Tropics getting very active!

How about the “drier,” less humid air? Well, we certainly deserve it, especially after some of the rains that many of you endured over the weekend!

Our current drop in humidity made it almost comfortable outside this afternoon ... we said, “almost!” And with dew points expected to stay in the 60°s for the next couple of days, we’ll get to enjoy some pretty nice mornings and tolerable afternoons -- by August standards -- into mid-week, at least.

The ‘cool’ front that we’ve been watching slowly -- and we do mean SLOWLY -- sag southward over the past four to five days looks like it will ease its way out into the coastal waters later tonight and into Tuesday morning. “Drier” continental air will remain in place over most or all of south Louisiana, delivering a much-appreciated break from our typical August heat-and-humidity.

So then the question becomes: how long before the humidity returns?

It looks like the front will stall tomorrow along or just south of the Louisiana coast, then begin a slow landward retreat on Wednesday. That should allow for at least two fairly decent days for most of the WAFB viewing area, with more typical Gulf humidity likely back in play for just about everyone by Thursday. Along with the humidity, we can expect a return for typical summer-season rain chances as well by week’s end.

Our locally quiet and favorable weather is quite the contrast to all the action happening in the tropics! We now have four areas of interest, including one in the western Gulf.

GORDON has been a bit of a surprise during his lifespan, reaching Category 2 intensity and hanging on to hurricane strength for 48 hours or more. Downgraded to a tropical storm this morning, GORDON continues marching east across the Atlantic, having made “landfall” and passed through the Azores earlier today. Forecast thinking for GORDON is that shearing winds and cooler waters will lead to ‘his’ fairly rapid demise, and GORDON could be declared as “post-tropical” as early as this evening or tonight and will likely dissipate in the next few days.

An area in the western Gulf of Mexico has been dubbed “Invest 95L” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is currently in the area and taking a closer look. While 95L appears to have some association with remnants from the weekend’s landfalling T.S. HELENE, the NHC designation indicates that it will be considered as a new and unique system should it become better organized.

95L has been showing some hints of a broad mid-level "spin" but it doesn’t look like that the spin extends to the surface. It's also dealing with wind shear, may be pulling-in some dry air, and appears linked to a non-tropical trough extending to the northeast across the Gulf. Whatever it is, 95L does not have the classic look of a healthy tropical system, at least not yet. And as of 4PM, we haven’t seen anything from the Hurricane Hunter that would suggest a “closed low” or an upgrade to TD #10. (If this system does become upgraded, it will get a new number and ultimately a new name and not be defined as a “comeback” by HELENE.)

There are two “Invests” in the tropical Atlantic: 94L and 96L. 94L is roughly 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is tracking essentially due west, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles in the next two days or so. A long-range consensus forecast takes 94L into the Greater Antilles by Friday and into the weekend. Although that is quite a ways down the road, we’ll be keeping a close tab on 94L as there is some potential that this could become a storm of concern for Gulf interests.

96L is located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and also appears to be on a westward course, riding along the ‘Tropical Easterlies’ behind 94L. But given its location, there is no need to be concerned about 96L for now.

Yes ... we are in the second half of August, the time of the Hurricane Season when action can really pick up. Are you ready should Louisiana come under a tropical threat? There is still time to get prepared!