Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Somewhat Better Rain Chances on Thursday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- sct’d t-showers back in the forecast for Thursday
- looking mainly-dry for Friday & Saturday
- no Louisiana threats in the tropics
Today proved to be close to rain-free across the WAFB area -- admittedly a bit of a surprise for us.  The atmosphere was certainly moist enough to support afternoon rains but it may simply be that the day’s cloud cover slowed the afternoon warm-up just enough to keep from reaching the “temperature trigger” (often called the convective temperature) required to get the afternoon action going.
For most of us, there was no complaining about a day without rain!
We don’t expect to be as lucky tomorrow.  Plan on patches of light fog and a spotty shower or two closer to the coast for Thursday’s morning drive.  After a morning start with sunrise temperatures in the low 70°s for metro BR, our forecast calls for scattered showers and a few t-storms for Thursday afternoon under a sun/cloud mix.  We’re posting rain chances for Thursday afternoon in the 30% to 40% range, which means that the majority of neighborhoods will stay dry, but be umbrella-ready just in case.
Friday’s forecast continues to improve with only spotty showers in the afternoon forecast: good news for ‘Live After Five’ and high school football.  And Tiger fans should be happy with the Red Stick forecast for Saturday: only a 20% rain chance, at most, for the afternoon hours.
We’re still trying to get a handle on the diffuse, meandering front that lingers over the southern states.  That front is still to our north, keeping us under the influence of Gulf moisture and accounting for our continued summer-like humidity.  We expect the front to continue to sag southward through the rest of the work week, passing through the BR metro area during the first half of the day on Friday and heading out into the northern Gulf by early Saturday.  That scenario delivers slightly ‘drier’ (less humid) continental air for Friday and into the weekend, resulting in our ‘drier’ forecasts for Friday and Saturday.  Unfortunately, we expect the front to stall, at least temporarily, near the coast on Saturday into Sunday, keeping it close enough to allow for slight rain chances for Saturday and Sunday.
Our next cool front slides through the U.S. Plains early Sunday on its way to the Gulf Coast.  Its advance looks to be a little slower today than it did yesterday, but we still expect it to arrive in our viewing area during the latter half of Monday or very early Tuesday.  However, the latest guidance also hints at that front stalling close to the coast, so it may not deliver the “real fall feel” that we were hoping for.  However, all that is well down the road: let’s see how it shapes up later this week. 
And in the tropics, there is nothing of any concern for Louisiana and Gulf regional interests.  In fact, the entire basin can take a breather – no tropical waves offer any real threat of development at this time.  As for Hurricane Edouard, ‘he’ is well out to sea and headed ENE … and will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm within the next day.

No comments:

Post a Comment