Friday, June 15, 2012

A Bit Drier Saturday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Scattered afternoon showers and t-storms have broken out over the WAFB region, with the most widespread action occurring over the southernmost parishes.  We’ll see these storms ease back by or before sunset with skies becoming mainly fair before midnight.
We’ve backed off on our earlier rain chances for Saturday, now going with only isolated afternoon rains, and set Father’s Day (Sunday) rain chances at a modest 30% -- both days should be good for most backyard BBQs.  And the sunrise temps for both Saturday and Sunday should be reasonably comfortable by June standards, running in the upper 60°s for many WAFB communities.  Highs both days will top out in the upper 80°s to around 90°, with some neighborhoods getting a cooling shower around the heat of the day.
You may recall that we were closely tracking two disturbances over the Southern U.S. the past couple of days -- one that was over our viewing area last night and the other over the Mobile-Pensacola strip of the Gulf Coast.
The disturbance that was essentially almost overhead yesterday as well as the weak trough/stationary front that had lingered over the Lower Mississippi Valley for a number of days have lost just about all of their definition and are no longer serious contributors to our weather. 
As for the disturbance to our east along the Gulf Coast, it looks like it has headed south into the NE Gulf and won’t be much of a weather factor for us over the weekend.  However, some of the guidance suggests that it will once again take on a westbound run in the next day or two and could work its way across the northern Gulf, possibly even earning some real attention early next week.

With the exception of that northeastern Gulf “spinner” that we’ll be watching (closely), our 7-day forecast is rather benign.  Unless that Gulf low becomes something more ominous, we’ll plan on 20% to 30% rain chances for just about every day next week, with lows in the low 70°s and highs around 90°.

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