Cool, Dry Weekend Ahead!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

It certainly was a chilly start to the day, although not as cool as we had anticipated. Morning lows bottomed out in the low to mid 40°s for most WAFB neighborhoods along and north of the I-10/12 corridor -- looks like the winds were just active enough through the night to keep the low-level air well mixed, which slows the rate of cooling that can occur even under mainly-clear skies.

As expected, Friday afternoon was a nice one: highs in the mid to upper 60°s under mainly-clear skies with dew points down in the 30°s -- “dry” air even by November standards. But the breezes stayed with us through the afternoon, making it feel a little cooler in shady spots.

The weekend looks like a good one: dry for both Saturday and Sunday with a warming-trend that continues into Veterans Day (Monday). And by the way, thanks Veterans!

Saturday’s wake-up will still be on the chilly side, with sun-up temps in the low to mid 40°s for the ‘Red Stick.’ However, the Polar jet stream pathway and associated U.S. storm systems will remain far to our north through the weekend, keeping winter-like temps bottled up and allowing afternoon temps to return to the 70°s along the Gulf Coast over the coming days.

The only thing that may keep the weekend from scoring a ‘10’ on the “Great Weather” scale will be some high-level clouds that will stream in from the west. The Sub-tropical jet stream (sometimes called the Southern branch of the jet stream) will remain active, transporting high-level Pacific moisture over Mexico and Texas and across the Gulf Coast region. We’ll get no rain, just a thin veil of clouds that will filter the sunshine.

Monday looks good too. As we head into the upcoming mid-week, our guidance shows the next cold front marching from north-to-south, passing through the WAFB viewing area on Tuesday. Everything points to a rain-free frontal passage: the atmosphere will be too dry for this front to generate anything more than some clouds. What you will notice, however, is another round of chilly air arriving after the front moves through. Our mid-week frontal passage will be followed by another Canadian air mass -- this one likely to be a little cooler than what we’ve experienced the past couple of days. (Yep, it’s that time of year, when air masses from the north are likely to get progressively cooler.)

What about well down the road? While we ALWAYS take long-range outlooks with a grain of salt (or two), the latest 10-day projections from the GFS (American) and ECMWF (European) forecast models keep us essentially rain-free until we approach the end of next week. The GFS has rain moving into the lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday (Nov 17-18), while the ‘Euro’ is faster, getting the rains into our region as early as mid/late Friday, and keeping the ‘need for umbrellas’ right through the entire weekend.

In the tropics ... all remains quiet across the Atlantic basin. On the other side of the world, however, super-typhoon Haiyan is still making news. After slamming the island nation of the Philippines -- and likely setting a new all-time global record for peak winds at landfall -- Haiyan is moving away from the Philippines and out over the South China Sea and is expected to crash into Vietnam on Sunday.

Chilliest Night of the Season Ahead!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Even with the cold front well off to the east of the viewing area early this morning, mid- and high-level clouds kept skies gray later than we expected. Then add in the northerly breezes and temps in the upper 40°s to lower 50°s for many WAFB neighborhoods at sunrise and the day started out ‘feeling’ very chilly!

The clouds finally cleared the region from west-to-east through the day, delivering the afternoon’s promised sunshine. However, given the day’s cool start, the slow morning warm-up due to the clouds, and the gusty northerly winds our afternoon highs struggled to make the mid 60°s around metro Baton Rouge. In fact, many WAFB neighborhoods were still in the 50°s at lunchtime.

Yep -- it’s feeling like November -- in fact, we’ll be running a little cooler-than-normal for the next couple of days. But here’s some very good news: we’ll stay dry through the weekend, so make some plans to get out and enjoy! Surface high-pressure will shift eastward in the coming days, settling over the mid-Atlantic Seaboard by Saturday.

