Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Staying Warm & Dry

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As was true today, modest mid- and upper-level ridging extending from the Southern Plains into the western Gulf will be enough to keep rain to near zilch and take highs up to around 90° for Wednesday and Thursday. At the same time, SE to southerly flow at the low levels will continue to provide Gulf moisture and keep dewpoints in the mid to upper 60°s.

While the forecast is not calling for days that are way above normal in terms of heat and humidity, we can expect a few more days that feel almost summer-like.

By Friday, we’ll introduce a slight rain chance to the forecast. Heading into the weekend, left-over moisture from the Pacific’s T.S. Miriam will combine with a mid-level disturbance and a slowly-advancing cold front to make for scattered to numerous rains for Saturday into Sunday. There is still a bit of uncertainty as to the timing of the rains and frontal passage through the weekend, but for now we’re thinking that the front slowly works through the state on Sunday and exits the region sometime Monday.



After the front pushes through, we should get a taste of moderately cooler and drier weather for the early part of next week.

In the tropics: T.S. Nadine just refuses to go away -- today is the 15th day that Nadine has maintained tropical/sub-tropical storm or hurricane intensity! The latest NHC forecast still calls for Nadine to complete a “closed loop” in her track by the end of the weekend into early next week. While Nadine’s peak sustained winds dropped into the 40s late last night, the NHC expects Nadine to re-strengthen in the coming days! Could it be that the Azores still aren’t ‘done’ with this storm?



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