Apparently much of the WAFB viewing area never quite got to the expected “convective temperature” -- this is the temperature at which the moist, low-level Gulf air mass gets enough lift from surface heating to build rain clouds. As of 2PM, there were some decent storms over SW Louisiana and coastal Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes, but most of the WAFB viewing area was still rain-free. The same was still true at 3PM, and even at 4PM, there wasn’t much “popping” in our viewing area. Apparently some mid-level dry air kept a bit of a “lid” on the afternoon development.
Any lingering thunderstorm threat should wind down fairly quickly later this evening as we remain under fair to partly-cloudy skies. Temps should slip to the low to mid 70°s for metro BR by Tuesday’s sunrise, and early-morning commuters may even run into a patch or two of light fog (but not enough to be an issue for the drive-to-work).
We’re going with 30% to 40% rain chances for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. These will be the mainly-afternoon variety of showers and storms -- fairly typical August stuff. We’re still expecting some neighborhoods to reach the mid 90°s over the next couple of days, but we shouldn't have to deal with upper 90°s any time soon. In addition, it looks like we won’t be dealing with dew points in the upper 70°s to near 80° this week, which means slightly lower morning minimums and slightly less-oppressive afternoon heat. But don’t be fooled into thinking we’re in for a week of summer relief: it is August.
In fact, we’ll keep rain chances in the 30% to 40% range right through the weekend, with lows in the low to mid 70°s and highs in the low 90°s for the weekend as well.
In the tropics, Florence has all but collapsed over the last 24 hours. Shearing winds, dry air and a generally unsupportive environment has reduced Florence to a “post-tropical remnant low” according to the National Hurricane center (NHC), which implies a low that has lost the thunderstorm structure to be deemed a tropical cyclone. Although we may watch the remnants over the coming days, any re-development appears highly unlikely.
By contrast, after a prolonged run of fairly steady winds and pressure, T.S. Ernesto displayed some notable strengthening earlier today, but that intensification has leveled off this afternoon. Still the environment around Ernesto looks supportive for additional development and the latest projections from the NHC call for Ernesto to become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours. In response to the apparent and forecasted intensification, as well as evidence of a jog to the west or NW today, the computer forecast guidance appears to be collectively easing a tad northward. Even so, Ernesto will likely make landfall near the Belize/Mexico border in the western Caribbean, then spend the better part of a day over land before emerging in the Bay of Campeche.
Admittedly, a northern shift will mean more time over the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche, allowing for some re-intensification. But for the time being, a continued motion to the west or WNW is expected after entering the Gulf, which means no threat to U.S. interests.
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