Friday, February 28, 2014

Warmer This Weekend!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- mild Friday evening, patchy fog and 50°s for Saturday's sun-up
- 70°s for Saturday & Sunday afternoons, "dry" Saturday and "mostly dry" Sunday
- "wet" for Lundi Gras morning, "mostly dry" for Mardi Gras day
It did get a little colder than expected this morning, with the thermometer dipping to freezing at Baton Rouge's Metro Airport this morning under mainly clear skies.  But the sunshine warmed things quickly, with temps in the low 60°s by the lunch hour for the Capital City and climbing into the mid to upper 60°s for many of us by the mid to late afternoon.
The winds are now off the Gulf and that means warmer temperatures and a bit more moisture in the air for the weekend.  That combination translated into a slow increase in cloud cover through the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies on the way this evening.  But it stays dry and comfortable this evening for the 7:00pm kick-off of the Krewe of Southdowns parade -- temperatures cooperate with low 60°s for the most parade, possibly dipping into the upper 50°s by parade's end.

Warmer Weekend

The warming trend also means a much milder start to Saturday, with sunrise temps in the mid 50°s for the Red Stick under mostly cloudy skies.  At the same time, expect a little patchy morning fog thanks to the added Gulf moisture.  But Saturday's mild start leads into a spring-like day with highs in the low to mid 70°s under an afternoon sun/cloud mix.  So it looks great for the lively and irreverent Spanish Town Parade.  Spanish Town starts at noon, with temps in the 70°s throughout the entire parade window.
Sunday is also looking good for the most part.  We'll be watching a storm system moving through the U.S. Plains -- the same system that is producing storm-related headaches in California today. The core of the storm stays well to our north, but it will swing a cold front through the lower Mississippi Valley late Sunday and early Monday.
With the front approaching from the northwest, we should expect a breezy day for Sunday with highs in the mid 70°s and low-level moisture on a steady increase.  Given the warm and moist Gulf air in place, we can't rule out a shower or two late Sunday afternoon and evening … but our guidance currently indicates that the main frontal weather arrives during the overnight hours and into the early hours of Lundi Gras (Monday).
The NWS Storm Prediction Center already sees enough stormy weather potential with Monday’s front to put the viewing area under a “SLIGHT RISK” classification.  We’ll track this threat closely in the coming days to assess the most likely severe-weather components expected for our region.

Extended Outlook - Mardi Gras

The front should move through the area reasonably quickly, with rains subsiding before noon on Monday.  You can expect a mostly dry Monday afternoon, but be aware that behind Monday's front the air turns much cooler compared to our weekend in the 70°s.  It will be a cool 'Fat Tuesday' also under a sun/cloud mix with highs on Tuesday in the 50°s.  While Tuesday should stay mainly dry into the afternoon, there is a slight chance of rain in the late afternoon and evening as the next disturbance approaches from the west.
Here’s hoping that you get to enjoy some of the final days of the Carnival Season!

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Looking Good for the Parades!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Brief Update on Rivers

A quick comment on area rivers:  even with the 1" to 3" of rain during Feb 25-26, none of the local rivers across the Florida Parishes (in our viewing area) returned to 'flood.'  Several sites saw slight rises in response to the rains and the rates of 'fall' at all gauging sites have slowed (temporarily) ... but all-in-all it looks like the rains on Tuesday and Wednesday had little significant impact for those concerned about seasonal flooding.

Cold This Morning, Again Friday AM

As for the today, just as promised, it was clearing skies for the early morning with a light freeze for just about everyone living near or north of the I-10/12 corridor.  Morning sunshine had temperatures rising nicely with readings in the upper 40°s to lower 50°s by lunchtime.

Parade Weather

Viewers to the north and east of the Red Stick can expect another brief, light freeze for Friday morning under fair skies.  It gets noticeably warmer for Friday afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 60°s for the Capital City.  Parade goers and participants for the Krewe of Southdowns on Friday evening will not be too disappointed - - although clouds will be increasing, there’ll be no rain for the parade as the Flambeaus take to the streets with parade temperatures in the low 60°s.
We'll start Saturday with a little patchy fog in places and temps in the 50°s at sunrise.  Saturday looks like a day with a sun/cloud mix but it also stays dry, with afternoon readings climbing into the 70°s -- just about perfect for the lively Spanish Town Parade!

