Thursday, November 21, 2013

More Clouds, A Few Showers on Friday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Although it was mainly-dry across the WAFB viewing area, the clouds hung over us throughout the day.  Get used to it: the clouds will stay with us this evening and overnight, and continue right through Friday.
While we can’t rule out a spotty sprinkle or two tonight into Friday’s wake-up hours, just about everyone stays dry.  Even those that might see a passing shower or two overnight will barely get enough rain to so much as wet the sidewalk.  Temps tonight and into the morning will stay in the 60°s for just about everyone as today’s muggy air mass stays in place.
What may be an issue for Friday’s wake-up and morning drive could be areas of fog.  In fact, don’t be surprised should a DENSE FOG ADVISORY be in place for parts of the viewing area when you awaken Friday morning.
Our thinking for Friday and Saturday has undergone a bit of a change.  A cold front is still expected to push from northwest-to-southeast across the viewing area, with the front working through the Baton Rouge metro area late Friday night.  We think that the front will be draped close to the coast by Saturday’s sunrise with the front out over the Gulf waters by Saturday afternoon.

Here are the key changes we anticipate.
First, pre-frontal rains will be somewhat limited -- we’re only posting a 30% to 40% rain chance for Friday afternoon and early evening.  Indeed, rain chances will top-out at 50% to 60% from very late Friday into the first half of the day on Saturday.  While we can’t rule out a rumble or two of thunder as the front moves through, this will not be a very active frontal passage.  Rain totals will come in at well under 1” for just about everyone … in fact, most of us will likely see less than one-half-inch.
Second, it seems as though the main effects of the front and changing air masses will not be felt until after the front has passed us by.  Overrunning clouds and showers (rains and clouds behind the surface front) will mean some pockets of light rain through Saturday morning and could even provide passing light rains well into the afternoon.  In fact, the way it looks right now, clouds will persist into most or all of Saturdayafternoon and evening for most or all of us.
What’s more, Saturday will be one of those upside-down temperature days, with 60°s just after midnight but readings falling throughout the better part of the day.  We’re calling for afternoon temps in the 50°s, dropping into the 40°s by the evening.
For you Tiger fans: (1) cool and damp for the morning and mid-day tailgating and (2) staying cloudy and cool, possibly damp and rather breezy through the game -- dress appropriately!

We’ll dry out for very cool Sunday under a sun/cloud mix with morning lows in the upper 30°s to around 40° for the Red Stick and highs only getting into the mid 50°s.  But the dry-out will be brief: rain is back in the forecast for the latter half of Monday and into the first half of Tuesday as a non-tropical Gulf low slides west-to-east along the coast.

After that, the weather looks dry for the remainder of the work week, but temps remain well below normal.
In the tropics: Melissa is still barely hanging on to ‘her’ tropical classification and should transition into a non-tropical system within the next day or so.

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