Heat and humidity today prompted the NWS to post yet another “Heat Advisory” for the majority of the WAFB viewing area ... the Advisory will be allowed to expire at 7PM, but it will still be uncomfortably warm well into the late evening.
Most of us just suffered through a hot-and-humid afternoon, but Titan9 Doppler did show a few t-storms developing in the viewing area, including two that became “severe” - - one over northern Terrebonne Parish and another extending over portions of Livingston and Ascension Parishes. Today’s pockets of storms serve as a great reminder that even during relatively quiet weather days, isolated strong-to-severe storms can bubble-up almost any time during a summer afternoon thanks to the proximity of moist and unstable Gulf air.
The upper-air “Heat Ridge” centered over the Southern Plains that has been the driver for the excessive heat and series of advisories continues to contract and shift slightly westward, taking the “cap” off of our atmosphere. We’ve seen the effects of the slow weakening of this “cap” with spotty t-showers on Thursday, isolated showers and t-storms today ... and our forecast calls for better rain chances for Saturday and Sunday as the ridge becomes less of a factor for the lower Mississippi Valley.
We’re thinking a 20% to 30% coverage for Saturday rains and a 30% to 40% rain chance for your neighborhood on Sunday. Even with the scattered rains, we still expect highs to climb into the 90°s on both days, with a few areas possibly reaching mid 90°s on Saturday. At the same time, the low-level Gulf moisture remains in place, keeping dew points in the 70°s with morning sunrise temps in the upper 70°s.
Keep scattered mainly-afternoon showers and t-storms in the forecast through the first few days of the upcoming work week as well.
All of a sudden, we’ve gone from one to three areas of interest in the tropics! T.S. Ernesto continues to march across the eastern Caribbean and is still maintaining a quick-step forward speed of 20-22 mph. After some brief weakening earlier in today, Ernesto has regained peak winds of 50 mph. The NHC calls for very slow strengthening over the weekend, with Ernesto potentially becoming a hurricane in the next two to three days. Ernesto’s forecast track has undergone only minor tweaks during the last 24 hours, and as of right now it looks like Ernesto will reach the southern Gulf sometime around the middle of next week.
A new area of interest has developed over the Bahamas today. Labeled “Invest 91L” by the NHC, this disturbance remains poorly defined. Very preliminary computer guidance suggests the 91L likely tracks to the NW or NNW towards Florida or possibly Georgia in the coming days. We’re awaiting more model runs and updates, but for the time being we are not overly concerned about this system.
And lastly, a very healthy looking tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic (near the Cape Verde Islands) may be the precursor for our next ‘named’ system. Although it offers no threat to land any time soon, it does send us a reminder that we are moving into the peak of the hurricane season.
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