Sunday into Mardi Gras

Sunday starts with morning lows in the upper 50°s to low 60°s around the viewing area, again with some patchy fog.  Afternoon temps will return to the 70°s for more of that springtime feel, but it will be a tad more humid during the afternoon.  A cold front will be approaching south Louisiana from the north and northwest on Sunday, bringing in more Gulf moisture on the winds ahead of the front.  With the daytime warming, we can expect isolated to scattered showers to develop on Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.
For now, the NWS has the cold front passing through the Baton Rouge metro area during the pre-dawn hours Monday, with showers and t-storms likely during the overnight and early morning.  It's still a little too early to fully evaluate the severe weather threat with the coming cold front: we'll keep an eye on that.
But the really good news is that most -- if not all -- of the rain gets out of the way during Monday morning, leaving a "mostly dry" Lundi Gras afternoon and a cool-but-dry forecast for 'Fat Tuesday.'

Sunday, February 23, 2014

A Wild Weather Sunday

Sunday started off with some severe weather rolling through Iberville and Ascension Parishes.  A Severe T-Storm Warning was issued by the National Weather Service around 5:30 AM Sunday morning as a storm dropped hail and brought damaging winds to the area.

Picture from Facebook page post earlier today.
Notice the pink shade in the radar reflectivity in the above image.  Radar returns will run "hot" so to speak when the beam hits frozen precipitation.  Often times a hail pocket is represented by brighter colors on traditional radar.  Titan 9 Radar can see inside the storm and began seeing some very large estimated hail sizes.

The Titan 9 hail size detection was estimating golf ball sized hail moving through north Ascension Parish.  Here are some viewer submitted pictures of hail in the area:

Half Dollar sized hail in Dutchtown (photo courtesy: Angela Eiseman)
Various shaped hailstones in Dutchtown (photo courtesy: Robin McDonald)
1 1/2" Hail (photos courtesy: Melissa Landry)
But we are not out of the woods just yet in terms of t-storms today.  Another cluster of t-storms will be impacting metro Baton Rouge around 10-11 AM.

This cluster of storms will once again contain some possible hail and very heavy rain at times.  The good news is that after this next pass of storms things should begin to wind down as we move into the afternoon hours.  A few sct'd rain showers can't be ruled out, but the stronger storm threat will end.

The area remains under a Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM today.  The threat for more heavy rain doesn't really help much in terms of area rivers.  Many are already high from rains late Friday.

The Comite River at Joor Road is currently 7 feet below flood stage.  After the next round of heavy rain passes we should see another spike back up towards the 20 foot level flood stage.  At this time we feel the Comite will stay below flood stage even with additional rain from today.

The Amite at Denham Springs may be a different story.  The river is already 1 foot above flood stage at 30.1 feet.  The river is still expected to rise another foot before cresting around 31 feet.  The additional rain today will keep the Amite River above flood stage for at least a few days.  Areas down river near Bayou Manchac Point will have to watch as the river looks to maybe reach flood stage there.  Other areas near Port Vincent, French Settlement, and Maurepas look to be okay as of now.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Mild and Dry Saturday, Rainy Sunday

Let's get the important part of the forecast out of the way first.  Those Mardi Gras parades today in Baton Rouge!

The weather will be very nice today with a sun/cloud mix and very mild afternoon temperatures.  Afternoon highs will reach the low 70°s right as the Krewe of Mystique rolls in downtown.  Orion rolls later on in the evening and the weather will remain dry, but you might need the light jacket or sweatshirt as the parade ends as temperatures dip into the upper 50°s.

Saturday's weather will be a great start to the weekend.  Unfortunately it doesn't stay that way to end the weekend.

Sunday will see it's fair share of rain.  AM t-showers will be likely as a warm front moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico into Southeast Louisiana.  During the day we'll continue with off & on sct'd to numerous rain showers.  Thanks to the passed warm front, even with the clouds and rain we should see highs in the mid 70°s.

A weak cold front moves by late Sunday bringing slightly cooler air back into the area.  Morning lows wills stay pretty stagnant in the mid 50°s to start the next work week.  The cold front stalls along coast, so we'll need to keep a mention of rain in the forecast Monday, but most should stay dry.  On Tuesday an upper air disturbance will travel along this stalled front triggering sct'd to numerous showers and t-storms.  A trough will then move into the area on Wednesday bringing back the feel of winter.  Morning lows and daytime highs will be about 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, February 21, 2014

Nice Saturday, Rains Return Sunday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Recap of Last Night's Storms

The stormy weather moved through last night as expected and while the event was far from impact-free, most of the WAFB viewing area dodged serious weather-related impacts. However, the area was far from storm-free. Through the course of the night, Tornado Warnings were posted for seven of WAFB's parishes and Mississippi counties and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings covered 8 parishes and counties. And the NWS has confirmed at least one tornado-touchdown in south Louisiana: an EF-1 tornado at approximately 8:33pm in Evangeline Parish, damaging several homes and utility buildings there.

