Scattered Afternoon T-Storms

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As of 3:00 PM, we haven’t seen the coverage of rains that we had anticipated yesterday (we were calling for 30% to 40% coverage for this afternoon), but we expect showers and storms to continue to pop-up through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening.

Storms at this point are a bit more numerous to the east and south of Baton Rouge, fueled in part by the mid/upper-level low spinning well to our east.  In fact, the weather is very active over southern Mississippi due to its closer proximity to that upper low.

As we’ve mentioned the past couple of days, that upper low is still easing its way to the west, and as it does our rain chances will increase.  At the same time, the low has become a little less “organized” and continues to weaken.  However, we think that enough of the mid-level system will remain intact to slowly increase rain chances for WAFB’s communities over the next couple of days.

As is common during the summer, we’ve got plenty of moisture in the air from the surface into the mid-levels and that will continue through the week.  At the same time, daytime heating through the first half of the day will help de-stabilize the atmosphere and get things rising in the morning with cumulus clouds building well before noon.

For now, we’ll go with a 30% to 40% rain chance for Thursday, with a 40% rain chance for Friday.  Rain chances increase again into the weekend: a 50% to 60% chance of showers and t-storms for your neighborhood on Saturday with a 50-50 rain chance returning for Sunday.

Heading into the early and middle part of next week, we ease back the afternoon rain probabilities to something more isolated to scattered (roughly 30%); not “dry” area-wide, but notably less coverage than what we’re expecting for the weekend.

In the tropics?  After that unusual start with two May ‘named’ storms (Alberto and Beryl), a surprise Hurricane Chris developing north of 40°N latitude, and a ‘misbehaving’ Debby meandering over the northern Gulf, we’ve had a “quiet” past three weeks in the Atlantic Basin.  And the outlook over the next several days looks good, with nothing in the offing any time soon!

Rain Chances on the Rise

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta


Our forecasted run of “drier” weather looks like it might be ending a little more quickly that we thought yesterday, when we called for very limited rain chances for today and Wednesday. Although today’s rains were very limited (as expected), the guidance for Wednesday has become a bit “wetter.” We’re now going with scattered showers and storms for Wednesday (a 30% to 40% rain chance for your neighborhood) instead of the isolated rains we anticipated yesterday.

But the remainder of the forecast through the rest of the work week and the weekend remains essentially unchanged at this point. Look for scattered, mainly-afternoon showers and storms for Thursday and Friday (40% probabilities for both days), with 50% to 60% rain chances posted for Saturday and Sunday. Rain coverage should slacken a tad early next week.

On the national scale, heat-related warnings, watches and advisories are posted over much of the nation’s northeastern quadrant today, with highs approaching 100° or more from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. 

Closer to home, we continue to watch the mid/upper low spinning to our east. Yesterday the system was located just off the Georgia/Florida Atlantic Coast, but as we mentioned, it has worked its way to the west. As of today, the low is centered along the Georgia/Florida state line and continues to move west. The thinking at this time is that the system will weaken and essentially dissipate before it comes as far west as Louisiana, but it is still worth a watch. In any case, there is no concern for this to change into something more “tropical.”

And in the tropics? All remains rather quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

More Rain in the Coming Days

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

For the third day in a row, the biggest rains of the day arrived in metro Baton Rouge arrived by or before noon, helping to “settle down” the atmosphere and keeping the afternoon relatively quiet weatherwise for the Capital City.

Today’s main rains were the result of a long-lasting outflow boundary that began in southeast Texas (around Houston in the pre-dawn hours) and then marched east at about 20 mph through the morning and afternoon. Although the boundary has weakened throughout the day as it continued east, evidence of it is still very apparent on Titan9 Doppler at 4PM, extending southward from eastern Mississippi into the northern Gulf.

