Finally Some Sunshine on the Way!

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- rains ending, clouds slowly clearing

- light freeze for Friday & Saturday wake-ups for many

- milder into the weekend

 

Another truly nasty day: cold and wet with a thick overcast blocking the sun.  However, there is some (sun)light at the end of this cloud tunnel.  In fact, some of WAFB’s more western neighborhoods may see some sun streaks through the thinning clouds before sunset, although many WAFB communities may have to wait until tomorrow for the warming rays. 

 

We’re just about done with the rains as of the mid-afternoon, although some light showers continue to pop-up, especially closer to the coast.  And after this long run of a persistent overcast, the clouds will steadily clear-out through the evening and overnight.

 

We mentioned yesterday that while the clouds have kept the daytime temperatures rather chilly, those same clouds were keeping the overnight temperatures a little higher than what we would have experienced under fair night skies: the clouds were insulating us.  Well, that blanketing layer will disappear this evening and overnight while we maintain a light northerly wind. 

 

That combination will mean a light freeze for many WAFB neighborhoods, especially those north of the I-10/12 corridor.  We’re calling for a metro Baton Rouge morning low on Friday right at 32°.

 

Clear skies and sunshine on Friday morning should mean a nice warm-up, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 50°s by Friday afternoon – boy, will that feel good!

 

It should be a nice January weekend - - and well-deserved too after the recent run of cold weather.  Plan for an equally cold start on Saturday, with sunrise temperatures for many of us in the low to mid 30°s, but fair skies during the day gets most of us into the low 60°s for Saturday afternoon.  And the slow warm-up continues into Sunday, with fair skies and a morning start around 40° for Baton Rouge with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60°s.

 

A “dry” cold front slides through the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.  Monday morning’s start will be in the mid to upper 30°s but we’ve got fair weather on the forecast board for Monday with highs in the low to mid 60°s.  It should be fair to partly cloudy skies for Tuesday with highs in the upper 60°s.  Although we’ll add-in a slight rain chance for Wednesday afternoon and evening, right now it looks like just about everyone stays dry until next Thursday.

Damp, Staying Chilly on Thursday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- thick cloud deck persists

- rains move in tonight into Thursday morning

- a little warmer over the weekend

The clouds have taken hold and their firm grip continues through the night and well into Thursday.  In fact, it now looks like the rains we’ve been talking about for several days will hang around later into the day on Thursday than what we previously thought.  If you remember, yesterday we had the rains around mid-day or so with skies clearing through the mid to late afternoon.  The latest guidance now keeps the rains in the area past noon, then slowly tapering off into the late afternoon. 

So it will be a wet morning drive with the last lingering showers still in the area for the evening commute.  The clouds also hang around longer too: with the slow clearing not beginning until the early evening.

All that means a couple of things in terms of temperatures.  Like yesterday and today, the heavy deck of clouds kept afternoon temperatures for many WAFB neighborhoods in the upper 30°s to 40°s -- nearly 20° below seasonal norms.  But like last night and early this morning, the clouds will also keep overnight and early morning lows on Thursday a little warmer than we would expect under fair skies, given the steady low-level northerly winds. 

We’ll call for a Thursday morning low in the upper 30°s for the Baton Rouge metro area.  So it’s a cold start to the day and remember, you’ll want the umbrella as you step out the door tomorrow morning.  The rains will begin overnight with the first isolated showers possibly arriving in the WAFB viewing area before midnight.  The rain coverage expands through the pre-dawn hours, making for that wet morning drive and bus ride for the youngsters. Yesterday we were thinking about a 50% to maybe a 60% rain chance for the Red Stick: now we’re upping that to 70% or more.

Thursday’s “overrunning” rains under gray skies will be fueled by an area of low pressure over the northern Gulf, which gets an upper-air “assist” from a disturbance passing by to our north.  There is no threat for severe weather: any active thunderstorms should remain over the Gulf as the surface low moves to the east.  So these won’t be heavy rains … just a “cold” rain.  We’re thinking rain totals by Thursday evening for most of us will come in somewhere between 0.1” to 0.3” with totals approaching a half-inch along the coast.

