Looking Good for the 4th!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- drier, less humid for Friday and the weekend

- Category 1 Arthur threatening the North Carolina coast

Today was noticeably quieter and less humid weatherwise compared to Wednesday … and our forecast gets even “drier” just in time for the fourth of July weekend!

The weak cool front that we’ve been talking about this week has made it into south Louisiana and our latest analysis shows that it has sagged into the coastal parishes, putting most of the WAFB region on the “drier” (less humid) side.  What’s more, guidance suggests that the front will sag even farther south and into the coastal waters over the next 24-36 hours before washing-out. 

That means highs in the low 90°s for the next few days, but more importantly, continued lower levels of humidity for WAFB neighborhoods for the next few days.  The “drier” (continental) air from the north will deliver dew point temperatures down into the 60°s -- quite “comfortable” by our summer standards. 

What’s more, as you know, the dew point is a rough guide to our summertime lows.  That means that some WAFB neighborhoods -- especially those along and north of the I-10/12 corridor -- can expect sunrise temperatures in the 60°s, a considerably change after our string of days with wake-up temps in the mid to upper 70°s for much of this week.

And, of course, the “drier” air also means a drop in rain chances.  But it is summer in the South, and so a spotty shower or two can’t be entirely ruled out.  So we’ll allow for a spotty afternoon shower or two on Titan9 Doppler for the next three days.  Frankly, let’s not even give it a thought for July 4th, and go with “spotty” for Saturday and Sunday.

As you expect, however, the low humidity doesn’t hang around long; by early next week our typical Gulf humidity will have pushed its way back into the viewing area.  So by next Monday, we’ll ease those rain chances back up to around 20% to 30% or so, and keep them running at around 30% through the middle of the upcoming work week.  But for now, we don’t anticipate a return to the mid 90°s any time soon.

As for Arthur, it has become a nerve-racking threat for North Carolina.  As forecasted, Arthur reached Category 1 strength this morning.  But Arthur has been slow to turn to the northeast as forecasted today, bringing the eye of the hurricane closer to the coast this afternoon than the official forecast track has been suggesting.