Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Another Tropical System in the Gulf?

Just as we say goodbye to Lee and begin to enjoy some beautiful weather in its wake, we take note that there could be another tropical system developing in the Gulf this week. If you caught any of our shows last night, we mentioned the area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf along a stalled front. Chances seem to be increasing that something will form here later this week. The National Hurricane Center is now giving it a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook from 7 a.m. on Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2011.

It seems quite possible that the NHC will deem this area an 'invest' at some point today, which would initialize a run of computer models that are specifically designed to handle tropical systems. The computer guidance that we already have access to shows quite a split, much like we saw in Lee's early development stages. There are scenarios showing the low going anywhere from Mexico to the Florida panhandle.

 Infrared satellite image from 7:45 this morning showing t-storm activity gathering in the southern Gulf along a stalled front.

Much of that spread seems to be a reflection of differences in timing for possible development of the system. Simply put, a quicker developing system would likely be pulled to the north or northeast late this week, while a slower developing system might be left to meander in the southern Gulf or head west towards Mexico. It is WAY too early to speculate on which of these scenarios might pan out. We just wanted to remind you that we're still in the heart of hurricane season even though we're enjoying a nice taste of fall this week.

Later today, we'll add a post from Chief Meteorologist Jay Grymes discussing just how active this season has been so far and why we shouldn't let our guard down in the coming weeks.

1 comment:

  1. o lawd.... just when u thot it was safe, lol