We began Wednesday with dense fog for many WAFB neighborhoods while watching a storm system to our west get better organized through the day. Some communities did get a few peaks of sunshine during the middle of the day but the clouds have closed back in and we’ve already had passing showers in the viewing area this afternoon.
As of 5:00pm, a look at Titan9 Doppler also shows that either the rains are already at your back door or will be there very shortly. A well-developed disturbance is tracking east-northeast from the northwestern Gulf waters -- that trajectory will bring the heart of the system into the south-central and southeastern coastal parishes this evening.
There is no concern for a severe weather outbreak, but current Doppler trends and lightning detection are indicating some strong t-storms over the coastal waters. Given the storm’s forecasted path, we could see some stronger t-storms develop over the southern parishes overnight tonight. In addition, this system’s rain “shield” is large enough that it may well produce rains of 1” or more for much of the viewing area -- a couple of locations may even top the 2” mark before the rains end on Thursday.
It looks like we’ll still have showers in the viewing area for Thursday’s sunrise, but the heavier rains should have moved off to the east before the WAFB-area morning drive kicks-in. Wet streets may also go hand-in-hand with some areas of rather dense fog for Thursday’s AM commute, so you may want to allow a little extra time for the routine morning drill.
The rains end in the morning with sunshine breaking out by mid-day. Thursday afternoon’s dry-out will come with highs in the mid 70°s for the ‘Red Stick’ -- a nice end to the day.
A reinforcing cool front -- with no rain -- will push through the lower Mississippi Valley early Friday, leaving us with mild and dry weather for Friday afternoon and Saturday. All looks good for Friday evening’s Southdowns Parade ... and we should enjoy fair to partly-cloudy skies with highs around 70° for downtown Baton Rouge as Spanish Town rolls on Saturday.
Unfortunately, the Mardi Gras forecast starts turning messy after that. We’re going with scattered showers and t-storms during the latter half of Sunday with rain likely on Monday as our next weather system heads towards us from the Plains. What’s more, the forecast remains “wet” for Mardi Gras (Tuesday) as well.
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