Where did I leave that umbrella?
Clouds
moved into the area sooner than we expected, with mostly cloudy skies during the
morning keeping lows in the mid 40°s for metro Baton Rouge. But it stayed dry
today and will so through the evening.
The winds
have come around and are now flowing off the Gulf -- that means increasing
low-level humidity through the afternoon, evening and overnight. As a result,
Friday morning lows will be as much as 10° warmer than this morning’s lows . . .
and we’ll throw in a few morning showers to boot. As Friday wears on, rain
chances will increase, climbing to around 40% for the afternoon.
A warm
front will lift north out of the Gulf on Friday, putting the WAFB viewing area
in the “warm sector” for much of the day. The front will essentially stall to
our north for the latter half of Friday and remain there through much of
Saturday. Low pressure will develop along the stalled boundary by Saturday
afternoon and move east, pulling a cold front through the viewing area late
Saturday into the pre-dawn hours Sunday. The weekend cold front sweep out into
the Gulf during the day on Sunday, with a cooler and dry Canadian air mass
settling over the lower Mississippi Valley.
This
weekend frontal scenario means even a better chance of rain on Saturday compared
to Friday. In fact, there now appears to be some potential for strong to severe
storms starting Saturday afternoon and extending into the overnight hours. The
NWS Storm Prediction Center has included most of the central Gulf Coast --
including all of the WAFB viewing area -- under a “SLIGHT RISK” for severe
weather during this time frame.
The latest
outlook for Saturday’s cold front suggests a significant boost in the storminess
potential, with the forecast for instability ahead of the advancing front now
looking sufficient for isolated storms capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds and even a tornado or two. We’ll be watching this situation closely over
the next two days to see if the guidance maintains this limited, but noteworthy,
weather threat.
After the
front clears the coast on Sunday, we should be set-up for an extended run of
dry, but much cooler weather through next week.
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