Hurricane Season kicks-off on June 1st!

 

Now would be the time to review your personal, family and business 'Hurricane Plan' ... aer you ready?  Check out WAFB.com for some helpful suggestions.  Remember, the consensus among tropical weahter forecasters is that the 2013 season will be another 'busy' one ... and 1-in-3 'named' storms become Gulf storms.

 

Rain coverage today was somewhat limited as we expected, but that wasn’t good enough to keep Alex Box dry ... and the LSU Tigers had to deal with a rain-delay in the early afternoon during their NCAA Regional match-up with Jackson State. Today’s showers tended to be fairly quick movers, running form south-to-north at about 20-25 mph, which means that for most that did get rain, it didn’t last long nor did it amount to much.

 

The rains will taper-off this evening and we’ll go to partly cloudy skies into the evening and overnight.

 

Saturday morning will be on the muggy side, with just a couple of showers for the early morning. By the afternoon, we’ll see a repeat of Friday’s weather: in-and-out of the clouds, with passing showers and a few rumbles of thunder with temps climbing to 90° or more. We’re setting rain chances at about 30% for the afternoon -- so most of you stay dry -- with the temp and humidity combining to push the Heat Index (‘feels like temp’) into the mid 90°s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’re still expecting a cool front to slide through the state on Sunday, and that means better rain chances through the day -- for now, I’m thinking a 50% to 60% chance through the middle of Sunday. The good news is that it does look like Sunday’s front will continue to march to the east and southeast on Monday, allowing “drier” (less humid) continental air to filter into the lower Mississippi Valley for Monday afternoon into Tuesday. That doesn’t mean a big drop in the afternoon temps for those two days -- I’m still calling for highs around 90° -- but the afternoons won’t be oppressive thanks to the lower dew points.

 

Sadly, the “drier” air mass doesn’t last long and by Wednesday the humidity begins its return, with scattered rains returning to the forecast by Thursday and Friday.

A Short Reprieve from the Rains?

 

The start of Hurricane Season is just two days away: are you Hurricane Ready? Have you got your “Game Plan?”

 

 

 

We’ve been keeping a watch on Barbara, the Eastern Pacific tropical system that was trying to work its way into the southwestern Gulf (Bay of Campeche). Fortunately, Barbara couldn’t survive the trip -- although ‘she’ picked the narrow strip of Mexico’s Isthmus of Tehuantepec, the interaction with the nearby high terrain and ‘her’ slow movement spelled “Goodbye” to Barbara -- and the National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the system.

 

Around the WAFB viewing area, we did have a few showers and t-storms in the region today, but coverage was considerably lower than what we saw on Wednesday. And we expect a repeat of this drier pattern for Friday and probably Saturday as well. True, the air is moist enough, but the atmosphere is not quite as unstable as it was at mid-week, so there’s not quite as much opportunity for rising air to generate rain-making clouds. Still, we do expect a few afternoon showers and storms for Friday and Saturday -- we’re setting rain chances in the 20% to 30% range for both days.

 

 

 

A cool front will be getting better-organized in the Southern Plains by Saturday, with that front expected to reach northwestern Louisiana by Sunday morning. This boundary will provide a boost in atmospheric lift -- in other words, it should help get the rains and t-storms going on Sunday. For now, I’m thinking a 50-50 chance or better for rain in your backyard on Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

Our current guidance says the front slowly clears to the east on Monday, with a drier Canadian air mass filtering into the lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Now don’t be thinking “cooler” -- in fact, with the drier air we should see fewer clouds, which means more solar heating. So look for highs in the low 90°s for next Tuesday and Wednesday, but we should feel a brief drop in the humidity.

 

Down the road, there is some hinting at another front approaching towards the end of next week.  We'll have to watch and see if that really pans out.

Summer Pattern Sets-in for the Week!

-- 28 May 2013

 

Don’t look for any cool fronts this week -- all of the nation’s frontal action will remain to our north and west into the weekend, at least. Along the Gulf Coast, we are locked into a summertime weather pattern now, with Gulf moisture and late May heat combining to make the afternoons uncomfortably warm and also fuel those typical afternoon showers and t-storms as we head deeper into the work week.

After our long-weekend of relatively “dry” air, today’s rain coverage remained rather limited. But that changes for the rest of the week as the atmosphere overhead “moistens up.”

A dome of surface high pressure is located just off the Atlantic Coast with low pressure sitting just east of the Rockies. That puts us in the middle of an east-to-west pressure gradient, which will mean a general southeasterly flow over the WAFB viewing area for the coming days. That means a steady flow off the Gulf with the regional atmospheric moisture climbing as the week progresses.

