Sunday, February 9, 2014

Rainy Start to the Work Week

A lot of rain is in the forecast for the first half of this upcoming work week.  But the first weather concern will be the development of fog overnight into Monday morning.

The National Weather Service may have to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the Monday morning commute if visibilities drop below 1 mile over a widespread area.  We expect fog to remain patchy to the north of Baton Rouge with the thickest fog occurring down along the coast and near the tidal lakes.

As for rain early Monday morning should remain relatively dry with only a few iso'd to sct'd rain showers.  Rain coverage increases through the day with sct'd to numerous rain showers expected by the afternoon as a cold front slips past the area.  Expect temperatures to begin falling once the front passes which will occur shortly after 12 PM in the northern part of the WAFB viewing area and closer to 3 PM in metro Baton Rouge.  The front is expected to stall somewhere between Baton Rouge and the Gulf coast.

The weather Tuesday and Wednesday will be raw, cold, wet, winter days for sure.  Highs both days will only reach the mid 40°s.  Rain stays in the forecast as mid/upper level disturbances ride along the stalled front.

Timing these disturbances is rather tricky, so while we won't see continuous rainfall through the front part of the work week, expect to see decent coverages of showers off and on Late Monday through Wednesday morning.  Rainfall totals could cause some flooding problems.  The ground remains fairly saturated from previous rain events so most of the rain that falls will turn to run off.

A majority of weather model guidance continue to suggest average totals closer to 2" of rain from Monday through Wednesday.  As you see above our Titan 9 PrecisionCast model is indicating more widespread totals over 2".  For now the forecast will call for an average total of 2.25" with locally higher amounts possible approaching 3.50".  As mentioned before this rain will have a hard time being absorbed by the ground.  Expect a possible Flash Flood Watch to be issued by the National Weather Service is totals begin to look high starting Monday.  Flash Flood Warnings may be needed for some locations that see totals higher than 2" by Tuesday afternoon.

The threat for wintry precipitation this go around is pretty much 0%...but some freezing rain may sneak into far NW sections of our viewing area early Wednesday morning.  This would be for Avoyelles Parish and Wilkinson County and only would occur if the temperature does make it to 32°.  Any rain that falls during this time has the potential to freeze on contact.  Again this is only for extreme NW sections of the WAFB viewing area for Wednesday morning.  Snow and sleet will not occur as a large wedge of warm (above freezing) air will remain in place in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere just off the surface.

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