Monday, September 15, 2014

Good Rain Chances on Tuesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- a ‘wet’ Tuesday likely for the WAFB area
- no tropical threats for the Gulf region any time soon

We had a 2” downpour here at the WAFB studio earlier this afternoon, most of it falling between about 1:30-2:30pm. While radar was ‘lit up’ around the immediate metro area from about 1:00-3;00pm, the majority of WAFB communities managed to stay dry through the day. However, as of 4pm, we’re still tracking some action, especially south of the Capital City. The atmosphere across our viewing area remains rather juicy, so we’ll keep spotty showers in the overnight and morning forecast. That means “mostly dry” for the morning drive and school bus ride on Tuesday, with lows around sunrise in the low 70°s for metro BR. 

Rain chances will increase as the day progresses, so the question becomes: “Just how widespread will it be?”

We admit to getting mixed signals from the models on the rain coverage for Tuesday, with rain percentages running from roughly 40% to as high as 80%. We’ll split the difference for now and call it 60% or so for the afternoon -- in other words, “showers & t-storms likely.” The rain and clouds should keep Tuesday’s highs in the mid to upper 80°s for just about everyone, with the rains tapering off into the evening. We’re carrying spotty showers in the late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning forecast with rain chances rising to about 40% for Wednesday afternoon.

A frontal system to our north is headed our way and appears that it reaches the WAFB area on Wednesday – plan for scattered showers and storms for Wednesday afternoon. The front may slow a bit as it continues south and again the model guidance isn’t in agreement as to what happens for Thursday and Friday. For the time being, we’ll set rain chances at 30% for Thursday and 20% for Friday, but we do so with somewhat low confidence. If the front can push far enough south, both days could become fair-weather days.

Expect lows near 70° to the low 70°s for metro BR just about all week long, with highs in the upper 80°s to near 90°. Headed into the weekend, we’ll call for 30% rain chances for both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the upper 80°s to near 90°. And in the extended, the guidance is hinting at another cool front early next week.

We’re still tracking a very strong ‘Category 2’ Edouard, moving NW to NNW over the open Atlantic. The latest NHC forecast calls for Edouard to continue to intensify, becoming a Category 3 hurricane later today or tomorrow - - the first ‘major’ hurricane of the 2014 season. Fortunately, Edouard will remain well to the east of Bermuda, which means no threats to land as we await the expected turn to the north and then NE. Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific Basin, Hurricane Odile continues to spin over the Baja (California) Peninsula and is expected to remain over land for the next day or so. Remnants of Odile (likely a depression by or before Wednesday) could reach the U.S. Southwest later in the week.

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