In the end, it looks like locally-heavy rain was the most problematic issue with the storms for WAFB’s communities. While there were undoubtedly some wind-related effects across the region, none were officially reported for our viewing area. However, preliminary radar estimates show an area of 4" to 5" (or more!) storm totals extending over a swath from northeastern East Feliciana and northern St. Helena parishes into Amite, Pike and Walthall counties. The parishes and counties bordering the state line were under a Flood Advisory for a number of hours as those rains undoubtedly created some standing water problems and small stream overbanking.

In fact, both the upper Tangipahoa and upper Tickfaw rivers rose above flood stage in response to the heavy rains, and the latest forecast for the Amite at Denham Springs calls for that site to potentially just reach the 29-foot flood stage late Saturday night. Fortunately, downstream flooding does not appear to be much of a concern along the Florida Parish rivers since (1) most of those rivers were at levels that had them ready to accept the rapid run-off and (2) rain totals dropped off markedly as you go south from the state line.

Weekend / Parade Weather

So here we are with a fine Friday – cooler than recent days, but closer to the seasonal norm for this time of year. It was a little breezy at times, but few can complain about the blue skies and sunshine. The ladies of the Krewe of Artemis have dialed up a great one for their parade tonight: it will be comfortably cool at parade time with temperatures in the 50°s with light winds and clear skies.

Saturday? Looks mighty fine with highs in the 70°s for Mystique's mid-afternoon parade. Clouds will increase into the evening for the Krewe of Orion, but it should remain mainly-dry for their evening parade with temperatures in the 60°s.

Scattered showers are back in the forecast for Sunday ... but they tell us that the family-friendly Firemen's Parade in Addis on Sunday afternoon is still a go come rain or shine. Sunday's high climbs into the mid to upper 70°s, so just bring your bead-catching umbrella to that small-town parade in West Baton Rouge.

Extended Outlook

We're going with a few showers for Monday then bring scattered rains back into the forecast for Tuesday. Rain appears likely for Wednesday. The airs turn cooler for Wednesday and then much cooler for Thursday -- we may even flirt with a morning freeze later in the work week, with afternoon highs for the second half of the work week topping-out in the 50°s!

In the meantime, enjoy the weekend weather!

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

A Few Strong Storms Late Thursday?

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Wednesday began with a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire viewing area as moist Gulf air rode inland along the southerly winds and then chilled to "saturation" due to cooler land and water surfaces.  Fortunately, the winds stayed up just a bit for many parts of south Louisiana through the night, limiting the extent and durations of some of the fog.  Still, some areas saw visibilities drop to under a mile for the morning drive.
Sunshine warmed us once again into the upper 70°s with a few neighborhoods reaching the 80° mark -- continuing our pleasant run of spring-like weather.   We enjoyed fewer clouds through the day today than yesterday, allowing the warm-up to get started a little sooner today compared to Tuesday morning.
Fog returns again tonight, although it looks like the winds through the night and into Thursday morning will be sufficient to limit the potential for another widespread outbreak of dense fog.  Still, those living or driving through fog-prone areas need to be wary for the Thursday morning drive.

Cold Front Approaches Thursday

It gets rather windy by Thursday afternoon with temps climbing into the 80°s for many WAFB communities while we await the arrival of our next cold front.  Our current guidance has the first rains arriving during the late afternoon and early evening, with the cold front arrives in the Baton Rouge metro area very late Thursday evening or very early Friday morning.

Severe Weather Threat?

The main issue with Thursday’s weather will be the potential squall line developing ahead of the front.  The latest assessment from the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include all of WAFB SW Mississippi viewers and the Louisiana parishes near and along the LA/MS state line under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather.  If severe weather does develop, the main threat will be from damaging thunderstorm winds, although isolated tornadoes and large hail cannot be ruled out especially for those living to the north of the state line.  Projections from the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) show rains of up to an inch or more for the northern half of the viewing area, with totals on the order of 0.5" to 1.0" closer to the coast.

