coast for Wednesday’s sunrise, but the morning commute for metro BR should be a dry one for just about everyone. Plan for a muggy, partly-to-mostly cloudy start to Wednesday with morning temperatures in the mid 70°s.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For Wednesday afternoon, here they come again: 50% rain chance with highs getting up to around 90° before the rains arrive. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The weather gets much quieter for Thursday and Friday, with rain chances for both days currently posted at 20% or less. Both days start off in the mid 70°s for the Red Stick and afternoon highs reach the low 90°s for most, with a few neighborhoods potentially sneaking into the mid 90°s.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And into the Fourth of July weekend, we return to something fairly typical for this time of year: morning starts in the low to mid 70°s for the metro area, afternoon highs in the low 90°s, and scattered mainly-afternoon t-showers for both days.</span></span></div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-61118151830986588192015-06-26T14:46:00.001-07:002015-06-26T14:46:30.998-07:00More Rain This Weekend<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;"><i>June 26th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</i></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">- weekend cool front still on the forecast board</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Today was yet another afternoon with scattered showers and storms … but the action was less substantial than what we saw on Thursday and nothing at all like the big boomers and excessive rains of Tuesday and Wednesday. Today was something more “normal” for a summer day in the viewing area.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">There is a change coming this weekend in the form of a summer cool front. We can’t call summer fronts “rare” but they certainly aren’t very common. During the winter and spring, we can expect to see five or six frontal passages -- sometimes even more -- each month, on average. By comparison, during the summer season, that number drops to something closer to an average of one or two passages per month. And often, our summer fronts don’t push all the way through the area: they stall near or along the coast and sit there until they fizzle-out.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">That is precisely what we are expecting this weekend: a cool front will slide south out of the U.S. Plains and reach the WAFB area by Saturday afternoon and evening. Then it simply stalls along or near the coast for the remainder of the weekend.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">If that front would continue southward and move out over the Gulf, we would get a nice change in our weather. A completed frontal passage would deliver slightly cooler temperatures and, even more welcomed, a big drop in our local humidity. (90° afternoons don’t feel so bad if the air is less humid). Unfortunately, our guidance is suggesting that the weekend front will stall somewhere along or near the coast late Saturday and then linger there into Monday before dissipating.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Fronts usually mean rain in the local forecast no matter what time of year. So our weekend cool front will be a focus for rains on Saturday afternoon and evening -- by adding extra lift to our typical hot, humid and unstable sub-tropical Gulf air. Then, with the front lingering near the coast into Sunday, we’ll keep “rain likely” in the overnight and morning forecast for our viewing area.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">In the spring, a frontal set-up like this could mean some nasty weather and another round of potentially large rain totals. Fortunately, summer fronts along the Gulf Coast tend to be less energetic than their winter and spring counterparts. That said, we’ll still get showers and storms with this frontal boundary and we can’t rule out a few strong to severe storms as it settles over the area. But with the front over the area at night rather than during the heat of the day, the threat for severe storms is reduced somewhat.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">The rains will continue into Sunday morning, but rains on Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours will take a big bite out of the local atmosphere’s storm energy, with rains winding down as we head towards Sunday mid-day and afternoon. We’re not ready to say “rain free” for Sunday afternoon, but it’s looking like isolated showers with the majority of WAFB neighborhoods staying dry into Sunday afternoon and early evening. In addition, clouds and morning rains on Sunday will slow the daytime warm-up, with just about all of us topping out in the 80°s for Sunday afternoon.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So how “cool” will it get? Most viewers in the coastal parishes will get little or no relief from the humidity, which means not much change in terms of morning lows on Sunday and Monday. For the northern half of the viewing area, if the front can make its way as far south as the coastal zone, at least some communities north of the I-10/12 corridor could slip into the upper 60°s on one or both mornings. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">We’ll go with morning minimums on both days close to 70° for metro Baton Rouge: not much of a change but at least a couple of degrees cooler -- and a little less humid -- than the past several days.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">As for next week, our current extended outlook calls for a return to our traditional summer routine at least through mid-week: morning lows in the low to mid 70°s, most afternoons climbing to 90° or more, and scattered mainly-afternoon showers and storms just about every day.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">How about the tropics? Dead quiet. While there are a few tropical waves running in the easterly tropical flow (and that is normal), none of them show any potential for development.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Eyes to the skies on Saturday afternoon … but here’s hoping that you get to enjoy the weekend!