By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta
And the run of good weather seems to get just a little bit better! More sunshine today and maybe just a little warmer -- and a forecast that says continued great weather right through the weekend. In fact, about the only thing you’ll need for Saturday’s St. Patty’s Parade might be a little sunscreen!
High pressure has settled over the central Gulf Coast today and will slowly ease to the east over the next two days. As it moves east, our winds will come around to the south and southwest, adding to the warming trend over the next few days. In fact, many WAFB communities will be flirting with the 80°s over the weekend and into early next week.
It’s been a “cool and dry” March so far. 11 of the 14 days this month -- including today -- have been cooler-than-normal, including the three morning freezes on March 2nd, 3rd and 7th. But we’re shaping up for a string of days that will be quite warm. As for the recent run of dry days, one might say that we were due for it given the record wet winter (Dec-Jan-Feb).
The national weather picture over the coming days still includes a southbound Canadian front, but that front is still expected to stall to our north during the weekend, becoming stationary along an Oklahoma-Arkansas-Tennessee line. However, a deepening surface low will develop over the Southern Plains along that stationary boundary during the latter part of the weekend. The low will track to the ENE and arrive over the mid-Atlantic states late Monday or Tuesday, and as that lows moves east, it will bring a trailing cold front through the lower Mississippi Valley. The timing still remains a little uncertain, but the latest round of guidance has moved the front’s arrival up a bit -- we now expect it to move through the WAFB viewing area during the latter half of Monday.
Monday’s front still does not look all that potent -- were going with only a 20% to 30% rain chance as it moves by, with most WAFB neighborhoods getting under one-quarter-inch of rain. The air behind Monday’s front will be cooler, but certainly not cold.
In the extended outlook, rain chances return for Thursday.