Staying Mild Through Thanksgiving!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

We’ve been through a run of “cooler-than-normal” days -- average daily temperatures for each of the previous seven days (Nov 12-18) were below normal. Although most of us climbed into the lower 70°s this afternoon, even today’s average temperature is below-normal thanks to the chilly start in the 30°s for many WAFB neighborhoods.

We’ll see a modest warm-up kick-in over the coming days, with morning lows in the mid to upper 40°s (closer to normal for this time of year) and afternoon highs in the mid 70°s (actually a few degrees above normal). Yet the warm-up does not come with much change in our regional humidity. Dew points are likely to remain between the 40°s and low 50°s right into the weekend -- that means very comfortable afternoons with cool-but-not-cold nights and early mornings.

What about rain this week? Not a chance, at least through Turkey Day. Plan on plenty of sunshine through Thanksgiving Day, with partly cloudy skies in store for holiday shop-o-holics headed out the door for Black Friday bargains.

The way it looks right now, our next cold front isn’t scheduled to arrive until late Friday or early Saturday, and the latest guidance is suggesting little if any rain as it slides by. Temps may drop about 5° or so on the backside of that frontal passage, but the modest cool-down is just about all we can expect with the front other than some clouds.

So where is the rain? We’ve been dealing with a split jet stream system: the polar jet running across the northern states and along the U.S./Canada border and a weaker southern jet (sub-tropical jet stream) cutting across the southern states. For now, U.S. storms systems are riding along the more active polar jet and remaining well to our north. If our current analysis is correct for the forecasted Friday/Saturday frontal passage, the main storm energy with that system also stays well to the north, with only the trailing tail of the cold front passing through the central Gulf Coast.

Most of us have had a prolonged run of drier-than-average weather over the past several weeks ... certainly a little rain wouldn’t hurt. We aren't in "drought" just yet, thanks in part to the run of cooler-than-average days, but another week or two of rain-free weather may push us over the edge. However, the dry spell has allowed many rivers and bayous to drop to near “base flow” levels, and that is good news for those concerned about the threat of winter flooding in the coming weeks when the rains do return.