Once the winter Gulf low and the upper-air energy shift farther to the east, we’ll see a welcomed clearing of our skies.  But the northerly surface flow remains in play throughout Thursday and into Friday.  We’ll lose the “insulating/blanketing” effect of the clouds for our overnight temperatures and that means a colder start for Friday morning under fair skies.  The Capital City will flirt with a light morning freeze to start Friday and our friends along the LA/MS border could see lows in the upper 20°s.

But with mainly clear skies through the day, the sunshine should get most WAFB neighborhoods into the mid to upper 50°s by Friday afternoon.  It’ll be another cold start for Saturday, with sunrise temperatures for many of us in the low to mid 30°s, but fair to partly-cloudy skies during the day gets us in the low 60°s for Saturday afternoon -- something closer to mid-January normal highs.

The forecast for Sunday is a good one too, with a morning start in the 40°s and afternoon highs in the 60°s for just about everyone.  All in all, a fine looking January weekend, and well-deserved after such a cloud, chilly and all-around disagreeable work week.

Our current extended forecast now remains mild and mostly-dry through mid-week.​

Staying Under the Clouds!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- clouds remain, colder tonight
- a little rain returns for late Wednesday into early Thursday
- modest warming over the weekend

A tendency towards clouds will persist into the first half of Thursday, with a chance of mainly-light rain very late Wednesday into early Thursday. In addition, temperatures will remain below-average through Saturday morning before moderating just in time for some weekend fun.

Northerly flow at low levels will keep things cool for the next several days. In fact, were it not for the clouds, metro Baton Rouge would probably get a brief, light freeze for tomorrow’s wake-up. However, Pacific moisture at the mid/upper-levels is being chilled from below by the surface cold air from the north, and that should keep a decent cloud deck in place over our region through tonight and Wednesday. Fortunately, although the surface air is chilly and dry, the cloud deck above should offer sufficient “insulation” to keep most of us above-freezing tonight and into Wednesday morning. The possible exceptions would be WAFB communities near and north of the LA/MS border: they might flirt with a brief wake-up freeze.

We could see some peaks of sunshine on Wednesday, but we’re thinking a mostly-cloudy to cloudy day as the rule with highs in the low 50°s for metro BR. Heading into late Wednesday, we’ll introduce modest rain chances that will linger into Thursday morning, For now, let’s call it a 50% chance from late Wednesday evening into late Thursday morning for the Capital City -- running a little lower for our more northern viewers and running 60% or better closer to the coast. 

Low pressure over the Gulf will be the rainmaker, but with the main storm energy remains well to our south and out over the open waters: that means generally-light “overrunning” rains for most or all of us. While some may hear a rumble or two along the coast, we don’t expect any active weather and most rain accumulations should be under a quarter-inch. In fact, some along and north of the LA/MS state line may see little if any measurable rain.

Any rain that does fall should be over before the lunch hour on Thursday, with the clouds clearing through the afternoon. Thursday morning’s clouds and scattered rains should keep Red Stick area lows in the upper 30°s to low 40°s. And while skies should be clearing through the afternoon, highs on Thursday will top-out in the low 50°s for Baton Rouge.

We’re currently calling for a low of 33° for Metro AP on Friday morning, but with the chilly northerly flow still in place and generally clear skies for Friday morning, that has the look of a light, brief wake-up freeze -- at least for those living north and east of metro BR. Sunshine through the day should take Friday highs into the upper 50°s -- possibly around 60° for some -- on Friday afternoon. And while many of us will drop back down into the mid 30°s for Saturday’s sunrise, just about everyone sees highs climb into the 60°s under fair to partly-cloudy skies for Saturday afternoon.

And for now, Sunday looks pretty good too: a sun/cloud mix through the day with morning lows in the 40°s and afternoon highs in the mid 60°s -- a welcomed dry and mild January weekend!

Clouds Linger, Cooler on Tuesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- stays dry, but clouds linger through Tuesday into Wednesday
- cooler days, with highs in the 50°s through Friday

We started the day rather mild, with morning temperatures in the mid and upper 50°s and a few passing showers. The big weather story this morning with the widespread dense fog, which persisted into the late morning for some locations. 

The wet and “almost warm” feel for the past couple of days exits the region this evening and overnight -- a cold front has pushed through the WAFB area today and continues its march to the east. The front wasn’t much of a rainmaker, with spotty light showers and patchy sprinkles at best, but you may have noted the “FROPA” (frontal passage in meteorology shorthand) by the day’s wind shifts. Through the morning and early afternoon, the winds veered (clockwise shift) from a muggy southwesterly flow off the Gulf to a “drier” (less humid) flow from the northwest (behind the front).

