Monday, December 8, 2014

Cool, Dry Through the Week

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- stays cool through the work week
- stays dry right through the upcoming weekend

Our run of November/December mild-to-warm days ended on Saturday with the weekend frontal passage. Now we’re into a run of cooler-than-normal weather that began Sunday. 

We’ve said it many times: during the “cool” months (October thru April), daily temperatures are often above- or below-normal for a large portion of the time. Unlike the summer months, what daily temperatures can be nearly identical day after day, it is not uncommon during the cool months (frontal periods) with fewer than half of all days being near-normal in terms of temperatures. We’re either positioned to the south of the front, making for warm days … or to the north of the boundary, giving us a taste of cool, continental or Pacific air. Many of the days that end up “near-normal” are transition days as we see-saw from warm-to-cool (or vice versa).

Normal lows for most of our viewing area at this time of year are in the low to mid 40°s while highs are generally in the mid 60°s. Many WAFB communities dipped into the upper 30°s this morning, although we did warm into the mid and upper 60°s under sunny skies for the afternoon. We’re calling for a “repeat” for Tuesday: upper 30°s to around 40° for Baton Rouge’s Tuesday morning low with mid to upper 60°s under sunshine once again. After that, we’ll cool things down a bit as a reinforcing dose of Canadian air makes its way to the Gulf Coast overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.

That means morning lows in the upper 30°s for the Red Stick on Wednesday, Thursday and possibly even Friday mornings. We’re not anticipating any freezes for metro BR, but some WAFB viewers north and east of the Capital City -- especially along and north of the LA/MS state line -- could get close. Our forecast calls for highs in the upper 50°s to around 60° for Wednesday and Thursday, with low 60°s for highs on Friday. 

The forecast also says leave the umbrellas at home through the weekend -- good news for holiday shoppers! 

While we can expect a northerly to easterly low-level flow through mid-week, winds will come around to a more southeasterly direction toward week’s end. That means milder air off the Gulf as we climb back into the low 60°s for Friday afternoon then into the upper 60°s to around 70° for the weekend.

In the extended range, guidance is highlighting a developing storm system located over the Southern Plains on Sunday, making for “rain likely” by Monday as the system marches east. It is too early to tell right now, but Monday could prove to be a stormy day: we’ll get a better bead on any severe threat in the coming days.

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