Friday, February 20, 2015

Windy, Warm, Rain for Saturday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- warmer, wetter for Saturday
- cold front on Sunday, rain likely
- stays unsettled through next week

** Don’t forget -- rain or shine -- Steve and Jay will be at Academy Sports in Denham Springs at the Juban Crossing Center with representatives from the National Weather Service and several Livingston Parish ‘Response’ organizations to help you get ‘Storm Ready’ ... 11am-1pm on Saturday. **

A cold start to the day with some neighborhoods beginning Friday with a light morning freeze.  Temperatures warmed into the 60°s for most of us as clouds crossed the region throughout the day.  Doppler radar picked-up a pocket of showers that tracked from the coast to the northeast across the tidal lakes and towards the Hammond area during the afternoon.  Other spots in the viewing area had passing light showers through the afternoon but the majority of us stayed dry through the day.

We’ll keep isolated showers in the evening and late night forecast, with rains becoming more scattered in coverage by Saturday morning.  It stays breezy to windy through the evening and overnight too.  But we’re done with cold air -- at least for the short term -- as flow comes off the Gulf over the next 36 hours or more.  The mild and moist Gulf air will keep temperatures in the upper 50°s to around 60° through the night and into Saturday’s sunrise.

Rain chances will increase through the day on Saturday, with a rumble or two of thunder not out of the question.  It should be another breezy-to-windy day with highs getting into the 70°s for most WAFB neighborhoods.  The good news is that these won’t be all-day rains; in fact, we’re thinking that these will be passing, on-and-off showers for the most part.  Most won’t last long, although you could get more than one passing round through the day. 

We’re not thinking much in the way of accumulations either -- most will see well under one-quarter inch of rain on Saturday and whatever t-storms that do develop won’t be severe.  In fact, a few areas may stay dry throughout -- but we’re going with rain chances at 60% or better through the course of the day, so the majority of us should see at least a little rain.

The rains may subside just a bit into the evening and overnight, but they return for Sunday morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest.  We’re still juggling the timing of the front a bit, and the models are suggesting that it may slow just as it gets into our viewing area.  But it looks like a morning arrival fopr the cold front with rain likely through the morning and into the afternoon.  Once again, nothing severe to worry about, and it’s not likely to be an all-day rain affair.

With the morning arrival, however, we’ve taken 70°s off the Sunday board.  In fact, now we’re thinking low 60°s for highs in and around the Capital City.

Then comes a return of really chilly weather … and the rains linger as well. 

Our Monday forecast keeps highs in the 40°s, and there is growing potential for a little of the ‘frozen stuff’ across much of northern and western Louisiana during the day and into the evening.  For now, it looks like most or all of the WAFB area will stay too warm, but we’ll watch closely for the potential across some of our more northern and northwestern communities.

Our current forecast keeps things cool throughout the work week: we’re calling for highs in the 50°s all week long.  Lows should stay above freezing throughout for the Red Stick, although possibly getting close to a freeze on Tuesday.  And certainly our more northern communities will have better chances for light morning freezes, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday.

What’s more, the weather stays “unsettled” through the week too.  The key extended-range models we use -- the American GFS and the ‘European’ model -- differ on the day-to-day timings of rain days through the upcoming week, but both have rains moving in and out of the area during the Monday-thru-Friday window.

Keep the umbrella handy.

No comments:

Post a Comment