Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Stays Warm, More Humid

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

If you were outdoors during the afternoon, I’ll bet you sensed that slight but notable increase in humidity!  Although the thermometer said that Tuesday afternoon was about the same as Monday, it sure seemed warmer.  Not unpleasant -- just not as comfortable as the last couple of days.  Thankfully a light breeze through the afternoon kept the air from taking on that hot, muggy and “still” feeling that we know will be here soon enough.  Yes, summer is not too far away.

And be ready for the air to get slowly-but-progressively more humid as we head deeper into the work week.

The good news is that we don’t see any kind of threats in terms of severe weather for the next several days ... in fact, right now it looks like we’ll be free of active/severe weather through the weekend and into well into next week!  But that does not mean we’ll stay rain-free.

With the set-up of a steady “return flow” - - inflow of low-level moisture and warmth off the Gulf - - through the next five days or more, we’ll add enough Gulf moisture to the air to fuel some afternoon showers, with an occasional rumble of thunder as well.  But even with those occasional passing showers in the coming days, most of us will get through the entire weekend with little in the way of accumulations.  Current NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall projections suggest that most of us will see something on the order of under one-half inch of rain between Wednesday and Saturday.

NOAA / HPC forecast precipitation through Sunday morning.
We’re thinking only a stray afternoon shower or two (less than a 20% chance) for Wednesday and Thursday, with those percentages rising to 20% to 30% for Friday.  For now, we still think that Saturday has the best rain chance for your neighborhood over the coming days.

Even the rains that do develop on Saturday and Sunday are likely to be the scattered, rather brief variety of showers and thundershowers.  Most won’t last very long, so don’t cancel any weekend plans!

The other story is that we’ll stay warmer-than-normal through the week.  Look for highs in the 80°s with morning minimums in the 60°s for the week.  The increasing humidity -- increasing dewpoints -- will limit overnight cooling, and that’s pointing to muggy mid-60°s for morning lows by the weekend.  The added humidity will also mean better chances for early morning fog over the coming mornings, especially in the “usual suspect” areas.

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