Thursday, September 13, 2012

Hot, Drier for Friday & Saturday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Like Wednesday, we’re watching some showers and isolated t-storms roll across portions of the viewing area this afternoon ... but unlike Wednesday, none of the t-storms have prompted a Severe Warning thus far today. The rains should subside later this evening, giving way to mainly fair skies tonight.

Winds from the east and ENE over the next day will provide a very slight dip in humidity levels for Friday, not only making for a drier day than today but also providing a slight dip in the humidity. Don’t be confused, however ... this will not mean a return of the great weather from earlier in the week!

The front we’ve been talking about for the past couple of days will still arrive over the weekend, but the forecast now is for an even slower approach and an even more diffuse boundary than we had been anticipating. That means that Saturday looks like it will be a mainly-dry day too, with only spotty t-showers for the afternoon forecast -- and that’s great news for LSU Tiger tailgaters as LSU hosts Idaho on Saturday evening in Death Valley.

The front may start to fizzle out along the central Gulf Coast late Saturday into Sunday, but some of the extended guidance indicates that what is left of the front’s surface signature could get a little boost from a slow-moving mid/upper-level disturbance tracking towards us from the west. That’s why our forecast has “rain likely” for Sunday into Monday.

At the same time, a second Canadian front looks like it will be moving through the ArkLaTex by Tuesday morning, adding some additional lift and keeping decent rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday. While the first front doesn’t show any promise for cooler-and-less-humid air, the second front should provide at least a modest ‘cool down’ along with a dip in the humidity levels by Wednesday into Thursday.

Although all indications are that Nadine will be no threat to any land areas, we’re still watching this storm as it churns-up the central Atlantic. Nadine continues to be fairly-well organized, with good banding characteristics and good upper-level outflow on its northeastern and eastern flank. But as of 4pm, the NHC still has Nadine at ‘strong’ tropical-storm strength, with peak winds estimated at 70 mph. Given her appearance and a relatively favorable environment, Nadine is still expected to become a hurricane within the next day or so. If Nadine does get upgraded, she will be the 8th hurricane of the 2012 season. 

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