Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Rains Ending Tonight, Cooler on Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Fog, Storms Today

It was another “up” day on the temperature roller coaster, although most of us did not make the 70°s that we were expecting.  The warm front that we anticipated to take many of us into the 70°s for the afternoon never made the northward progress that we had expected. Even at lunch time it was still draped along the coast.  Add in the fog and thick cloud deck overhead and we stayed in the 40°s and 50°s much longer into the day than we had forecast.
As of 5:30PM, a thunderstorm cluster was moving through the Baton Rouge metro area from SW to NE.  There were no signs of severe weather associated with the storms, but the lightning was rather active as the cluster slid through.
The line of frontal rains was still to the west, but was advancing steadily on the Capital City.  At its current rate, the rains will be just about over for Baton Rouge by or before midnight.  The cold front will continue its march to the east through the night, exiting into the northern Gulf before sunrise and taking the rain with it.

Clearing, Cooler Wednesday

It will be a dry but chilly start to Wednesday with sunrise temps in the 40°s.  Clearing skies during the morning will allow sunshine to help get most of us into the mid to upper 50°s for the afternoon. 

Chilly Thursday & Friday

Then it’s back to winter, with a light freeze for many WAFB communities for Thursday’s wake-up.  Thursday stays mainly-dry but quite cool through the day the way it looks now; we’ll allow for isolated showers on Thursday as the clouds return with highs only getting into the 40°s. 
We’ll post a 20% to 30% rain chance for Thursday -- and for those wondering, we don’t anticipate any real winter precipitation.
Plan on another freeze for Friday morning, with Friday afternoon temps a few degrees warmer than what comes on Thursday.  We’ll keep isolated showers in the Friday forecast too, but today’s update is not as ‘wet’ as we were thinking yesterday -- set Friday rain chances at about 20%.

Weekend - Early Next Week

And the weekend?   We’ll carry pretty decent rain chances -- around 40% to 50% -- in the Saturday forecast as our next system slides by, with slight rain chances early on Sunday, then partly cloudy for Sunday afternoon.  Plan on a cold start to Saturday, with morning lows in the 30°s, but most miss-out on a freeze.  We’ll go with highs around 60° or so for Saturday.
Sunday’s start is a little milder, likely the low 40°s, but a the Canadian air mass that moves into the lower Mississippi Valley following Saturday’s rains will mean Sunday highs in the 50°s for most of us.
Then, yep, another freeze possible for Monday morning.

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