The active weather exits the region well before dawn on Friday morning with the skies clearing by or before the afternoon.  The “Pacific” air mass behind the front will mean cooler and less humid conditions for Friday into Saturday, but not cold.  Plan on highs for Friday in the mid to upper 60°s.

Extended Outlook

In the extended outlook, Saturday shapes up to be a nice day, with a cool start in the low 40°s and a high up around 70° or so under partly cloudy skies.  We bring rain back into the forecast for Sunday, then clear things out again for Monday.  Scattered rains return for Tuesday before a cooler air mass sweeps the region clear for Wednesday.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Fog Wednesday AM, Storms Possible Later This Week

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta
We started the day off with dense fog across much of the viewing area, prompting NWS Dense Fog Advisories to the east, south and west of the Capital City.  Advisories remained in effect over the tidal lakes and coastal waters until noon today, reflecting the extent of the fog especially near and along water bodies.
The front we described over the Bayou State last night stalled to our north and remained there through the morning, essentially fizzling out over the state during the afternoon.  With the WAFB area remaining on the south side ("warm" side) of the front, we stayed warm for this time of year, with Red Stick lows in the 60°s.  At the same time, low-level Gulf moisture kept the air "juicy" for fog development.
As Steve noted, last night's fog was mainly an "advection fog."  As the name implies, an advection fog (advection: horizontal movement) is typically formed when southerly winds move relatively warm-and-moist Gulf air across the cooler land and water bodies.  The cooler surfaces underlying the moving Gulf air cools the moist air, bringing the air temperature down until it is equal to the dew point temperature.  At that point, the air is "saturated" and microscopic water droplets begin to condense -- the onset of fog.

More Fog, Warm Again on Wednesday

Low clouds were rather persistent through the day as well and that slowed the morning warm-up.  After a morning start in the low 60°s for most WAFB neighborhoods, the ‘heavy’ clouds delayed the normal sun-driven warm-up.  Still, every WAFB community made it into the 70°s for the afternoon with a few sites making the upper 70°s.  And while the clouds were with us throughout the day, little if any rain fell over the WAFB viewing area.
Make plans for a repeat on Wednesday.
We'll begin the day with another round of dense morning fog.  In fact, the NWS has already issued an area-wide Dense Fog Advisory, which currently runs until 10AM on Wednesday.  And much like today, morning lows will run from the upper 50°s to low 60°s across the viewing area, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 70°s.  Also like today, clouds will dominate Wednesday's skies.  We can't rule out a spotty shower or two given the moist Gulf air still in place but showers will be spotty at best.  And it will likely be occasionally a bit breezy for Wednesday afternoon.
Be ready for another round of fog on Thursday morning with highs again headed into the upper 70°s.  However, changes come on Thursday as we head into the latter half of the day.  A vigorous cold front will be approaching from the west with its center of low pressure moving through the U.S. Plains.

T-Storms Possible Late Week

An updated assessment for Thursday’s approaching front by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now puts the SW Mississippi counties and the WAFB parishes along the LA/MS state line under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather from Thursday into early Friday.  The main threat at this time appears to be damaging winds, although isolated tornadoes and large hail cannot be ruled out.  However, the real action will most likely stay farther to the north.
At the same time, the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is calling for 1.0" to 1.5" of rain across a good portion of the WAFB viewing area in response to the likelihood for active thunderstorms.  We'll be keeping a close watch on this scenario as Thursday draws nearer.
Just about all of the stormy weather should exit the viewing area before Friday’s sunrise and everything settles down and the skies should be clearing by/before Friday afternoon.  A cooler air mass moves in behind the Thursday/Friday front keeping highs in the 60°s across the viewing area for Friday and the weekend.

Extended Outlook

The weekend forecast still remains a little "cloudy" and unclear.  The latest runs of the operational American 'GFS' and the European 'ECMWF' models suggest a mainly-dry weekend ahead, whereas some of our other guidance suggests a decent rain chance for Sunday.  We should get a better bead on the weekend details in the coming days.

Monday, February 17, 2014

Areas of Fog Next Couple of Mornings

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

It was a Presidents Day under the clouds, but all-in-all it was quite comfortable with sunrise temps in the 50°s and afternoon readings in the mid to upper 70°s. In fact, today's high of 78° in Baton Rouge was the warmest in nearly 2 months -- just below the 80° we recorded on Dec. 20 & 21, 2013.

