Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Severe Storms Possible Late Wed. - Thurs.

A warm front moving northward out of the Gulf of Mexico has produced our expected rains today. Many areas have seen a decent soaking, with .50" to 1" of rainfall, but radar estimates show as much as 2" of rain occurred in portions of St. Mary, St. Martin and Assumption parishes.

While the warm front delivered anticipated rains, it's been a bit slower moving inland than expected, resulting in a somewhat cool day, particularly in areas that have stayed damp this afternoon.  A plot of 4 p.m. temps shows we're only at 54° in Baton Rouge, but a look to the south shows temps in the mid to upper 60°s that will be working inland as the evening progresses.

Since the warm front will be north of all of us by later tonight, muggy conditions will quickly return to the area. The moisture leftover from today's rains, along with the warmer, more humid air arriving from the Gulf will lead to the threat of some fog tonight into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday should start out mainly dry, but scattered showers and t-storms are possible by the afternoon in advance of our next cool front. While we can't rule out an isolated strong storm late in the day, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is keeping the more significant severe weather threat just to our west through early Thursday morning.

While the SPC keeps the threat to our west through 6 a.m. Thursday, I think we will see an increasing chance of a few strong to severe storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cool front approaches. SPC does shift the 'slight risk' area eastward with the front into the day on Thursday.

The primary threat from any strong storms will be damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, particularly in any cells that are able to form in advance of the main line.

The severe weather threat will end with the passage of the cool front on Thursday, but a few showers could linger into Friday morning. Cooler temps and clearing skies will arrive just in time for the weekend!


  1. Will it be as bad as they had in Alabama the other night?

  2. That's not likely, but isolated tornadoes are possible.