</span></span></div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-1693598420713170872015-06-17T15:33:00.000-07:002015-06-17T15:33:06.726-07:00Hot & Humid, Isolated Showers<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><i>June 17th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</i></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- ‘Bill’ continues chugging northward</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- summer heat, humidity and afternoon showers locally</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Tropical Depression Bill continues moving steadily to the north and is still expected to begin a turn to the northeast over the next 24 hours. Bill has been quite the rainmaker for parts of Texas -- sadly, in some places that really didn’t need more rain. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">For most of Louisiana, however, Bill failed to leave much of a calling card. While there have been some pockets of 1” to 2” rains over the western parishes, and even T-Storm Warnings in the northwestern part of the state, most of the Bayou State saw little in the way of noteworthy weather. Thank you for that favor, Bill!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">We should note that while Bill’s landfall was roughly 170 miles southwest of Cameron Parish, the Lake Charles NWS office has reported multiple locations in that parish with sustained winds of 40 mph or more -- tropical-storm strength. And the NHC’s wind field projection during Bill’s peak strength suggested that tropical-storm winds could indeed reach into the westernmost portions of Cameron Parish. So technically, does this confirm a tropical-storm impact by Bill on the Bayou State? It will be interesting down the road to see how the NOAA tropical experts evaluate it.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Meanwhile, weatherwise for us, it’s shaping up for a steady dose of typical summer weather for the central Gulf Coast right into the weekend. The line-up reads like this: morning lows in the low to mid 70°s, afternoon highs in the low 90°s, and a steady influx of humid Gulf air that keeps dew points in the 70°s. That will mean afternoon Heat Index readings topping out in the upper 90°s for many WAFB neighborhoods, with occasional readings at 100° or more. </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Be extra careful in the heat, especially if you are spending time under direct sunshine. And please remember the pets too!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Rains chances will run in the 20% to 30% range for Thursday and Friday and probably right through the weekend. As we’ve mentioned over the past few days, the upper-air ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. that steered Bill away from us also kept rain chances in our area on the lower end (isolated at best) over the past couple of days. That ridge is likely to shrink a bit and shift a little eastward over the next couple of days, allowing for ever-so-slightly higher chances for afternoon showers on Friday and Saturday. But even then, we’re talking 30%, which is still at or below normal for mid to late June.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">As we head into Sunday and next week, models are indicating the development of upper-air ridging over the Desert Southwest, putting us under the influence of dry, northwesterly flow at the mid- and upper-levels. That should keep rain chances in the 20% to 30% range for Sunday and Monday, and possibly right through the middle of the upcoming work week.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">So it’s summer heat-and-humidity for the end of the work week and the weekend, with the occasional passing shower that might be welcomed as a nice mid-afternoon heat-breaker.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">And in the tropics, the NHC notes four tropical waves over the Atlantic Basin, with a fifth about to move off the western coast of Africa, but none show any significant signs for potential development, at least not in the next three to five days.</span></span>Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-63758453324699623652015-06-16T16:23:00.000-07:002015-06-16T16:23:02.756-07:00Bill Moving Inland...Hot, Humid Locally<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;"><i>June 16th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</i></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">- </span><span style="color: black;">T.S. Bill moving inland over Texas</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">- muggy mornings followed by hot-and-humid afternoons will be the rule locally</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">T.S. Bill made landfall along Matagorda Island along the central Texas Gulf Coast just prior to the lunch hour today. Peak sustained winds at landfall were estimated at a respectable 60 mph with higher gusts, making Bill a formidable tropical storm as he headed inland.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After making landfall, Bill stalled and meandered along the coast for several hours. By 3:00pm, however, it looked as though Bill had begun slowly moving again to the North to NNW, and the 4:00pm NHC Advisory indicated that Bill had begun weakening with sustained winds at 50 mph.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The tropical forecast keeps Bill well to our west through mid week. ‘His’ impacts in Louisiana will be periodic rains for the western parishes, but even there most rain totals through week’s end will come in at around an inch or less. And for us in WAFB-land? Very little in the way of a Bill weather signature other than a breezy couple of days.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For Texas and Oklahoma, however, it’s another round of very soggy weather. The forecast from the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) indicates a swath of 4” to 8” rains extending from the coast into the middle of the Red River Valley (where they just endured record-setting rains). And that’s where Bill will likely have ‘his’ biggest effect: prolonging the high water along the Red River is it passed through northwestern and into central Louisiana.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What Bill does give WAFB viewers is a quick refresher course that tropical systems can bubble-up fairly quickly over the Gulf. Texas coastal residents had only 36 to 48 hours to prep for this system: would you have been ready for a couple of days without power had Bill taken a turn to the northeast and beat a hasty path in our direction? Bill serves as a reminder to make sure that you, your family and your business have “tropical game plans” in place and that you are ready to go.