So we say “Goodbye!” to the rains and to the 60°s, although it looks like the clouds will hang around for another day or more. In fact, we’re calling for a return of isolated showers late Wednesday into early Thursday before we get a complete “clear out.”

Look for Tuesday morning lows in the mid 40°s for the Red Stick with Tuesday afternoon highs in the low 50°s. By Wednesday morning, the drier, continental air will take lows down into the mid 30°s for metro Baton Rouge, with WAFB communities near and north of the LA/MS state line flirting with a light, brief freeze. We’re calling for highs in the low 50°s for both Wednesday and Thursday.

A reinforcing surge of drier air on Thursday should clear skies by the evening and take the Capital City to a light wake-up freeze on Friday. But the cold air doesn’t stay long: it’ll be mid to upper 50°s under sunshine for Friday, then mid 30°s for Saturday morning. And by Saturday afternoon, Baton Rouge should be back in the 60°s.

Another Freeze, Wintry Mix on Friday?

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- freezes return tonight and Saturday morning
- wintry mix possible for Friday?
- slowly getting warmer through the weekend
- rains are back for Sunday and next week

The good news: the lowest of the temperature readings are gone, at least for some time to come. Baton Rouge dropped to 20° -- tying the record for this date -- and McComb set a new record for today with a bitterly cold low of 15°! Other sites across the region approached, tied or set record lows too. And the cold lingered well into the day: Metro Airport was still at freezing as late as 12:30pm!

Just about everyone topped-out in the 30°s for highs today -- way too cold for South Louisiana. 

The not-so-good news: with today’s chilly high temperatures, it won’t take long this evening before most of us are back below freezing. For Baton Rouge, while we won’t get nearly as cold tonight into Friday morning as we were earlier today, freeze durations around the metro areas and points north will still run as much as 10 to 14 hours or more. We’re expecting lows tonight in the upper 20°s for the Capital City.

The developing story -- and scuttlebutt at the water coolers -- is with regard to the potential for wintry precipitation on Friday. We’re setting precipitation percentages at 30%, possibly 40%, for the day as a whole, but those chances are lower during the early morning. If we do get some early morning precipitation, it won’t amount to much, although it could be in the form of a little sleet, maybe even a few flakes or ice pellets, especially north and west of metro BR. Surfaces in the morning will also support freezing rain (falls as liquid then freezes on contact), but again, we think that any areal coverage in the early morning will be very limited and what does fall will generate very little, if any, accumulations. If we do get something falling on Friday, the best chance will be more towards the middle of the day. 

In either case, we are not anticipating a real problem for the morning commute. However, if you encounter moisture on elevated surface and bridges, drive with extra care. There isn’t likely to be any kind of problem on well-traveled roads and bridges, but be cautious on rural bridges -- again, mainly to the north and west of metro BR.

We’ve got another freeze on the way for Saturday morning -- with lows again down in the 20°s for the Red Stick, but it looks like that will be the last freeze for a while across metro BR. Saturday should be a partly cloudy day, although it stays rather cool with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40°s. Saturday begins a slow warming trend, with metro area lows in the mid 30°s for Sunday morning and highs on Sunday afternoon in the mid 50°s. 

The weekend warming will not be the only change to our weather: we’ll trade in our recent run of dry weather for a wet spell. We’re calling for scattered-to-likely rains each day from Sunday through Wednesday. Fortunately, these aren’t likely to be heavy-rain days -- the NWS Weather Prediction Center is calling rain totals of roughly 1.0” to 1.5” for our area over the next 5 to 7 days.

Hard Freeze Likely on Thursday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- not quite as cold tonight
- “Hard Freeze” on the way for Thursday morning

60°s and sunshine this afternoon felt pretty good. But hopefully you’ve taken the opportunity to get ready for the bitter cold that arrives tomorrow night and into Thursday morning.

The National Weather Service has posted a HARD FREEZE WATCH for Thursday morning for most of the WAFB viewing area -- only St. Mary and the southern portions of Terrebonne and Lafourche are excluded and even there a freeze is expected. The WATCH will almost certainly be upgraded to a WARNING tomorrow as we await the arrival of the coldest air of the season thus far, delivering the lowest temperatures for the WAFB viewing area since last January.

