Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Clouds, Rain Returning to the Forecast

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

After a chilly start this morning, we enjoyed a beauty of a November day with just about everyone climbing into the 70°s for afternoon highs.  Sadly, the clear skies won’t last long.

Clouds will be on the increase overnight, with mostly cloudy skies expected for Thursday’s sunrise.  The “cloud blanket” will keep us much warmer tonight, with Red Stick lows for Thursday’s wake-up expected to be in the 50°s -- 15° or so warmer than earlier this morning.  We’ll stay with mostly cloudy skies on Thursday and warm into the upper 70°s -- plus toss in a 20% chance of light afternoon showers.  Even where it does rain, accumulations will be minimal.
Our forecast is even warmer for Friday, with rain chances on the rise during the latter half of the day as our next cold front approaches.  We’ll go with a 40% to 50% rain chance for Friday afternoon into the evening, with even higher percentages for the overnight period between Friday evening and Saturday morning.
The timing of the weekend front is still a little uncertain, but the first half of Saturday is shaping up to be rather messy.  Although we are not anticipating any severe weather, rain is likely for Saturday morning with scattered rains extending into the latter half of the day.  While the front should get through the Baton Rouge metro area early in the day, “backside” (overrunning) rains behind the front should keep things cloudy and damp into the afternoon.  In addition, once the front moves south of your neighborhood, expect the northerly winds to pick-up as the colder air pours in.

Take note Tiger fans!  Saturday will likely remain cloudy into the afternoon and evening, so that even after the rains have eased-up it will remain rather disagreeable.  Gusty winds coupled with the inflow of chilly, Canadian air may produce one of those days where we see temperatures in the 50°s and slowly falling after lunchtime.
Skies will clear by Sunday, but the cool air remains.  In fact, our extended outlook keeps daytime highs in the 50°s for many of us right into at least the middle of next week!  It won’t get bitterly cold, but the run from Sunday into mid-week shapes up to be the chilliest spell we’ve seen since early March.

Sunday’s dry-out won’t last long either: we’re posting scattered rain s in the forecast for the latter half of Monday with rain likely for Tuesday as a non-tropical low slides from west-to-east across the northern Gulf.
And for you fans of the tropics ... the National Hurricane Center (NHC) changed Melissa’s designation from a sub-tropical storm to a fully tropical system this morning, even though ‘she’ is notably weaker and less organized today compared to yesterday.  Melissa continues to track towards cooler waters and a region of enhanced wind shear, with the NHC expecting the system to transition into a non-tropical (“post-tropical”) storm within the next day or so.

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