Everyone stayed dry today and while the forecast includes a slight chance of rain over the next couple of days, many of us can expect near-repeats for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The one difference over the coming days will be better chances of fog for the morning commute.
Yes, the 70°s are here for at least the next three days - - a welcomed reprieve from the recent cold weather.  In fact, we expect temperatures to remain relatively mild right through the upcoming weekend.  All indications are that the Polar jet stream will remain to our north through the week, allowing for the mild-to-warm temperatures throughout the South.
A weak cool front will slip into the WAFB viewing area later this evening and linger as a quasi-stationary front over the lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday before dissipating.  A second cool front heads our way on Wednesday, but also looks like it will essentially fizzle out during or even before its arrival.  Since neither front is expected to generate much lift, we expect little more than just a few showers in the viewing area over the next two days -- we’re setting rain chances at 20% or less for both days. 
Our guidance shows a more energetic front arriving during the latter half of Thursday into early Friday.  Preliminary guidance from the NWS Storm Prediction Center (NWS/SPC) shows a potential for severe weather with Thursday’s front, but keeps the threat well to our north.  At the same time, the NWS Weather Prediction Center (NWS/WPC) suggests that the late-week front could produce one-inch or more of rain over the WAFB viewing area as it passes by.  We'll watch as the scenario comes into better focus through the week.
Our forecast confidence is rather low for now as we look into the coming weekend.  Some of the guidance suggests that the Thursday/Friday front will stall and possibly retreat northward as a warm front into the weekend, making it difficult to define rain probabilities.  Our key models are also differing on the weekend solution.
We’ll have to watch and wait on the developments in the coming week.  For now, we’ll go with 20% to 30% rain chances for both weekend days, with a sweeping front clearing everything out on Monday.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Beautiful Sunday, and Warm Work Week Ahead

Sunday will be a very nice weather day.  High pressure will remain the dominant weather controller.  The high sits to our east and is pumping warm, moist southerly flow into South Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi.  Skies will start to fill with some cloud cover, but we stay dry.  Highs will top out in the low 70°s across the entire WAFB viewing area.

This means that the weather for the Mystic Krewe of Mutts parade in downtown Baton Rouge later today will be very nice.  Festivities begin at 10 AM at Galvez Plaza.

The parade trots (dogs trot right?) down North Boulevard at 1:30 PM.  Temperatures will be right at or around 70° at that time.

As we roll into the work week we are expecting to see some fog.

The persistent southerly flow will shore up moisture at the surface.  As the air temperature reaches the dewpoint that moisture will condense creating the fog.  It should remain fairly patchy in nature for most spots, but a some areas mainly south of Baton Rouge could see some areas of dense fog.  This fog potential will be around for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings too.

Rain chances will remain fairly slim for most of the work week.  While we won't be able to say things will remain completely dry, we can't rule out a spotty or iso'd shower Monday through Thursday.  But most will stay dry throughout.  Check out those high temperatures though.  We see mid 70°s each afternoon and morning starts will also be substantially warmer in the 50°s and 60°s.

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Weekend Forecast Looking Nice

Today's forecast will be dominated by high pressure.  This will result in lots of clear blue skies today.  Thanks to a passed cold front, temperatures this afternoon will remain somewhat cool.

Highs will stay in the low 60°s during the afternoon hours.  Expect the temperature to begin falling during the evening after the sun sets.  That means you might need a light jacket or sweater if you are heading out to the Mardi Gras parade in Baton Rouge tonight.

The Krewe of Jupitor & Juno rolls through downtown Baton Rouge at 6:30 PM tonight.  The first parade of 2014 will have dry weather with clear skies.  Expect mid 50°s as the parade begins to roll.

On Sunday we might see a patch or two of fog.  I'm really not expecting fog to be much of an issue though.  The morning start Sunday will be chilly with lows in the low 40°s.  High pressure shifts east of the area allowing for temperatures to turn warmer by afternoon.

Moisture will also begin to return thanks to southerly winds.  This will put some cloud cover in the forecast but we stay dry.  Highs look to reach the low 70°s.

Sunday is for the dogs here in Baton Rouge.  The Mystic Krewe of Mutts (the dog parade) rolls down North Blvd. in downtown Sunday afternoon at 1:30 PM.  Events start at 10 AM though so the family fun lasts most of the day.  Conditions will be very nice as temperatures will stay in the 60°s and 70°s for the entire event.