With the line of storms “stabilizing” the atmosphere earlier in the day, most of us will remain rain-free through the evening and into the overnight. But as we’ve seen each of the past few days, a “quiet” evening and overnight will allow the very-moist air over southern Louisiana to begin to “de-stabilize” once again by Thursday morning. Look for isolated to scattered showers to return for the morning commute.
Although the pronounced upper-level “closed” low that has prompted our recent run of “wet” weather over the past several days has lost much of its structure, an upper trough (a “weakness”) still lingers over the central Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley. That trough looks to stay around for at least another two or three days, keeping our weather unsettled right into - - and possibly through - - the coming weekend.

Rain in the form of showers and a few t-storms is likely for Thursday, with the clouds and rain keeping highs in the 80°s once again. For now, we’re going with a 50-50 rain chance for Friday, but that may still be on the low side. Even the weekend is currently posted with a 50% rain chance for both days, so keep the umbrella within reach.

The upper trough should start to relax by Saturday, allowing for a bit more sunshine and a return of highs at or even just above 90° for the weekend. At this point, the guidance suggests that we should expect more typical summer days for next week, with lows in the 70°s, highs in the low 90°s, and scattered, mainly-afternoon rains.

Soggy Weather Continues

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

The morning rains were more widespread and more active than Jay had expected, and that dealt a real blow to the forecast for the entire day.  Not only was it a “wetter” morning commute than Jay expected, but those morning rains also helped stabilize the atmosphere a bit through much of the day, keeping rains on the light side through the late morning and afternoon.

Even where it wasn’t raining at mid-day, the persistent cloud deck blocked the sun and held temps in check: many WAFB neighborhoods stayed in the 70°s for most or all of the afternoon -- an appreciated change from the blistering heat during a good bit of the previous four to six weeks!

Although it looks like the mid/upper-level low responsible for some of the storminess over the past few days is “filling” a bit (losing its influence on the regional weather), guidance continues to suggest a mid/upper trough will influence our weather for  the next several days, at least.  Given that set-up, we’re keeping fairly good rain chances in the forecast for the coming days.  But unlike today, we think that the main focus for the timing of rains through the latter half of the work week and into the weekend will be towards the afternoon -- something a bit more typical for the summer season.

That’s not to say that the overnights and early mornings will be completely dry.  We’re keeping isolated rains in the overnight and early morning forecasts for both tonight into early Wednesday and again the following overnight and early AM period.  Early morning rains will tend to be closer to the coast, but isolated showers for the metro area morning commute certainly can’t be ruled out.

Set those afternoon and early evening rain chances at 40% to 50% for each day through the work week and the weekend.  Morning lows will be in the 70°s (low to mid 70°s for metro Baton Rouge), with highs in the upper 80°s to low 90°s for most WAFB communities, depending on when the local rains begin.

While many of you have had enough of this run of wet weather, the lawns, gardens, and landscape are certainly enjoying it.  We had been getting a bit dry, and these last few days are not only helping to take any drought threat out of the local picture, but providing a decent amount of deeper-soil water recharge for the longer range.

All remains quiet in the tropical Atlantic, and that’s the way we like it!

Wetter Pattern Persists This Week

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As of 3PM, we hadn’t seen anything close to the rain coverage over the WAFB viewing area that was expected for today (Monday), even though a few showers and t-storms started popping in the greater Baton Rouge metro area. By 4PM it was clear that most of us would miss out on rain today and that the evening commute would be a mainly-dry one for most. And after the excessive downpours and lightning-charged t-storms that moved through portions of the Baton Rouge metro area on Sunday, I doubt anyone minds.

Thankfully, the persistent upper-level ridge that baked not just Louisiana -- but much of the nation -- over the past many weeks has finally relented, contracted and shifted to the west, taking the cap off of our atmosphere. With that high-pressure “lid” removed, our warm-and-moist Gulf air will be allowed to do its normal summer season rain “magic” throughout the week and into the weekend. If you’re going to be out and about, especially in the afternoons, make sure that your umbrella goes along for the trip.

We will keep rain chances at or above July norms through the coming seven days, with probabilities posted at 40% to 50% right through the work week, the weekend and early next week. Morning lows will remain in the low to mid 70°s, with afternoon highs in the upper 80°s to low 90°s. The highs will be dependent on where -- and how early -- the first clouds and showers develop each day.

