Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Soggy Weather Continues

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

The morning rains were more widespread and more active than Jay had expected, and that dealt a real blow to the forecast for the entire day.  Not only was it a “wetter” morning commute than Jay expected, but those morning rains also helped stabilize the atmosphere a bit through much of the day, keeping rains on the light side through the late morning and afternoon.
Even where it wasn’t raining at mid-day, the persistent cloud deck blocked the sun and held temps in check: many WAFB neighborhoods stayed in the 70°s for most or all of the afternoon -- an appreciated change from the blistering heat during a good bit of the previous four to six weeks!
Although it looks like the mid/upper-level low responsible for some of the storminess over the past few days is “filling” a bit (losing its influence on the regional weather), guidance continues to suggest a mid/upper trough will influence our weather for  the next several days, at least.  Given that set-up, we’re keeping fairly good rain chances in the forecast for the coming days.  But unlike today, we think that the main focus for the timing of rains through the latter half of the work week and into the weekend will be towards the afternoon -- something a bit more typical for the summer season.
That’s not to say that the overnights and early mornings will be completely dry.  We’re keeping isolated rains in the overnight and early morning forecasts for both tonight into early Wednesday and again the following overnight and early AM period.  Early morning rains will tend to be closer to the coast, but isolated showers for the metro area morning commute certainly can’t be ruled out.
Set those afternoon and early evening rain chances at 40% to 50% for each day through the work week and the weekend.  Morning lows will be in the 70°s (low to mid 70°s for metro Baton Rouge), with highs in the upper 80°s to low 90°s for most WAFB communities, depending on when the local rains begin.
While many of you have had enough of this run of wet weather, the lawns, gardens, and landscape are certainly enjoying it.  We had been getting a bit dry, and these last few days are not only helping to take any drought threat out of the local picture, but providing a decent amount of deeper-soil water recharge for the longer range.
All remains quiet in the tropical Atlantic, and that’s the way we like it!

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