With a cool-and-dry Canadian air mass virtually on top of us today and tomorrow, the next couple of sunrises will be quite chilly. We’re expecting morning lows in the upper 30°s to low 40°s for most WAFB communities for Friday and a return to the low 40°s for metro Baton Rouge on Saturday morning -- which means folks up near and along the LA/MS state line could see another round of 30°s for the weekend start. Plan for Red Stick highs on Friday in the upper 60°s under mainly-sunny skies, then we’ll climb back to the low 70°s under partly-cloudy skies for the Capital City on Saturday.

The warming trend continues into Sunday under mainly-fair skies with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70°s and the outlook for Monday -- Veteran’s Day -- is also a good one with fair to partly-cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70°s.

In the extended outlook, guidance is suggesting that a reinforcing cold front will slide from north-to-south through the Bayou State late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Given the “dry” nature of the air mass that will be in place as that front comes through, the front will be “starved” for moisture. The way it’s looking right now, we may see some clouds as the front pushes through, but if we do squeeze out a shower or two it is likely to be little more than a sprinkle. For now we’ll post a 20% rain chance for Wednesday, but that is probably being generous. And most of us will be back down into the 60°s for daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday.

So all in all, it looks like a dry weekend and a dry work week ahead.

And while there's nothing to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed on the planet made landfall in the Philippines Thursday afternoon (early Friday in the Philippines). Super Typhoon Haiyan (referred to as Yolanda in the Philippines) was estimated to have maximum sustained winds of 195 mph at landfall. For a point of reference, Katrina's maximum winds reached 175 mph in the central Gulf and Hurricane Camille (1969) was estimated to have winds up to 190 mph, although some debate the accuracy of that number.

Rain Tonight, Much Nicer Thursday!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

For many of you, the morning was much brighter than we had expected. Instead of mostly cloudy skies as we had anticipated, we started out with fair skies and reasonably low humidity. In fact, the sunshine warmed Metro Airport to 81° before noon! But by the lunch hour Mother Nature had caught up to our way of thinking and we were already seeing isolated showers in the viewing area. Rain coverage slowly increased through the afternoon -- by 3:00pm, WAFB had received almost 0.2” of rain.

The cold front we’re awaiting is advancing to the east faster than we had expected yesterday. In fact, the way it looks now, the front should be moving through the Baton Rouge metro area around midnight or so and be moving out of the southeastern-most parishes around sunrise. That means not only a rain-free Thursday morning commute but even the southern and southeastern WAFB communities should be under clear skies before mid-day. 

As of this afternoon, the front is evident on radar as a very thin line of moderate rains over western Louisiana, with a couple of pre-frontal rain bands currently impacting our viewing area as well as parts of central and eastern Acadiana. We’re expecting the main line of rain to remain rather narrow as it passes through our area ... and don’t be surprised if it weakens a bit before arriving in WAFBland later this evening and overnight.

As a result, our thinking remains the same in terms of rain totals and t-storms: most WAFB neighborhoods will see under one-half-inch of rain with this event and the handful of thunderstorms that try to develop this evening will be rather weak and barely produce more than a rumble or two of thunder.

The cooler air mass behind the front will mean Thursday highs in the 60°s for most of us, with lows dropping to near 40° for the Capital City by Friday’s wake-up. Those living north of Baton Rouge can expect Friday morning lows in the 30°s. Friday will be sunny day with Baton Rouge highs near 70°.

The weekend still looks good, too. We’re going with mid to upper 40°s for Baton Rouge on Saturday morning and mostly fair skies with highs in the low 70°s for the afternoon. It gets a little warmer for Sunday, with morning lows in the mid 50°s and afternoon highs in the mid 70°s under partly cloudy skies.

Looks like it stays mild and dry for Monday, Veteran’s Day, and while there’s still some uncertainty about the weather for next Tuesday and Wednesday, at this point we expect both days to remain “mainly dry.”

Mid-Week Cold Front ... Great Looking Weekend!

Even with last night’s dew points dropping into the mid 50°s, the overnight clouds served as a blanket and actually helped warm the area after midnight. As a result, after slipping into the upper 50°s before midnight, sunrise temps for metro Baton Rouge had climbed back into the low 60°s. We spent most of today in-and-out of the clouds, reaching the 70°s before 10:00am and climbing into the mid to upper 70°s for the afternoon. And as expected, we did see a few blips on Titan9 Doppler, but the majority of WAFB neighborhoods remained dry throughout the day.