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Meanwhile, we’ll get an extended run of relatively dry weather through the week and weekend. A high-pressure ridge centered over the southeast U.S. appears ready to remains in place into next week. That same ridge is the key steering agent accounting for Bill’s forecast path, with the western margin of that ridge extending across the Bayou State and into East Texas.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While the ridge won’t fully deter afternoon showers from popping up in our viewing area, it will be a persistent inhibitor to raincloud formation through the coming weekend. We’re posting regional rain chances in the 20% to 30% range for most WAFB communities right into next week. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Less cloud cover means more sunshine and that adds to the usual daytime heating. In the meantime, our low-level flow will continue to come off the Gulf, keeping the air humid. With dew points in the 70°s, we can expect morning minimums to stay in the low to mid 70°s right through the next seven days for the Red Stick. And that moist air will combine with daytime highs in the low to mid 90°s to push peak daily Heat Index readings up to near or even above 100°!</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So, enjoy the drier weather spell … but be extra careful in the summer heat!</span></span></div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-19395142010918415162015-06-15T15:45:00.000-07:002015-06-15T15:45:39.927-07:00Tropical Rains for Texas...Minimal Impacts Locally<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="color: black;">June </span><span style="color: #1f497d;">15</span></i><span style="color: black;"><i>th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</i><br />- much attention on the western Gulf and Invest 91L</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">- much attention on the western Gulf and Invest 91L</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">- declining rain chances locally over the next few days</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes, a good deal of attention this weekend and today was focused -- and remains focused -- on the tropical disturbance in the western Gulf - Invest 91L. Assessment of Hurricane Hunter data earlier in the day by the national Hurricane Center (NHC) pros indicated that the disturbance has yet to achieve the complete structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone (either a tropical depression or a tropical storm) - - however, there is little doubt that the system is awfully close as of this afternoon. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Why not a tropical storm as yet? The NHC stated that a clearly-defined low-pressure center has yet to sufficiently consolidate to earn cyclone classification, although there is ample evidence of tropical-storm force winds in the region. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the disturbance this evening, and we suspect that it will collect the evidence needed for upgrade to Tropical Storm Bill. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Virtually every major tropical forecasting model takes this system into the Texas Coast and then northward into the Southern Plains -- bad news for the already-flooded Red River region but good news for the Bayou State. Parts of Louisiana could receive some east-side wrap-around rainbands from the tropical system over the several days but it appears as though the main storm energy misses us.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Note that there are Coast Flood Advisories - - and Warnings - - either already in effect or anticipated for Louisiana, but most of this is a result of the steady southeasterly winds that have been impacting the region and are expected to continue. However, winds along the central and western Louisiana coast are likely to show additional increases due to the larger-scale flow around the tropical system as it continues along a northwesterly track into Texas.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For most of us, however, we can expect a turn to a slightly drier regime over the next couple of days or so. High pressure ridging, centered over the southeastern U.S. will serve as a modest inhibitor for our afternoon thundershowers -- not fully shutting off the afternoon rains but keeping them in the 20% to 30% range for our viewing area for the next three days.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The “muggies” will stay with us all week long. While we may see a little less in the form of rain coverage, moist Gulf air will remain in place all week long. Look for afternoon highs in the 90°s each day, with morning starts in the low to mid 70°s for most WAFB neighborhoods - - and upper 70°s at sunrise for the more southern parishes.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So here we are, only two weeks into the Hurricane Season and we could have our second ‘named’ storm? What happened to the forecast for below-average storm numbers? It’s still on the table, but we admit that the average date of the second ‘named’ storm in the Atlantic is August 1st!</span></span></div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-20428596074501853792015-06-12T14:39:00.000-07:002015-06-12T14:39:19.307-07:00Staying Soggy This Weekend<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;"><i>June 11th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:</i></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">- rain likely through the weekend</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">As expected, the showers and storms were rather numerous for our area today. It took a little time for the action to really get going and fair to partly-cloudy morning skies for many WAFB neighborhoods allowed the sun to drive temperatures up to near 90° by or even before lunchtime. However, Doppler radar became quite active into the afternoon and the rains knocked temperatures down into the 70°s and 80°s for many communities by mid-afternoon. </span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Fortunately, there were no ‘severe’ storms in our area today but a few storms did become rather strong … and a few neighborhoods did receive a pretty good soaking.