Friday, October 5, 2012

Big Changes over the Weekend!

Our latest guidance has the weekend cold front moving through just a little bit faster than we thought yesterday. As it looks now, the front moves through metro Baton Rouge Saturday evening rather than Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

This is an impressive system, delivering the first real taste of serious winter-like weather to portions of the central and northern U.S. Winter weather advisories are in effect for several states, and the NWS is forecasting for as much as 6” of snow over sections of the High Plains.

No, we won’t get a taste of winter this far south, but you will note a big chance between Saturday and Sunday! While we’ve tweaked the timing of the front’s arrival forward by several hours, that won’t mean any real change in our forecast for the weekend. Highs are still expected to climb into the upper 80°s for most of us on Saturday, with the big cool-down arriving Sunday morning.

The front still looks to be “mainly dry” -- we’ll add a token 10% rain chance to the forecast for early Sunday, but that is little more than forecast statistics to account for the unlikely chance of a sprinkle or two that might develop along and just behind the front as it passes by. By Sunday afternoon, we’ll enjoy a sun/cloud mix with highs in the 70°s -- a real return of autumn weather.

The cool air hangs around for another day -- Monday, Columbus Day -- but temps will quickly moderate after that, with mid to upper 80°s returning for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. We’re also keeping a slight chance of rain in the forecast for the middle of next week.

In the tropics, Oscar succumbed to the shearing winds we noted on Thursday and satellite evidence suggests that ‘he’ lost his tropical characteristics this morning. Elsewhere, there has been a flare-up in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) along the trailing end of an old frontal boundary interacting with a weak tropical wave. The action is being enhanced by upper-level winds, but any tropical formation appears highly unlikely given the fast-paced upper-level winds.

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