Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Heat Continues, Isolated T-Storms

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As we’ve seen the last few days, pockets of showers and storms developed during the afternoon, with the main action occurring over the southern parishes.  For most of us, however, it was just another in a string of hot-and-humid days.

We’re staying with a “very hot and mostly dry” forecast for the rest of the week and right through the weekend - - look for daily rain chances at 20% or less through Sunday, with morning lows in the mid to even the upper 70°s around metro Baton Rouge and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90°s.  Factor in our summer humidity and the afternoon Heat Index readings will likely peak out in the triple-digits -- so be extra careful in the heat, especially if you are not accustomed to it.

The upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains will remain a dominant feature in our weather for the next several days, providing a bit of a lid on the local atmosphere.  That lid inhibits the vertical development of the afternoon clouds -- that means not only less rain but also more sunshine to drive the afternoon temperatures up.

With the build-up of heat through the day coupled with dew points running in the low to mid 70°s, it not only gets uncomfortably hot in the afternoon but the cool-down is slow to set-in through the evening and even into the overnight.  As a result, we’ll have more muggy morning starts to deal with right into next week.

A weak cool front will try to make its way into south Louisiana during the next day or so.  However, we don’t think it will do much in terms of impacting the expected heat, nor will it do much in terms of promoting local rains.  By the weekend, the boundary will have lifted north as a warm front, leaving us with our humid Gulf air.

Elsewhere ... all quiet in the tropics: no tropical waves in the basin are displaying any serious potential for development over the coming days.

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