Thursday, July 26, 2012

Scattered T-Storms Friday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As we’ve seen the past couple of days, just about all of the showers and t-storms that did develop this afternoon should be gone by or before sunset, and we’ll go to partly cloudy skies for the late evening and overnight.
Morning lows have been in the mid to upper 70°s the last couple of mornings -- that is a little warmer than normal for the morning start and we think that trend will continue for the next couple of days, at least.

The upper-level ridge of high pressure we’ve discussed the past few days will remain in place for Friday, but it looks like it will weaken a tad, allowing for slightly better rain chances for Friday afternoon.  We’re going with a 40% chance of afternoon and early evening showers and t-storms for the WAFB viewing area on Friday, but the clouds and rains won’t arrive early enough to keep us out of the 90°s for afternoon highs:  expect highs on Friday to reach the low to mid 90°s.
A pair of cool fronts will try to work their way south into the lower Mississippi Valley between now and Sunday.  The first front will stall well to our north -- over northern Alabama and Mississippi -- on Friday.  The second, follow-up front could make it as far south as central Mississippi and central Alabama by Sunday, but it too looks to stall and ultimately retreat northward.  Bottom line: no relief from the heat through the weekend.
In fact, our thinking is that the upper-level ridge may re-strengthen somewhat into the weekend, knocking rain chances back down to the “isolated” category (about a 20% probability) by Sunday.  The stronger ridging over the weekend likely will mean less cloud cover and more sunshine, driving afternoon highs in to the mid 90°s with many neighborhoods reaching the upper 90°s!
While it looks like the weekend weather will cooperate for some outdoor time -- whether it be golfing, boating, biking or yard work.  Just remember to be careful in the heat!  The temps and humidity will mean Heat Index values (‘feels like’ temps) well above 100° for several hours.
Although we continue to watch an area of t-storms in the northeastern Gulf, there appears to be little or no threat for it to develop into anything ‘tropical.’  We continue to track some easterly waves in the deep tropical Atlantic, but none of those are showing any signs of impending development either.  Yep -- all still looks “quiet” in the tropics!

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