Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Big Changes Around the Corner!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

The week’s biggest weather story so far has been all about the “spring-like” temperatures: 80° for a Baton Rouge high on Tuesday, 82° for the Metro Airport today, and another near-record high in the forecast for Thursday afternoon. In addition, this morning’s low of 69° is the Capital City’s “warmest” morning start on record for December 4th, another sign of the unusual temperatures to begin the month.

This afternoon’s sun/cloud mix will give way to mainly cloudy skies tonight. Once again, with the warm-and-moist Gulf air mass over the central Gulf Coast region, be prepared for patches of fog to develop overnight and into the early morning for Thursday. But just like earlier this morning, we think the winds will be stay up just enough tonight and tomorrow morning to limit a concern for widespread dense fog.

We’ve still got the next cold front scheduled for arrival on Friday and that will mean an end to this warm trend. Ahead of the front, on Thursday afternoon, we’ll call for scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two -- set rain chances at 30% for Thursday afternoon with highs back up around 80° again. In addition, as the front draws closer to the viewing area through Thursday evening and overnight, area rain chances will continue to rise.

Call it “rain likely” for Friday with temps through the morning in the 60°s. The front is expected to slowly move through the viewing area during the day, putting most WAFB viewers on the “cold” side of the front by the afternoon. Friday may well be one of those days when the day’s highest temperatures occur during the morning for many WAFB neighborhoods with temperatures steadily falling throughout the latter half of the day.

The forecast calls for the front to stall and meander along the coast on Saturday -- a set-up that translates into cold “overrunning” rains. For now at least, Saturday looks like a chilly, cloudy and wet day -- with highs struggling to reach 50° for the Red Stick. Truth is, Saturday probably will ‘feel’ colder than the thermometer says given the dampness and our recent run of warm weather.

Sunday is expected to be warmer than Saturday, but not much drier. And even Monday shapes up to be wet, with another surge of chilly air behind the next cold front as we start the work week. Thankfully, the rains end before mid-day Tuesday, but temps will be well-below normal for mid-week with morning starts expected in the 30°s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

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