Monday, November 4, 2013

Warming Trend, Increasing Rain Chances

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Don’t know about you ... but this time change is going to take some getting used to -- just as it does every time we “move” the clocks. But almost dark at 5:30pm? Are you really ready for that?

It certainly was a nice weekend and even most of today was marked by some cheery sunshine. But as we’ve eased into the late afternoon, the high clouds have been thickening-up. Plan on mostly cloudy skies through the night and into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday’s wake-up temps will also be a bit warmer than the 40°s that metro Baton Rouge saw for Monday’s sunrise. Like today, Tuesday’s highs will reach the upper 70°s for the Red Stick; however, the difference will be seen with mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday as well as a few showers popping-up on Titan9 Doppler by the afternoon. Not to worry, though -- Tuesday will be a dry day for most as we’re posting rain chances for Tuesday at 20% or less.

The warming trend continues into Wednesday, with wake-up temps near 60° for many of us and afternoon highs reaching 80° or more. But the warmer weather will come with more humidity and an increase to 30% for the rain chances during Wednesday afternoon.

Our next front is currently scheduled to arrive either very late on Wednesday or very early (pre-dawn hours) on Thursday, so we expect rain changes to steadily rise from Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. For now, we’re going with a 60% rain chance with the front’s passage, but that may be a bit on the low side. It’s still a little early in the game to be making definitive calls about the status of the mid-week front, but for the time being this week’s frontal passage does not have the ‘look’ of a stormy weather event. Most of the energy with this storm complex will run well to the north. In fact, the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s preliminary rain estimates for our viewing area are coming in at under one-half-inch, suggesting little in the way of active weather as the front moves through.

Based on the current guidance, that front clears the Louisiana coast near mid-day on Thursday, and sets us up for another good looking Friday and subsequent weekend!

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the central Caribbean. In all honesty, this area really doesn’t have much chance for development -- at least over the short term -- as fairly strong and persistent shear coupled with subsiding (sinking) air are going to put the clamps on formation for the next couple of days. If the area can stay together through the middle or end of the week it might have some potential for organization. We’ll keep a watch on it too.

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