Thursday, March 1, 2012

Changes for the Weekend...

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Thankfully the winds stayed up last night, keeping widespread dense fog from developing as we had expected. And through the day today we had some nice breaks in the clouds, even though a few neighborhoods still managed to deal with a shower or two through the day. Given the warm and moist Gulf air mass in place and the mid-afternoon spells of sunshine, the thermometer rose into the 80°s across the viewing area, with a few locations tying or breaking records for today’s high.

Friday will be yet another day where many, if not all, of us will see neighborhood temperatures return to the 80°s - - a fourth day in a row at a time when highs normally are much closer to 70°! We’ll start Friday with mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog, but it looks like the winds will again be active enough to limit any concerns of widespread dense fog. Winds will stay up through the day on Friday, with mid-day winds running occasionally climbing into the ‘high teens’ and ‘twenties’ (mph). Mostly cloudy skies through the day will provide a few showers by the afternoon and early evening - - we’re going with a 30% rain chance for that window of time.

Titan9 RPM model projection for 6:30 PM Friday showing just a few showers in the area. Rain chances are expected to increase late Friday night into Saturday morning.

The cool front we’ve talked about for a couple of days is still on track to arrive early Saturday, although the latest run of our in-house RPM model has slowed the system’s forward speed a tad. Rain will likely start arriving in the Baton Rouge metro area by or before midnight, with the frontal boundary expected to slide through the metro area by or before mid-morning.

We note a “SLIGHT RISK” for severe weather for WAFB communities north and northeast of metro BR between about 8PM Friday and 6AM Saturday. The main severe weather energy will remain far to our northeast, stretching from northern Alabama into southern Ohio. For now, we’re expecting most Weather Watchers to report from about a quarter- to a half-inch of rain with Saturday’s front, with a few possibly topping the one-inch mark where t-storms are a little more productive.

The Storm Prediction Center has a 'moderate' risk of severe weather posted for portions of the Tennesse and Ohio valleys on Friday. They've also outlined that same area in an enhanced 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. A 'slight' risk of severe weather extends down to the LA/MS state line.
Clouds may linger a bit behind the front, but we should see some clearing skies by mid-afternoon on Saturday. It will be noticeably cooler as well, with or current forecast calling for a high in the mid 60°s for the Baton Rouge area! Sunday is shaping up to be a March beauty: sunny skies with a cool morning start near 40° but a mild afternoon in the upper 60°s.

Monday through Wednesday look like superb early spring-like days, with highs in the low 70°s. And for now, even Thursday looks pretty good, with only spotty afternoon showers and a high in the mid 70°s.

No comments:

Post a Comment