Sunday (06/08) Tropical Update

Here is your tropical update for South Louisiana for June 6th, 2014.

5 DAY OUTLOOK:

After watching the first invest of the season (90L) dissipate in the Bay of Campeche, the National Hurricane Center has given the all clear for the Atlantic Basin for the next 5 days.

Courtesy: www.nhc.noaa.gov

The Pacific Basin though has one area of low pressure that is currently being monitored.

A 50% probability has been given for an area of low pressure moving NW just off the coast of Mexico.  This could become the Pacific Basin's next tropical depression in the next day or two.  It poses no threat to South Louisiana.

10 DAY OUTLOOK: ***(DISCLAIMER: 10 day outlook is a long range forecast and can change rapidly and should NOT be accepted as "gospel" truth but only a small possibility and something to keep an eye on over next several days.)***

As we look beyond the 5 day window, one of our more reliable long range models is picking up on something.  The GFS (American) model is picking up on an area of low pressure developing in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula 7 days out Sunday June 15th.

GFS Model: Sunday June 15th @ 4 PM

The GFS model then takes this low north and slowly develops it as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS Model: Wednesday June 18th @ 6 AM

The image above from Wednesday morning June 18th shows a tropical depression or weak tropical storm sitting in the North Central Gulf of Mexico.

On the flip side here is an image taken from the same exact time from one of our other reliable models the ECMWF (European) model.

ECMWF Model: Wednesday June 18th @ 6 AM

As it pertains to model accuracy early this season so far; the GFS did indicate the formation of Invest 90L several days before the ECMWF.  But, the GFS didn't do well was predict the path and development of 90L.  The ECMWF did show 90L a couple of days out before forming.  It was the best performing model as it pertains to the actual path and development on the low pressure system.

So what should we take away from this?

1)  There is by no means a guarantee we will be dealing with a tropical system of some kind 10 days from now.

2)  This is something we will be watching for over the next several days. (still 7 days from even forming!)

3)  Stay with WAFB Weather, we'll keep you updated...