Clouds Remain, Spotty Showers & Even Warmer!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Thursday certainly was not the “prettiest” day weather as clouds blanketed the area throughout the better part of the day. A few folks saw some peaks of sunshine but gray skies were the rule with occasionally gusty winds during the afternoon. A look at 5 p.m. winds shows the pronounced southerly flow that resulted in today's warm-up that will persist into the weekend.

The clouds stay with us tonight and we could see a couple of light showers after midnight and into the morning, but most of us will remain dry. With the southerly flow in place, temps won’t drop much overnight -- many WAFB communities, especially those located from the interstate southward, will remain in the 60°s through the night and into Friday morning.

Friday won’t be much different in terms of the clouds. But it will get warmer, as many neighborhoods will see the thermometer reach the mid 70°s by mid-afternoon. We expect spotty showers during the day and Friday will be a bit windier as well -- mainly south winds in the 10-20 mph range with higher gusts.

We still see Saturday as a “wet” day for many, although we’ve back rain chances down a tad from yesterday. We’re thinking a 30% to 40% chance of rain for your backyard, with the higher end of that range (~40%) posted for BR and points northward and the lower end (~30%) for areas south of the Capital City. But highs will return to the 70°s once again.

And it’s more 70°s for Sunday, under a sun/cloud mix through the day.

Recent rains have taken a minor “bite” out of the prolonged drought for many of our SW Mississippi viewers and some of the communities to the north and NW or Baton Rouge, but we maintain “moderate to severe drought” conditions for just about everyone south of the I-10/12 corridor.

Yes, many of us could still use plenty of rain. The forecast for next week ooks a bit wetter than many of us have seen in recent weeks, so maybe some additional drought relief is right around the corner.

Isolated Severe Storms Possible

An upper-air disturbance moving into Louisiana this morning in advance of a cool front is giving storms to our northwest a bit of a boost. Around 9:30 a.m., the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicated it would likely issue a severe weather watch for much of the area outlined below:

Nearly 2 hours later, most of the storms have been held in check and the SPC has yet to issue a watch for any of our viewers. One thing working in our favor so far is generally overcast skies. Clouds are limiting the amount of heating taking place, which is keeping the atmosphere just stable enough to prevent the storms from getting stronger. Here's a look at an 11 a.m. snapshot from our Interactive Radar:

While most of the activity is being kept in check, we will be monitoring those stronger storms you see around Alexandria that will move into portions of the area this afternoon. I still think widespread severe weather is unlikely, but a few isolated strong-to-severe storms, with hail, damaging winds, or even an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

We'll have more through the day on WAFB...and don't forget to follow us on Twitter - @WAFBweather or @stevecaparotta

Rain on the way...

Wow...despite the clouds, I've certainly enjoyed the warm-up over the last 24-36 hours! After temps in the 20°s Friday & Saturday mornings, and a light freeze Sunday morning, today's low of 50° in Baton Rouge was much easier to stomach. And even with generally cloudy skies today, we've seen temps climb into the low to mid 70°s thanks to a steady southerly flow.

While you may want to keep the rain gear handy on Tuesday, your morning commute should be fairly quiet. Here's a look at what our Titan9 model shows for 7 a.m. on Tuesday:

Patchy fog and a few sprinkles are possible, but the more significant weather will still be well to our north in the morning along a cool front.

Now here's a look at what our Titan9 model shows for 7 p.m. on Tuesday:

We're essentially in agreement with our Titan9 model, looking for little rain in the morning, but rain chances to steadily increase into the afternoon and evening. While the threat of severe weather looks minimal, we can't totally rule it out, particularly if we're able to get any sunshine breaking through the clouds.  The Storm Prediction Center is at least giving a small probability (5%) of severe weather in the area:

Any wet weather should come to an end late Tuesday night, with clearing skies and cooler temps expected for Wednesday. It looks as though a quick-moving system could deliver isolated-to-scattered showers once again from late Friday into Saturday.

