Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Wednesday Afternoon Tropical Update

I just wanted to give you a quick update after taking a look at some of the latest info coming in this afternoon.  We still have considerable uncertainty with the future track and intensity of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf, but there's increasing confidence that low pressure will develop south of the Louisiana coastline by Friday or Saturday.  There's also increasing confidence that whatever develops will be slow-moving or nearly stationary over the weekend and possibly into the first part of next week.  This points to significant heavy rain and coastal flooding threats if it pans out.  However, the areas that will be most under the gun are yet to be determined.

I've circled the area in the southeastern Gulf where there at least appears to be some weak rotation this afternoon.  The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon and should give us a better idea of its status.  Conditions still aren't terribly favorable for development over the central and northern Gulf with strong westerly winds at the upper-levels inducing some shear, but that shear is expected to let up by Friday.

The National Hurricane Center officially classified the disturbance as an 'invest' earlier this afternoon.  Most importantly, that means we'll begin to see runs of the tropical models.  We already saw the first few this afternoon, but we should have a full suite to look at later tonight.  Check back on for the latest models...we've added those and a few other tropical graphics to our site.

Bottom line...I'm becoming increasingly concerned about the threat for heavy rain and coastal flooding for some part of the Louisiana coastline by the weekend.  The intensity and long-term track still remain highly uncertain.  Stay with us folks...we'll keep you updated.

No comments:

Post a Comment