Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Warm, Small Rain Chances on Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- areas of fog possible for Wednesday morning
- staying with highs in the 80°s through Friday
- slight uptick in rain chances for Thursday, late Friday and early Saturday

It was another warm day to close out the month of March, with many neighborhoods reaching the 80°s once again under a mix of sun and clouds.  For Baton Rouge’s Metro Airport (BTR), today marks the third straight day with highs in the 80°s, with three more days in the 80°s expected as we close out the work week.

Our forecast for Wednesday -- April Fool’s Day -- calls for a morning start on the mild-and-somewhat-muggy side, with low clouds and areas of fog to begin the day.  Look for a low around 60° to the low 60°s for the first day of April here in the Capital City area.  We expect something similar to the last couple of afternoons for Wednesday, with a high in the low 80°s under partly cloudy skies to a sun/cloud mix.  We may also see a few blips on Doppler radar for Wednesday afternoon, but the vast majority of WAFB neighborhoods will stay dry through the day.

As we get into Thursday, a weak upper-level disturbance currently over Mexico rolls across the central Gulf Coast region.  Usually these can be decent rainmakers, but the last couple of these to come through our area have failed to deliver on the expected rains.  This set-up looks much the same: the models are hinting that this disturbance will get “stretched” and lose some of its form before it arrives.  As such, we’ll go with modest rain chances for Thursday at about 30% or so.

Most of Friday stays dry, although we do have our next cold front approaching from the northwest.  But it looks as though the front doesn’t arrive until the late night hours (Friday into Saturday).  We’ll go with a 20% to 30% rain chance for Friday evening with those percentages rising to about 40% or so during the overnight and early morning hours Saturday.  Saturday afternoon should see some clearing and it turns noticeably cooler, with highs only reaching around 70° to the low 70°s for the Red Stick.

The forecast is a little blurry for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame as models are showing some passing disturbances in the region but differ on their strength and timing.  For now at least, we still believe that Easter Sunday morning remains dry, with only a 30% chance of rain through the rest of the day.  Look for scattered rains on Monday and Tuesday too.

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