The freezes we’ve experienced the past two mornings are just a hint at what is coming for Thursday: our current forecast calls for Thursday morning temperatures to drop into the low 20°s for metro Baton Rouge, with temperatures down in the ‘teens for areas near and north of the LA/MS state line. Those forecasted lows won’t be record-setters for Thursday, but they will get close. And frankly, anything in the low 20°s doesn’t need to be a record-breaker to get your attention! (By the way, while we aren’t ready to buy into it just yet, the NWS is calling for lows in the ‘teens for Baton Rouge!)

Before we get there, you’ve got some time to make preparations. Most WAFB neighborhoods will dodge a freeze tonight and into Wednesday morning, and those that due dip to freezing tomorrow morning won’t stay there long. But Wednesday afternoon won’t be nearly as mild as Tuesday afternoon -- the northern half of the WAFB viewing area will be lucky to reach 50° for a Wednesday high. And temperatures will start a rapid fall after sunset on Wednesday, with the Capital City likely to be at or below 32° before the 10pm newscast.

Factor in the expected winds from late Wednesday into early Thursday and we could see windchill readings as much as 10° lower than the air temperatures: that means single-digit windchills possible by Thursday's sun-up for many of WAFB’s northern communities. For those that have to work outdoors on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, we recommend several layers to fight the cold and cut the wind: if you will be outdoors for an extended period, a scarf or facemask would be a good idea too. We just aren’t accustomed to this kind of cold!

Plan on freezing temperatures for as much as 12 to 15 hours for metro Baton Rouge from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with durations of as much a 14 to 18 hours to the north and east of the Red Stick.

If you can’t bring the pets inside, make sure that they have a sheltered spot out of the wind with dry bedding -- they’re not ready for this kind of cold either. Needless to say, this freeze -- both in terms of the very low readings and the expected durations -- can be very destructive in the gardens. Cover the tender vegetation and bring the delicates indoors if possible. 

Most importantly, don’t forget your neighbors, especially those that struggle when it gets this cold. Be extra, extra careful with space heaters and supplemental heat sources -- three feet of clearance around those heaters and be sure to turn them off before heading to bed. We’ve seen too many house fires in the area already this winter.

And about the pipes? If you’ve got pipes that are susceptible to hard freezes, get them wrapped. And while it may seem wasteful, plumbers encourage allowing a “drip” or “trickle” for those pipes that proved to be frequent problems. It may cost a little to let the water run, but it can provide some piece of mind and save a ton compared to an emergency call for repairs!

Everybody gets above freezing for a handful of hours or more on Thursday: good news for those concerned about their pipes. In most cases, it’s the freeze duration that produces the ruptured plumbing, not so much the absolute low. While we won’t be above freezing for a prolonged spell -- maybe around 10 hours or so for Baton Rouge and less to the north and east of the Capital City -- that should be enough to warm the pipes a bit, and certainly allow you a chance to check the more susceptible plumbing.

But there will be another freeze for Thursday night into Friday morning and yet again for many of us on Saturday morning. Fortunately, neither will be anything as severe as Thursday morning’s chiller. Expect upper 20°s to around 30° for metro Baton Rouge for Friday’s sunrise and lows in the low 30°s for Saturday morning. Friday morning’s freeze might last as long as 8 hours or more for the Red Stick, with just a brief freeze for Saturday morning. (Of course, the freeze durations will be a bit longer for areas north and east of Baton Rouge).

Will this be the only “big chill” for the winter? It’s possible, but don’t bank on it. Long-range forecast ‘experts’ are calling for about an 80% chance for near-normal to below-normal temperatures through March, with better than a 40% chance for average seasonal temperatures to be well-below normal. That alone does not mean more Arctic outbreaks after this one, but it hints that we should be ready for another round or two over the next six weeks or so.