Friday, February 14, 2014

Good-Looking Weekend!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Happy Valentine’s Day!

Yet again, Mother Nature throws us a curve ball! The winds failed to come around from the southwest last night as expected -- with near-calm conditions for most of the night and clear skies, temperatures dropped as much as 5° to 6° lower than we had anticipated. As a result, instead of a light freeze for just a few of the northernmost WAFB viewers, the 'freeze line' reached as far south as the coastal parishes in some cases!

We started this morning under mainly-clear skies, but the clouds started to return well before lunchtime, reducing the day's sunshine and slowing the afternoon warm-up. Still, much of the viewing area made it into the mid to upper 60°s for the afternoon. 

A weak cold front is headed our way and will move from northwest-to-southeast across the viewing area this evening. The latest runs of some of our key computer guidance are still struggling with the potential for a few showers as the front moved through. We think that a few WAFB neighborhoods will get a light passing shower but little or no accumulations.

Skies should be clearing later tonight giving way to a sunny sunrise for Saturday with the cold front well to our south. Given the recent trends in morning lows, we'll call for one more morning down in the 30°s for the Red Stick. The air behind tonight's front will be a cool Canadian air mass, but not “Arctic” cold like we’ve endured recently. Sunny skies through the day on Saturday should promote some warming to counter the Canadian chill, but highs will struggle to get into the 60°s during the afternoon for many of us.

For those planning on attending the Krewe of Jupiter and Juno Parade on Saturday evening, skies will remain clear but dress for the 50°s. In fact, it will be down around 50° by 9PM.

Sunday looks just fine for the Mystic Krewe of Mutts in downtown BR. After a sunrise temperature close to 40°, the day warms nicely with afternoon highs still expected to reach the 70°s under fair skies.

And here’s some good news: the upcoming work week forecast calls for more 70°s across the region. Monday stays mainly-dry and we’ll go with a 20% to 30% rain chance for Tuesday as the next front moves through. Better chances for rain return during the latter half of Thursday into Friday.

Enjoy the weekend weather!

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Warmer into the Weekend!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

The clouds were slower to exit than we had hoped and that meant a cloudy start to the day for many. But the sun finally came out and temps started climbing nicely by mid-day, with just about everyone in the 50°s under fair skies for the afternoon.

Tonight - Friday

We've got another cold night on the way under fair to partly cloudy skies as most WAFB neighborhoods head back down into the 30°s by Friday's sunrise. However, the big difference between this morning and Friday morning will be that just about everyone in the viewing area stays above freezing. It's possible that a few of our northernmost viewers might just dip to around freezing near sun-up, but if it does happen it won't last long at all. And tomorrow will be much warmer across the region, with highs for just about everyone reaching the upper 60°s to near 70° for Friday afternoon.

Expect a return of clouds by Friday evening as our next cold front rapidly approaches from the north. Our models are still hinting at the potential for a passing shower or two in the region late Friday evening as the front moves through. However, the majority of us stay dry and whatever does fall should be brief and won't amount to much.

Weekend / Parade Forecasts

We expect the cold front to move through during the overnight hours with the front draped across the northern Gulf by Saturday's sunrise. While the front will do little in the way of rainfall, it will be followed by a dose of cooler Canadian air. After a Saturday morning low in the 40°s, we think Saturday will top-out in the low to mid 60°s for most WAFB communities under mainly sunny skies.

For those headed to the Krewe of Jupiter & Juno parade on Saturday evening, the weather cooperates for the most part -- just be prepared for parade-time temps in the 50°s.

Sunday looks like it should be a spring-like beauty: after a morning start in the low to mid 40°s we expect fair skies throughout the day with afternoon temperatures reaching the 70°s for many WAFB neighborhoods. That means a great day for downtown BR's Mystic Krewe of Mutts activities, which runs from late morning until late afternoon (with the official parade at 1:30pm) on North Boulevard.

Monday should be a partly to mostly cloudy day, again mainly-dry, with highs getting into the low to mid 70°s for most WAFB communities.

Extended Outlook

Based on the extended outlook, our next cold front is scheduled to arrive Tuesday. We'll call for limited rain chances as the front slides by -- on the order of 30% or so. For the time being at least, we're not expecting much of a temperature change with Tuesday's front; most of us can expect highs for Tuesday afternoon in the 70°s. Our forecast remains mainly-dry for next Wednesday and isolated showers for Thursday with highs again in the 70°s on both days.