Showers & T-Storms Arrive Early Friday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- showers & t-storms on Friday with a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms

- weekend is shaping up to be rather ‘wet’

The day’s sun/cloud mix combined with dew points in the 60°s and afternoon readings in the 80°s to make for a warm and muggy day.  It likely would have felt even “stickier’ had it not been for the gusty winds.  The winds will stay up into the evening and it remains breezy at times overnight with lows again in the mid to upper 60°s for most WAFB neighborhoods.

Strong Storms on Friday?

The cold front we’ve been talking about is still on track to arrive on Friday morning and it comes with a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms as it pushes through the WAFB viewing area.

The general consensus between three of our favorite models suggests scattered showers and storms in the pre-dawn hours approaching from the northwest, with rain chances steadily rising to “likely” by the mid to late morning.  Showers and storms remain “likely” into the early afternoon with the rain percentages slowly declining through the mid to late afternoon.  It could be a little dicey for those thinking about heading downtown for April’s first Live After Five.

The peak period for the severe weather threat for metro Baton Rouge appears to be from the mid morning until the early afternoon, with the threats extending a bit later into the day for WAFB communities east and southeast of the Red Stick.  Don’t be surprised to see at least parts of the WAFB viewing area -- especially the northern parishes and Mississippi counties -- included under a Severe Storm Watch sometime during the first half of the day.  The primary threats for severe weather will be damaging thunderstorm winds followed by large hail.  Tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially given the season, but that threat currently appears to be minimal.

Rains will wind down into Friday evening but you’ll want to keep the umbrella handy as the forecast for the weekend is a ‘wet’ one.

More Rain into the Weekend

The cold front that generates Friday’s rains will stall over the northern Gulf then return northward as a warm front late Saturday into early Sunday.  The onset of the first rains on Saturday is still a bit in question, but it looks like just about everyone gets in on the rain by Saturday evening.  We’ll call for isolated showers during the morning with scattered rains by Saturday afternoon, then rain likely into the evening as the front continues a slow northward march Saturday evening into early Sunday.

But that’s not the end of it for the coming weekend.  A surface low-pressure system will track from the Desert Southwest into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys from Saturday into Monday, dragging our next cold front into the Bayou State late Sunday into early Monday.  With a still-moist atmosphere in place and another surge of Gulf air arriving with this second cold front, the ingredients are there for some significant rains.  In addition, we may be dealing with another round of locally-strong-to-severe storms.