 

Our thinking hasn’t changed much from yesterday regarding the outlook over the next two days and into the weekend. Most of the WAFB area will remain in the 60°s tonight and into early Wednesday morning under mostly cloudy but generally rain-free skies. Temps will climb into the low 80°s for most of us on Wednesday afternoon, and we’ll stay with yesterday’s 30% rain chance in the Wednesday afternoon forecast.

But those rain probabilities will rise later into Wednesday evening and very early Thursday morning in response to the arrival of our next cold front. As we noted yesterday, this does not look like a very active front for the WAFB viewing area as the system’s main energy will track well to our north. For us, while we can’t entirely rule out a thunderstorm or two, no strong storms are anticipated as the front moves through and rainfall totals are likely to be on the light side for just about everyone -- we’re thinking most neighborhoods, if not all, will get less than one-half-inch of rain. In fact, both the American GFS and the European ECMWF models suggest that the front will weaken as it approaches and passes from northwest-to-southeast through our viewing area. 

 

For now, we’ll continue to carry rain chances at 60% (in the “likely” category) for late Wednesday evening in the early morning hours of Thursday, but we see no concern for severe weather or street flooding and by mid-day Thursday our skies should be clearing nicely.

Behind Thursday’s front, we’ll enjoy a surge of cool-and-less-humid air. Even with plenty of sunshine, highs for Thursday and Friday will top-out in the 60°s for many of WAFB’s northern communities and morning lows for Friday and Saturday will drop into the 40°s.

A warming trend will begin on Saturday afternoon, but for now it looks like we’ll enjoy another good looking November weekend with highs for Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 70°s.

 

In the tropics, the area in the central Caribbean that had piqued the interest of the NHC experts has essentially fallen apart. At present, the entire Atlantic Basin appears “scrubbed” of any potential tropical development.

Warming Trend, Increasing Rain Chances

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Don’t know about you ... but this time change is going to take some getting used to -- just as it does every time we “move” the clocks. But almost dark at 5:30pm? Are you really ready for that?

It certainly was a nice weekend and even most of today was marked by some cheery sunshine. But as we’ve eased into the late afternoon, the high clouds have been thickening-up. Plan on mostly cloudy skies through the night and into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday’s wake-up temps will also be a bit warmer than the 40°s that metro Baton Rouge saw for Monday’s sunrise. Like today, Tuesday’s highs will reach the upper 70°s for the Red Stick; however, the difference will be seen with mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday as well as a few showers popping-up on Titan9 Doppler by the afternoon. Not to worry, though -- Tuesday will be a dry day for most as we’re posting rain chances for Tuesday at 20% or less.

The warming trend continues into Wednesday, with wake-up temps near 60° for many of us and afternoon highs reaching 80° or more. But the warmer weather will come with more humidity and an increase to 30% for the rain chances during Wednesday afternoon.

Our next front is currently scheduled to arrive either very late on Wednesday or very early (pre-dawn hours) on Thursday, so we expect rain changes to steadily rise from Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. For now, we’re going with a 60% rain chance with the front’s passage, but that may be a bit on the low side. It’s still a little early in the game to be making definitive calls about the status of the mid-week front, but for the time being this week’s frontal passage does not have the ‘look’ of a stormy weather event. Most of the energy with this storm complex will run well to the north. In fact, the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s preliminary rain estimates for our viewing area are coming in at under one-half-inch, suggesting little in the way of active weather as the front moves through.

Based on the current guidance, that front clears the Louisiana coast near mid-day on Thursday, and sets us up for another good looking Friday and subsequent weekend!

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the central Caribbean. In all honesty, this area really doesn’t have much chance for development -- at least over the short term -- as fairly strong and persistent shear coupled with subsiding (sinking) air are going to put the clamps on formation for the next couple of days. If the area can stay together through the middle or end of the week it might have some potential for organization. We’ll keep a watch on it too.

