Monday, October 27, 2014

A Few Showers Possible on Tuesday & Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- very slight rain chance for Tuesday, 30% chance for Wednesday
- cooler-and-drier for the rest of the week
- T.S. Hanna inland over NE Nicaragua
- keeping tabs on Invest 95L, east of the Leeward Islands

Most of us have only had three significant rainy days over the past 8 weeks or so ... 60-day rain totals for much of the viewing area are running at just 60% to 75% of normal. We’ve enjoyed a prolonged spell of fine autumn weather, but many of us could use a decent soaking now. That said, not everyone needs rain: some of our more southern and coastal viewers would tell you that they have seen more than enough over the past two months.

True, fall tends to be one of the drier periods of the year, especially if we go through the season without any tropical troubles. And no one is “in drought” as yet, but a little rain would be great for many lawns, gardens, streams and bayous, plus it would knock down some of the dust and pollen that’s beginning to give many of you that irritating ‘drip and tickle’ in the back of the throat!

So what about some rain? A modest chance, at most, over the next two days.

A cool front slides through the state on Wednesday, but it’s not packing much of a punch. No threat of any severe weather is a good thing, but no rain will mean no help for dry landscapes and pastures. We’ll go with spotty showers (at best) for Tuesday and then only a 30% rain chance for Wednesday as the front slides by. So most of you won’t get any measurable rain ... and most of those that do get a shower or two will hardly notice any improvement.

What’s more, we’re thinking that if you don’t get any rain over the next two days, you will have to wait until another week -- until next Tuesday and Wednesday -- for the next real chance.

Wednesday’s front will be followed by a cooler-and-drier continental air mass, with highs in the 70°s for the rest of the week and the weekend, and lows dropping as low as the 40°s for some WAFB communities by week’s end. So for outdoor fun for the kids, the weather will cooperate right through the upcoming weekend -- but the plants, trees and shrubs aren’t happy.

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) decided that what were the remnants of T.D. #9 made a big come-back earlier today over the western Caribbean and designated the disturbed weather as T.S. Hanna, the eighth ‘named’ storm of the season. Hanna has already moved inland over the coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, but the NHC maintained ‘her’ at tropical-storm strength through the 4pm Advisory. It seems a near certainty that Hanna will rapidly weaken and is expected to dissipate in 24 hours or less.

The NHC is also watching a large tropical wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles, designating the area of lowest pressure as Invest 95L. Development chances for 95L are set at just 20% over the next five days and the ‘early’ forecast models keep 95L out in the open Atlantic.

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