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">In the meantime, satellite imagery continues to show a consistent counter-clockwise spin over the northern Gulf, located just off the Louisiana coast. This mid/upper-air low/trough was the key factor in today’s wet pattern and it will remain a factor for Saturday and probably Sunday too. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">The circulation around the low/trough will strengthen our typical summertime inbound flow of Gulf moisture over the next two days. Indeed, water vapor imagery shows a very moist plume of air on the eastern flank of the westward-traveling trough. In addition, somewhat cooler air aloft associated with the trough creates a steepened vertical temperature gradient (cool aloft and warm near the surface), and an increased temperature difference means enhanced instability (greater lift). All of these ingredients will likely yield elevated rain chances through the weekend.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Just like today, we aren’t expecting all-day rains for Saturday and Sunday. However, everyone should be prepared for the potential for multiple rounds of passing showers and storms on both days.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Given the consistent flow off the Gulf, you already know that the days will remain humid, with dew points staying in the 70°s through next week. And remember, the morning low can’t drop below the dew point temperature -- so expect muggy morning starts in the low to mid 70°s through the weekend and through most or all of the coming work week.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">The rains on Saturday and Sunday should mean that highs for most WAFB communities should top-out in the mid to upper 80°s for both days, although a few areas may sneak up into the 90°s.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">As we head into next week, the influence of the west-bound trough should slowly wane. At the same time, high-pressure -- the Bermuda High -- will expand into the area from the east. We’re still expecting scattered, mainly-afternoon rains for Monday (50% chance), but by Tuesday and Wednesday, the Bermuda High should begin to knock back our local rain chances even with our muggy, Gulf air mass. For the time being, we’ll call for rain chances at around 40% for Tuesday and then around 20% to 30% for Wednesday and Thursday. However, less rain (and less cloud cover) will come with a return to the 90°s for most WAFB neighborhoods.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So enjoy your weekend .. and good luck dodging those rains this weekend!</span></span></div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705374971666261710.post-18134347490669722142015-06-11T14:43:00.000-07:002015-06-11T14:43:25.665-07:00More Wet Weather into the Weekend<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">June 11th WAFB First Alert Quickcast:<br />- rain chances running higher for Friday and the weekend</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Our area coverage of showers and t-storms was more widespread today compared to Wednesday</span><span style="color: black;"> … and we’re expecting that coverage to increase even more for Friday and the weekend.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">During yesterday evening’s weathercasts, we noted a modest counter-clockwise spin in the clouds just to our east -- the satellite signature of an upper-level low. Satellite depictions today have made the feature even more apparent, with a somewhat elongated spin located over the southern parishes this afternoon.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">This upper-air trough of low pressure is certainly not tropical and does not threaten to develop into a tropical system either. However, you may have noticed the extra activity bubbling up on its eastern flank as it works with the Gulf moisture by providing added lift. As this trough slides slowly westward over the next couple of days, it will bring those showers and storms into our viewing area. End result: rain likely for Friday, Saturday and probably Sunday too.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">By the early to middle part of next week, the trough should have moved far enough west to lessen its impact locally. At the same time, high pressure ridging from the western Atlantic into the eastern and central Gulf should take a bite out of the afternoon showers and storms. If this forecasts plays out, that should mean a drier forecast for the WAFB area as early as Tuesday and certainly by Wednesday.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Regardless, our humid Gulf air mass will remain in place throughout. The difference between the next few days and the middle of next week will be the shift in “controlling” mechanisms: from the upper trough to the high-pressure ridge. However, the humid air likely keeps morning lows in the 70°s through the next 7 to 10 days for metro Baton Rouge. Over the next few days, those mornings are likely to also start out with at least isolated morning showers (especially along the coast), with the coverage increasing through the morning and into the afternoon.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">We’ve got rain chances running in the 60% to 70% range for Friday and Saturday, and possibly Sunday too. For Monday, we’re going with rain chances at about 50%, then backing it down to 40% for Tuesday. At this point, Wednesday is looking considerably drier, with rain chances running around 20% to 30% for the afternoon.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">High temperatures through the wetter days will likely top-out in the mid-to-upper 80°s thanks to the clouds and rain. But the 90°s will return by or before the middle of next week as the daily rain chances decline.</span><span style="color: black;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We don’t expect any widespread severe weather over the next 7 days, and regional rainfall totals are likely to average around 1” to 3” or so for most locations (with the larger totals more likely closer to the coast). However, just as we’ve seen over the past few days, localized downpours can produce 1” to 3” of rain in one spot in under an hour, and these kinds of isolated bull’s eyes are likely to continue through the weekend.</span></span></div>
Steve Caparottahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17321515323380643325noreply@blogger.com0