Don't forget to check out our Interactive Radar on Tuesday to keep up with the rains. You can also download our free weather app for iPhone, Android, or Blackberry in each respective market.

Good-Looking Weekend!

A Hard Freeze Warning has once again been posted for much of the WAFB viewing area late tonight into Saturday morning. In fact, the National Weather Service (NWS) has extended the warning farther south tonight, into Assumption and St. James parishes.

While the NWS has gone farther south with the warning, I'm not sure that I agree. A hard freeze is defined locally as temps in the mid 20°s for several hours. While I can't rule out a few spots in Assumption & St. James briefly touching the mid 20°s, I think SEVERAL hours in the mid 20°s is unlikely. In fact, I don't even think much of metro Baton Rouge will meet those criteria.

Regardless, the bottom line is that tonight is another where we need to take care of people, pets, and plants in the cold, but pipes should not be a problem.

Saturday morning should be our last freeze for a while as southerly winds return by the afternoon and continue through the remainder of the weekend. Some of our northernmost viewers could flirt with a light freeze Sunday morning, but most of us should start out above 32°.

Overall, once we get past our cold start Saturday, it's shaping up to be a rather nice weekend. We'll keep rain out of the forecast until early next week when our next front approaches.

Have a great weekend!

Hard Freeze = Pipe-Busting Freeze?

The National Weather Service offices in Lake Charles and Slidell have posted a Hard Freeze Warning tonight for much of the WAFB viewing area, generally including those parishes/counties along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor.

Any time a Hard Freeze Warning is posted, there is inevitably talk of protecting the 4 'Ps' -- people, pets, plants and pipes. While the first 3 'Ps' (people, pets, plants) should be given significant attention tonight, I don't think your pipes will be at much risk in this event.

Let me address a couple of important points. First, while the phrase 'hard freeze' always garners a lot of attention, it really has little scientific meaning. In fact, each National Weather Service (NWS) office in the United States is allowed to use their own criteria to define a hard freeze. In our case, the NWS in Slidell defines a hard freeze as temperatures reaching the mid 20°s or lower for several hours. I'm forecasting a low of 27° for Baton Rouge, so you could argue that it may even be a bit of a stretch for us to meet the definition here in the Capital City. Areas farther north -- along the state line into Mississippi -- are much more likely to at least meet those criteria.

Second, the phrase 'hard freeze' instantly equates with pipe-busting cold for many people. Unfortunately, that's a notion that has really been perpetuated by my peers in the weather business. And it's really a myth. If you watched TV today or checked any local media websites, chances are you were warned to protect your pipes. However, while it's certainly a good idea to have any exposed plumbing protected during the winter months, I just don't think this will be a pipe-buster.

As I mentioned above, I'm forecasting a low of 27° in Baton Rouge. A quick search of the records shows that we've hit a temp of 27° or below 67 times since the start of 2001 (11+ years). That means, on average, we saw temps as cold as we expect Friday morning about 6 times a year during that stretch. Have your pipes frozen 67 times in the last 11 years? Have they even frozen once? Mine sure haven't. We did reach the upper teens in January of 2010 and it seems like I remember hearing a handful of reports of frozen pipes then, but that's about all I can remember.

To be fair, it's not just the actual temperature that determines the degree of a frozen pipe threat. The duration of temps below freezing (below 32°F) also has a lot to do with whether pipes will freeze or not. While some of our northern viewers could see temps at or below freezing for 10-12 hours or more, that's still unlikely to cause widespread problems.

While each home and situation is unique, research done by the Building Research Council at the University of Illinois indicates that the threat of frozen pipes becomes much greater once temps near 20° or below. That's just not in the offing for tonight/Friday morning, even for our northernmost viewers.

Now, let me say this...an hour or so spent around the house at the beginning of each winter can eliminate most of our frozen pipe concerns for a given event. Below is a link from the Red Cross on measures you can take to prevent your pipes from freezing and how to thaw frozen pipes:

Preventing & Thawing Frozen Pipes 

A Look Back at 2011's Weather

2011 was a very busy, deadly and costly year from a weather perspective. The feds report that there were at least a dozen U.S. weather/climate events (including the Southern Drought) that generated losses of $1 billion dollars or more -- each! Preliminary estimates from just twelve U.S. weather disasters total more than $50 billion, and by the time all is said and done, nationwide weather-related losses likely will far exceed $60 billion for the year.