Much Nicer on Friday!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

It was a very busy first half of the day, highlighted by Tornado Watches for just about the entire WAFB viewing area. But the east-bound squall line that was the key ingredient prompting our regional severe weather concerns started to lose its form as it crossed the Mississippi River, and as of 3:45pm, the NWS began trimming the Tornado Watch for metro Baton Rouge from west-to-east.

By 4pm, we had received about 0.3” of rain at the downtown studio, most of which came in a relatively short downpour. So what does it all mean for the Halloween Trick-or-Treaters?

While the severe threat is off the table for the evening hours, it looks like the rain will persist well into the evening, making for a “wet” time for those trying to go door-to-door during the 5-8pm “Witching Hours.”

We think that most WAFB neighborhoods can expect 0.5” to 1.0” of rain before all is said and done. But the “done” part comes before Friday’s morning drive for Baton Rouge.

In fact, we think that rains will have ended for metro Baton Rouge sometime around midnight or so ... ending even sooner for areas north and west of the Red Stick. While we could still see a shower or two closer to the coast by sunrise, even even those areas clear out by mid-to-late morning, leaving just about all of us with a great looking second half of the day for Friday.

And the weekend? Spectacular! Sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday... Saturday will start out near 50° at sunrise across the Capital City with afternoon highs in the low 70°s. And it turns even cooler for Sunday, with wake-up temps in the 40°s and afternoon highs not even making the 70°s for many WAFB communities!

Scattered showers return to the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with our next cold front currently scheduled for arrival on Thursday.

Turning Wet for Halloween Evening

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

We stayed under the clouds for the better part of the day, although there were times when the cloud-deck thinned enough to let is some decent amounts of sunshine. We’ll remain under the clouds through the most of the evening and overnight, with those cloud layers thickening as we head towards Thursday morning.

In fact, a few might see a sprinkle or two for Thursday morning’s commute, but it should be a mainly-dry morning drive for most with sunrise temps in the upper 60°s -- on the “warm” side of normal for late October.

The cold front we’ve been talking about is still on track to arrive late Thursday evening, but it’s the pre-frontal rains that are going to be a problem for the Trick-or-Treaters. It’s just not looking good at all for late Thursday afternoon and especially into the neighborhood Halloween hours (generally around 5-8pm for most local communities). We’ve got isolated to possibly scattered showers arriving by lunchtime with rain chances steadily rising through the afternoon and into the evening.

Yesterday we mentioned how our in-house RPM model was bringing the rains into our viewing area a bit later than two other reliable models -- the GFS (American) and ECMWF (European). The RPM was offering us some hope that the rains might hold off long enough to allow the door-to-door Gremlins a chance to collect their chocolate booty.

That was yesterday. Today, our RPM has sped-up a bit … and is now more in line with the other two reliable models, both of which paint a “wet” picture for the Baton Rouge metro area by 5-6pm, if not sooner. Communities well to the south and east of Baton Rouge will see the rains arrive later in the evening, so some may be able to get in their outdoor fun before the weather gets too active.

Also note that the NWS Storm Prediction Center has expanded the amount of WAFB area included in their “Slight Risk” for Thursday into early Friday. We still don’t anticipate widespread active or stormy weather, but a couple of t-storms could attain low-end severe thresholds, most likely in the form of high winds.

The good news is that the rains will move out quickly - - while we may still see some Friday mid-to-late morning rains closer to the coast, we have rains ending in the Baton Rouge metro area very early Friday morning -- before the morning commute. Look for sunshine by Friday afternoon as cooler and less humid air takes hold.

Rain totals are likely to range from around 0.5” to 1.5” for most, with some pockets of 2”+ where the stronger storms pass. Since we’ve been reasonably dry over the past couple of weeks, these projected rain totals won’t cause any serious problems in the area.

The weekend will be nearly perfect -- sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday! And looking farther ahead, we keep the weather dry for Monday, with modest rain chances on Tuesday and our next cold front currently on schedule to arrive Wednesday.

And nothing bubbling in the tropics!