We’ve already seen some impressive rain totals over SW Mississippi, where radar estimates and station reports are suggesting widespread 3” to 5” totals through Monday afternoon with pockets above 6” -- and that is with more rain to come over the next 24 to 36 hours!
Thankfully the rain totals have been much lower over most of the WAFB viewing area, but the current guidance says we could still see another 1” to 3” before it all ends late Tuesday. Those big rains in Mississippi have prompted the NWS to post River Flood Warnings for the entire Amite River and for the lower Tangipahoa. Don’t be surprised to see additional River Warnings issued between now and Tuesday afternoon -- depending, of course, on how much rain materializes and where the heavier rains fall.
Rains continue overnight with a few t-storms, and showers and t-storms are likely throughout the better part of the day on Tuesday -- changing Mardi Gras into Soggy Gras! We can hope for a few breaks in Tuesday’s rains to sneak in some parades, but don’t count on it.
The quasi-stationary front currently lined-up along the Louisiana coast will begin to retreat northward as a warm front tonight and tomorrow. At the same time, a surface low will develop along that front to our southwest. That low is expected to track into the southern parishes during the day and move through the WAFB area during the late afternoon or evening. The low will likely add to the potential for afternoon thunderstorms over our region before the entire storm complex moves out of our area and to the east-northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Rains will taper off from west-to-east through Wednesday morning, but skies will be slow to clear through the day. Still we can say “goodbye” to stormy weather from Wednesday through the weekend.
While the weather through the weekend should be mostly dry, it won’t be entirely uneventful. A “dry” cold front will push through the region on Friday, bringing a shot of Arctic air in its wake. Our forecast has temps dropping to near freezing along the I-10/12 for Sunday’s sunrise -- Mother Nature’s way of reminding us that it is still winter!
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