More of the Same...

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Appears we are locked into a fairly consistent July weather pattern for at least the next couple of days: morning minimums in the mid 70°s, afternoon highs in the low to mid 90°s, and passing afternoon isolated to scattered t-showers for Thursday and Friday.

The warm, moist and unstable air continues to flow inland off the Gulf, while the upper-level ridge extending from the Plains to the Southeast U.S. limits -- but does not completely halt -- vertical lift and afternoon rain development.  We’ll go with 20% to 30% coverage for the next couple of days, with ever-so-slightly higher rain chances (30% - 40%) for Saturday.   Keep afternoon rain chances for Sunday at about 30% as well.

A cool front will sag southward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the weekend, but won’t make it this far south.  So there is no relief from the heat or the humidity in the 7-day forecast, with 70°s for lows and 90°s for highs into next week. 

Yep -- looks like a routine summertime pattern remains in place for the Gulf Coast, with afternoon “sea-breezes” being the main instigators for the isolated to afternoon rain.

It’s still quiet in the tropics.  Yesterday we noted the little disturbance in the central Atlantic with a modest chance of development, but that non-tropical spinner continues to move fairly quickly to the NE and is soon to encounter much cooler waters, ending any chance for it to become “Ernesto.”  While there are a few easterly waves moving through the tropical Atlantic region, none show any threat of development at this time.  We may very well end 2012 without any ‘named’ storms during July; quiet Julys for the tropics are not rare, but nor are they common - - roughly 70% of all past Julys has at least one ‘named’ storm.

Why the lack of activity given the existence of tropical waves?  At least some tropical weather experts are putting some of the blame on dust floating in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere -- dust that originates from the Sahara Desert.  The dust limits solar heating and helps “dry” the air, inhibiting the development of thunderstorms within the tropical waves ... which means: so far, so good!