Here’s a quick update on some of our local rivers as of Tuesday afternoon:
*The Comite at Joor Rd. is now below 4 feet and in good shape.
*The Amite at Denham Springs crested yesterday at 27.1 ft and is now displaying a steady fall.
*The Amite at Bayou Manchac is nearing crest. The NWS River Forecast Center again lowered their forecast crest this morning: look for Bayou Manchac to crest this evening at around 5.7 ft.
*For the lower Amite, no problems anticipated for Port Vincent or French Settlement as forecasted crests have been lowered and no significant rises are expected in the coming days.
*The Tickfaw at Montpelier crested yesterday below floodstage and is showing a steady fall.
*The Tickfaw at Holden is still climbing, with the updated forecast calling for a peak of 14.0 ft on Wednesday evening, about one foot below floodstage.
*The Tangipahoa at Robert remains in flood but will crest this afternoon just above 16 feet (floodstage is 15.0 ft). The river is expected to begin a slow fall this evening, with the site back below floodstage by mid-day Wednesday.

Stormy Saturday, Much Cooler Sunday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- even “wetter” for Saturday
- MARGINAL Risk for severe weather on Saturday for most
- dry but much cooler for Sunday and the upcoming work week

Although the day started off wet for many of us with some passing early morning showers, Friday was mainly rain-free through the mid-morning into the late afternoon for most WAFB neighborhoods. Still the air stayed rather damp and gray skies gave the day a somewhat gloomy feel.

A warm front will continue to lift northward out of the northern Gulf and cross the viewing area later this evening, pushing well inland tonight. That means a return of a few showers overnight with a rumble or two of thunder possible. And it stays muggy, with temperatures remaining in the 60°s through the night for just about everyone. Patches of fog could be an issue in some locations tonight and into Saturday’s sunrise.

For Saturday morning, the WAFB viewing area will be situated in the heart of the “warm” sector with the warm front draped east-west from southern Arkansas into north-central Mississippi. At the same time, a cold front to our west will stretch from near the ArkLaTex south-southwestward to the Texas Coast. That’s a set-up for not just more rain, but some stormy weather as well, especially by the afternoon. For tomorrow, the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of the WAFB area under a “MARGINAL RISK” for severe weather (the lowest category) with our eastern and northeastern communities under a “SLIGHT RISK.” 

The SPC lists the primary severe-weather threats for Saturday as (1) damaging winds followed by (2) isolated tornadoes. We’ll have to wait and see whether the SPC posts a Watch for our area -- either a Severe T-Storm or Tornado Watch -- during the day. At this stage, it is too early to tell: right now the main dynamics for severe weather look like they will be well to our north. However, just a modest change in the current forecast set-up could result in better opportunities for active to severe storms. Regardless, however, a bit of good news with this frontal scenario is that the main severe-threat “window” will be during daylight hours, likely starting after sunrise and continuing in the afternoon, but ending before sunset for our viewing area. Given a choice, it’s always better to have severe weather during the daytime rather than at night. 

We’re thinking widespread rains of between 0.5” to 2.0”, with some isolated pockets of 3.0” or more. Once again, getting close but not quite wet enough to be a serious flood-maker. We do expect nuisance flooding and standing water in the usual spots, but the area rivers should be okay – assuming that rain totals stay within our expected range.

By late Saturday night into the early hours Sunday, the cold front should be draped over the extreme southeastern parishes, to the east of most or all of the WAFB viewing area.

A cold, Canadian air mass behind Saturday’s front will deliver a big temperature change for Sunday. After highs in the 70°s for many WAFB neighborhoods on Saturday, highs will top-out in the 50°s for many of us on Sunday. It gets even chillier on Monday, with morning lows in the 30°s and highs only reaching the low 50°s.

Lows could get down to freezing for WAFB’s northern communities on Tuesday morning.

But that’s not the end of the chilly weather: a reinforcing surge of cold-and-dry continental air arrives by Wednesday, and our extended outlook right now calls for lows in the 20°s for Thursday morning.

Baton Rouge’s Metro Airport (BTR) has fallen into the 20°s twice so far since October 1st: on November 18th (29°) and again on November 19th (27°). While November was a cold month by South Louisiana standards, the past few months have been rather mild for the most part. Through today, the BTR has recorded only 6 “freezes” (the long-term average through Jan 2nd is 8) and the seasonal average temperature since October 1st is 60°, just about average for Metro Airport for the past 90+ days.

Note, however, that the current extended range seasonal outlook -- the 3-month temperature outlook averaged across Jan-Feb-Mar -- suggests better than a 40% chance for seasonal temperatures to rank well-below normal for the period. By well-below-normal, we mean ranking in the bottom third of historical 3-month averages for this time period. You may be glad you got that new coast for the Holidays!