With the afternoon and early evening storms “working over” the atmosphere (stabilizing the atmosphere), rains should die down by or soon after sunset each day for just about everyone, Most morning drives will be muggy but dry for inland sites, although we could see showers in the early morning hours along the coast just about every day.

And the tropics? Things have certainly picked up in the eastern Pacific, with hurricanes Daniel and Emilia going strong, but the Atlantic remains rather quiet, with not so much as an “area of interest” to watch according to the National Hurricane Center. And no one should be complaining about that!

Hot, Isolated Storms for the 4th

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

It was back into the mid 90°s once again for many WAFB neighborhoods on Tuesday afternoon.  For Baton Rouge’s Metro Airport, that makes 10 of the past 11 days with highs of 95° or above -- maybe not a record, but it’s still tough to handle.  And for many neighborhoods, the run of heat has been accompanied by a substantial dry spell ... more and more folks are turning on the sprinklers!

Some neighborhoods got a decent rain on Tuesday afternoon, but in general, there was less coverage and most of the t-storms that did develop were not as intense as some seen on Monday.  Our thinking for Wednesday -- Independence Day -- is to plan essentially for a repeat of today, with spotty to isolated afternoon showers, including a couple of rumbles of thunder for a few neighborhoods.  But as was true for Tuesday, limited coverage of rains on Wednesday means only a few get a cooling, needed shower.  And most of us will see a return of mid 90°s for Wednesday afternoon, with peak Heat Index values up around 105°, reaching the “Dangerous” category for prolonged exposure!

Whatever rains do develop on Wednesday should be well out of the way by the evening’s fireworks festivities.  Temps in the 8-9PM window will still be in the 80°s just about everywhere, so be prepared for a warm evening.

Yesterday we mentioned that the upper-level ridge that has been largely responsible for the recent heat wave was expected to weaken and shift a bit to the west in the coming days, and it still looks like that will be the case.  By Thursday, we should see a slight uptick in rain chances that will persist into the weekend, with even better rain chances by Sunday.  By the weekend, our daily weather should be something a little bit more like “normal” for July: highs in the low 90°s with 30% to 40% rain chances each day.  Even then, however, we’re keeping the early morning minimums in the mid 70°s, slightly above July long-term norms.

Nothing significant to discuss in the tropics.

Here’s hoping that you get to enjoy a little Independence Day rest and relaxation, even if it’s going to be another sweltering day!

No Quick End to the mid 90°s!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Many neighborhoods just can’t seem to get around those mid 90°s for afternoon highs as regional surface high pressure combines with upper-level ridging to keep temps running above the norm, even for July!  And to add to the discomfort, the low-level humidity returned over the weekend and will remain with us through the work week, adding to the heat stress.

We did get some showers and t-storms rumbling in SW Mississippi and the Florida Parishes during the afternoon, as well as a few showers over the coastal parishes.  A handful of Weather Watchers and locations received more than one-half-inch of rain this afternoon, but it looks like most of us missed out.  Not only has it been warmer-than-normal, but it appears as though many of us are slipping back towards drought-like conditions.

Monday’s afternoon storms turned out to be rather “active” for a few communities, with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, some gusty winds and even small hail.  But these rains will die down as we lose the daytime heating, and we’ll go to mostly fair skies overnight.

For now, we’re thinking isolated showers at best for the next three days, with rain chances posted at less than 20% for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Meanwhile, the heat lingers with morning lows in the mid 70°s for metro Baton Rouge and highs returning to the mid 90°s through Thursday.

By the way ... for July 4th festivities, even if we get some afternoon rains and spotty storms, they should be long-gone by the time the evening fireworks get started!

As we head towards Friday and the weekend, it looks like the upper-level ridge that has been so persistent over these many days might retreat a bit to the west, taking the “lid” off the atmosphere and allowing slightly better afternoon rain chances.  If this scenario develops, then we can look for rain chances in the 30% to 40% range: not widespread soakings like many of you would like, but scattered rains and more cloud cover, hopefully knocking down the afternoon heat a bit.

And in the tropics?  Nothing going on for the time being, and no complaints about that from anyone!