Mixed 'Weather Bag' this weekend
This
morning’s low of 69° for Metro Airport was the first time the airport dipped
below 70° since the morning of July 13th. If you are one of those early-morning
commuters, runners or walkers, you probably noticed that the air was a tad
cooler and less humid.
Even with
the day’s mild start, the heat returned for the afternoon. However, once again
the forecasts for mid 90°s were a little too high, although just about everyone
saw temps climb into the low 90°s. With dew points ranging from the upper 60°s
to low 70°s for most WAFB neighborhoods, at least the mid-day heat was
tolerable, especially for late July.
The recent
run of “mainly dry” days comes to an end, if only briefly. A cool front
currently to our north and northwest -- linked to a surface low over the
Southern Plains -- will continue to move in our direction tonight and tomorrow.
As the surface low slides east, a trailing cool front should move into the WAFB
viewing area on Saturday afternoon, hoisting rain chances into the “likely”
category and accompanied by scattered t-storms. Not everyone will get a
soaking, and we don’t expect an all-day rain event, but rain coverage should be
fairly widespread -- we’re calling for a 60% chance of rain for your
backyard.
While we
can’t rule out a few strong storms as the front pushes through, the good news is
that we are not anticipating a severe-weather outbreak with the frontal
passage. Saturday’s rains should also mean a break from the 90°s for many WAFB
communities.
We had
expected Sunday to also be another day with scattered afternoon t-showers, but
our latest guidance is backing off on the higher rain chances. Our forecast for
Sunday now calls for only isolated afternoon rains, with highs climbing for most
of us back into the low 90°s.
In the
extended outlook, our forecast calls for isolated afternoon showers, at best,
for most or all of the work week. Plan on lows in the low to mid 70°s with
highs back into the low 90°s each day..
So ... what
about Dorian?
T.S. Dorian
has been struggling a bit over the last day. After reaching peak sustained
winds of 60 mph yesterday, Dorian has weakened a tad and the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for additional weakening in the
coming days. In fact, the NHC’s 4PM Advisory calls for Dorian to drop to
depression strength within the next couple of days and then “dissipates” Dorian
by next Wednesday.
We admit
that the NHC’s forecast for the demise of Dorian comes as a bit of a surprise,
but clearly Dorian is headed into a region of a more hostile wind
shear.
Dorian has
maintained a west-northwest trajectory since becoming a tropical storm in the
eastern Atlantic and the forecast for the next few days shows that general trend
continuing through the weekend and into next week even while the system
struggles to survive. In fact, the latest forecast suggests a path that is
almost “due west” as the system approaches the Caribbean island
chains.
But here’s
the key: even if Dorian survives through the next five days, it’s likely that
the system will still be roughly 500 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico and likely
more than 1000 miles from coastal Louisiana in the middle of next week. So
let’s not start getting too concerned about Dorian just yet.
However,
this weekend would be a good time to review your “family hurricane plan” and
make sure that you are stocked and
ready-to-go.
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