This morning’s low of 67° will likely be the “coolest” morning start that we’ll see for some time. Mornings will be rather muggy for the rest of the week and right into the weekend, with sun-up temps running at or even above 70° for the Red Stick -- a signal of a moist air mass in place. By the mid to late afternoons, temps will have climbed into the upper 80°s to low 90°s for most WAFB neighborhoods, with clouds building through the afternoon thanks to the warm and unstable air mass. That means scattered afternoon and early evening thundershowers just about every day for the rest of the week.

 

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains our summer-like days into the weekend, but also is suggesting that a cool front could work its way through the Bayou State on Sunday. For the time being, the extended models don’t seem to be showing any real “cool down” with this proposed front -- we’ll watch as the week progresses to see of the computer models offer any heat relief down the road.

We continue with Hurricane Preparedness Week -- today’s topic is wind.

Most of us are well aware of the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with 5 categories for hurricanes based on sustained maximum winds. Louisiana is no stranger to hurricanes, having been impacted by more than three dozen since 1900. And of those, 14 were major hurricanes (Category 3-5) at landfall!

 

 

But it’s important to realize that tropical storm force winds -- ranging from 39 to 73 mph -- are more than sufficient to produce damage, especially when they persist for extended runs of hours.

In addition, hurricanes can generate destructive and deadly tornadoes, a serious threat that is often overlooked. As an example, the NWS confirmed more than 30 tornado touchdowns in Louisiana during 2008 thanks to Gustav and Ike.

Increasing Rain Chances This Week

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

We enjoyed somewhat of a break from our usual muggy weather for part of the weekend, but humidity is quickly making a comeback and we’ll see a return of our typical late-May ‘muggies’ through the week! That will translate into warmer morning starts near 70° and less comfortable afternoons as highs top out in the upper 80°s.

Titan9 Doppler Radar has only picked up on a few spotty showers and t-storms the last couple of days, but we’re also expecting increasing rain chances this week. Rain coverage should remain pretty limited on Tuesday – less than 20% -- but better rain chances are expected the remainder of the week. We’ll put at least a 50/50 chance of wet weather in the forecast on Wednesday, with scattered, mainly afternoon showers and t-storms each day from Thursday into the weekend.

So why are we looking for increased rain chances? Believe it or not, a lot of it will have to do will a large plume of moisture originating in the western Caribbean. Clockwise flow around high pressure (the ‘Bermuda High’) in the western Atlantic will transport this source of deep tropical moisture all the way through the Gulf and into our vicinity later this week. Increased moisture, combined with temps in the upper 80°s to near 90°, should set the stage for scattered showers and t-storms for the second half of the week into the weekend.

And a final note…with the official start of Hurricane Season looming on Saturday, FEMA and NOAA have declared this week as “National Hurricane Preparedness Week”. Today’s focus is the threat of storm surge – one that we are all too familiar with here in south Louisiana.

We’re all aware of the large storm surges associated with hurricanes like Camille, Katrina, and Rita, but did you know 2012’s Isaac produced a storm surge topping 10 feet in parts of Plaquemines and St. Bernard parishes? And it also produced flooding that some had never seen in parts of St. John, St. James and Ascension parishes. This from what was ‘only’ a Category 1 hurricane. Isaac is the perfect example of why storm surge has been removed from the Saffir-Simpson scale used to rank hurricanes. The Saffir-Simpson scale was originally designed as a ‘wind’ scale and really does a poor job of conveying the storm surge threat from a given storm. While Isaac only produced Category 1 winds, it was a larger-than-average storm that was moving very slowly near and after landfall in Louisiana – two factors that led to an enhanced storm surge. So, if you live in a flood prone area, we encourage you to avoid simply thinking of storms in terms of their Saffir-Simpson categories and to pay attention to forecasts for water level rises in your area. This will give you a much better idea of potential impacts.

Warm, Less Humid This Weekend

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

We’ll keep a very slight chance of rain on the board into the evening, but it looks like the weak ‘backdoor’ front we’ve been waiting this week has eased its way through most of the viewing area.  Light, variable winds at Metro Airport will become light northeasterly and then easterly later this evening and overnight, signaling that the front has drifted south and southwest of metro Baton Rouge.

With the frontal passage and wind shift we’ll also enjoy a nice drop in humidity.  Dew points that began the day in the upper 60°s will drop into the low 60°s by Saturday morning and could even make their way down into the upper 50°s by Saturday afternoon for some WAFB areas.  That’s in the “very comfortable” range for dew point temps: not unheard of during late May but somewhat uncommon for this time of year.

Our latest set of model guidance suggests that we can expect dew points to remain in the 60° to 64° range across metro Baton Rouge through Sunday and into at least the first half of Monday before “return flow” (winds off the Gulf) starts to moisten-up the air once again.

So it’s two thumbs-up for the 3-day Memorial Day weekend -- the “unofficial” start to the summer season.  Yes, afternoon highs will still reach the upper 80°s for most WAFB neighborhoods on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, but the reduced humidity will mean comfortable mornings (at least by late May standards).  In addition, the “dry” air means that rain chances for all three days will be about as close to “zilch” as we can expect for this time of year!

