July 3rd WAFB First Alert Quickcast:- back to scattered afternoon t-storms for the independence Day weekend
- drier and a little warmer for next week
Happy 4th to you and yours!
We doubt that anyone is complaining about our back-to-back dry days, thanks to high pressure at the mid and upper levels putting the clamps on afternoon thundershower development.
Unfortunately, the “lid” comes off the atmosphere over the weekend and we return to scattered afternoon showers and t-storms for both Saturday and Sunday. In fact, we’re leaning towards “rain likely” for Saturday (rain chances at 50% to 60% for Saturday afternoon), and there is a potential for a few strong to severe storms in the WAFB area over the two-day span.
The upper-level high (a mid/upper-air ridge, the “lid” on the pot) that put the brakes on afternoon rains yesterday and today will give ground over the weekend. That will let our moist and unstable Gulf air do its thing: build mid-day and afternoon showers and storms without an inhibitor to slow their vertical growth. Neither day will result in all-day rains for your backyard, but we expect a pretty active radar depiction for both afternoons as individual t-storms build, move and subside through the day. If you’ve got outdoor plans on either day, make sure that you have an indoor or under-cover option ready to go.
After muggy morning starts in the low to mid 70°s for both Saturday and Sunday around metro Baton Rouge, look for temperatures to climb into the upper 80°s to around 90° before the clouds and rains knock the temperatures back through the afternoon.
As for the Saturday evening “Fireworks on the Levee,” we expect the rains to have dissipated by showtime, but we could still have isolated rains in the area as late as 7:00 or even 8:00pm. We’re thinking that temperatures for the 9:00pm showtime will be in the upper 70°s to low 80°s on the levee.
Into next week, the ridge returns, taking rain chances back down into the ”isolated” category for just about every day next week -- yep, too bad the ridge had to retreat during the weekend. With the drier pattern in the forecast for next week, plan for muggy morning sunrises in the low to mid 70°s for most WAFB communities, with highs in the low 90°s just about every day.