And Louisiana was not spared.

Any review of 2011's weather for the Bayou State would be dominated by the "D" word -- drought. The current Southern Drought that has gained so much national attention -- mainly due to impacts across the Southern Plains -- can be traced to its beginnings over northern Louisiana back in 2010, then expanded westward from there and still persists today. Some portion of northern Louisiana has been "in drought" since April 2010 according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), a run of 20 months! During this past summer's peak for the drought across Louisiana, roughly two-thirds of the state was rated as suffering "Exceptional Drought" (the most critical level) by the USDM.

Other Louisiana weather stories for 2011 include a monster year for tornadoes in the Bayou State. The NWS preliminary count for the Pelican State approaches 90 twisters for the year, more than double the average. Interestingly, roughly one-fifth of those struck between April 25-26, just 1-2 days before the deadly super outbreak across central and northern Alabama, and all generated by the same weather set-up.

Ol' Man River reminded us that upstream downpours can become a downstream disaster, even when we are the ones praying for rain! The Mississippi River approached record flows during the spring, producing widespread flooding for those along the river in northeast Louisiana and prompting only the second opening of the Morganza Spillway since its construction. Let's not forget the irony -- floodwaters from the Ohio, Upper Mississippi and Missouri rivers threatened Louisiana while 'she' was deep in drought, a reminder that the Mississippi's flow is all but unaffected by our local weather and climate trends.

When it turns dry, it tends to get warmer than normal. Dry soils usually mean higher temperatures, and the numbers confirm that the 2011 summer was the "hottest on record" across Louisiana. Shreveport reached or exceeded 100ºF on 62 days, smashing that city's previous record. The record heat stressed livestock, shriveled crops and natural vegetation, and drove cooling costs through the roof statewide.

Then came September's Lee, Louisiana's first tropical visitor since 2008's Gustav and Ike. Fortunately, Lee was a modest tropical storm and wind damage was relatively minor. Rain, on the other hand, was a different story, with sections of southeast Louisiana receiving from 10" to 15" over a 5-day period. Normally such heavy rains would produce considerable flooding and certainly there was notable property damage. But drought conditions at the time of Lee's arrival helped reduce the storm's impact, and for many, Lee was more blessing as a temporary "drought buster" than a curse.

In the end, however, it was the lack of rain for most that topped 2011's weather news for Louisiana. Preliminary statewide rainfall for 2011 averaged just 42.9", roughly 14" below the 100-year average, making 2011 one of the ten "driest" years on record for the state.

Yes, that's very dry, but not as dry as it was during 2010!

And here is what may be the #1 developing climate story for Louisiana: 2010 and 2011 are the "driest" back-to-back years on record, and a look at the 100+ year record of annual rainfall (see rainfall timeline below) suggests that we may be in a period of moderately reduced rainfall, especially when compared to the "wet run" of the 1980s and most of the 1990s. Statewide annual rainfall since 1999 has averaged about 55", 10% less than the statewide average during the previous 20 years.



Now don't panic, at least not yet! We aren't anticipating year-after-year repeats of the past two, with annual totals under 45" becoming the rule. But there is some evidence suggesting that not only is Louisiana's "wet run" long over, but that the more recent trend towards a somewhat "drier" climate may be more rule-than-exception, at least for the next several years.

In addition -- and possibly more importantly -- the last two years have reminded us that even for the "wettest state in the Lower 48," rain and surface water are precious resources and must be managed efficiently to meet the state's current and future environmental, agricultural, human and business needs.

Tornado Video Out of Oklahoma

As I promised you at 5, here's a link to the incredible tornado video taken in the Wichita Mountains in southwest Oklahoma:

SW Oklahoma Tornado