Three great “outdoor” days -- just remember the water and the sunscreen and watch the kids and the elderly for sign of heat stress if they stay outside for long stretches at a time.

Sadly, the “dry” air will be gone before the middle of next week.  We close out the last days of May (Wednesday thru Friday) with a more typical south Louisiana summertime pattern: morning lows in the upper 60°s to low 70°s across the viewing area with afternoon highs in the upper 80°s to around 90° and isolated-to-possibly-scattered afternoon and early evening t-showers.  But then that is the way it is supposed to be.

And when you have a free moment, take time to remember the purpose of this federal holiday: Memorial Day is for recognizing and honoring those who died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces.

Lower Humidity on the Way!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

There were some pockets of rather dense fog this morning, but not enough to prompt the NWS to issue an advisory -- the same will likely be true for Friday morning.

A few t-storms popped up late this afternoon – producing frequent lightning and heavy rainfall – but most of us have remained dry, with highs climbing up to around 90° for many WAFB neighborhoods. That too may be repeated for Friday afternoon, although we suspect that showers for Friday afternoon will be mainly confined to the coastal areas.

As we’ve mentioned through the week, we expect a “backdoor” cool front to work through the viewing area during the morning and mid-day hours on Friday. 

What’s a “backdoor” cool front? It’s a term for a front that slides into the area from the north or even northeast rather than the normal approach from the west or northwest.

Our “backdoor” front won’t have much of an impact on afternoon temps, but it will deliver a “drier” (less humid) air mass, which will mean a drop in the daytime humidity and morning starts in the low 60°s for Saturday and Sunday morning.

We’re headed into the “extended” Memorial Day Weekend - - considered by many to be the unofficial kick-off to the summer season. And the forecast for the entire weekend is a great one no matter where you plan to be in the Gulf South region. Whether it’s the coastal beaches, chasing the Tigers in Hoover, or just an afternoon in the backyard, the forecast everywhere is not only a rain-free 3-day weekend, but the northeasterly flow thanks to Friday’s cool front will mean everyone gets a dose of the less-humid air mass.

But the “drier” air doesn’t last too long. Winds will begin to swing around on Sunday and by Tuesday we’ll be back to our more typical late May muggies. But even then, our forecast stays mainly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, with just a 20% rain chance for Thursday.

And in case you don’t catch the news this evening, the NOAA tropical experts (from the National Hurricane Center and the Climate Prediction Center) issued there forecast for tropical weather activity in the Atlantic basin today. Their forecast offers no insight as to U.S. landfall threats, but does suggest that we will see another busy season with: 13 to 20 ‘named’ storms, 7 to 11 becoming hurricanes of which 3 to 6 would become ‘major’ hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Are you Hurricane Ready? Have your “Game Plan?”

Much Drier Next Couple of Days

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Now that was a nasty way to start the day, with WAFB Traffic Center reporting more than 30 accidents in and around metro Baton Rouge during the morning commute thanks to the stormy weather.  But that wasn’t all that was a mess:  thunderstorm winds generated pockets of damage across the WAFB viewing area and Titan9 Doppler radar picked up indications of hail with the bigger storms.  Add to that some very active cloud-to-ground lighting and WAFB Weather Watchers reporting widespread 1” to 3” rain totals -- with some reports topping 4” for the day!

In case you are wondering: today’s storms were not a sign that the cool front has moved through -- the front remains to our north and will likely still be there into early Friday.

But we think we’re generally done with rain for the rest of the week.  We could see a spotty shower or two on Thursday and/or Friday afternoon, but the vast majority will stay dry for both days.  What we will see on Thursday and Friday is a return of Gulf heat and humidity, with afternoon highs on both days likely climbing back into the 90°s for many WAFB neighborhoods.

By Friday morning, however, the cool front currently to our north and northwest will “backdoor” its way through the WAFB viewing area (moving almost NE to SW).  As we mentioned in earlier discussions this week, we don’t expect a big drop in the afternoon temperatures as a result of the cool front’s passage, but we will feel a welcomed drop in humidity as the flow comes out of the NE and east for Friday into Saturday.  That should deliver morning lows for Saturday and Sunday in the low 60°s for the Red Stick, and even cooler north and east of metro BR -- quite a change after our recent run of sun-up temps in the 70°s!

By Sunday, the winds will have shifted back around from the SE, but we’ll stay dry for Sunday and Memorial Day (Monday).   Highs through the long weekend will be in the upper 80°s with mainly sunny days -- a great “unofficial” start to the summer.  Grab the sunscreen!

And for those of you headed to the Gulf Coast or maybe up to Hoover to catch the Tigers?  No weather problems to be found anywhere!

In fact, our forecast stays dry through Tuesday, with only a slight chance of rain for next Wednesday.