Friday, November 23, 2012

     -- Jay Grymes
         Friday, November 23
 
Although we didn’t get to see those autumn blue-skies like we’ve enjoyed over the last several days, our Black Friday weather cooperated nicely for those doing battle in local parking lots as they pursued holiday shopping bargains!

Hat’s off to all of you who participated in today’s “Madness at the Malls” -- I am not that brave!

Today’s morning clouds kept sun-up temps a little warmer than we had expected ... and that minimized the early morning fog threat. Partly to mostly cloudy skies have been the rule for much of the day, with cloudy skies for the late afternoon. Afternoon temps climbed into the low to mid 70°s for most while we waited for the cold front to slide through the WAFB viewing area.

When we look at atmospheric moisture, however, we find that the air is simply too dry to support any significant rain with today’s frontal passage. Normally, with a cold front advancing towards us from the north and northwest, we would expect decent southeast-to-south winds at the lower levels ahead of the front. That typically would pump some Gulf moisture into the area ... but that was not the case this afternoon.

In fact, it looks like we won’t see so much as a short-lived blip or two on radar as the front moves through. There were some showers and pockets of mainly-light rain in southwestern Louisiana, but even those are fizzling out during the late afternoon hours.

Skies will begin clearing before midnight and you will notice a major change in temperatures for the rest of the weekend.

Saturday morning lows will drop back into the low 40°s under clear skies. We’ll enjoy sunshine and blue skies on Saturday, but say goodbye to the 70°s -- in fact, many communities along and north of the I-10/12 corridor may not even make it to 60° on Saturday afternoon.

And the forecast for Sunday morning currently calls for the coldest morning of the season this far! Metro Airport has dipped to 36° twice this fall -- on Oct 30 & Nov 15 -- but our current forecast for Sunday morning is calling for a metro BR low of 33°, with lower temps to the north and east of the Capital City. That’s why the NWS has issued a “Freeze Watch” for most of SW Mississippi and the eastern half of the Florida Parishes.
 

But the winter temps won’t last, with temps rebounding to the upper 60°s for Sunday afternoon and lows on Monday only falling into the upper 40°s to low 50°s. The warm-up will be followed by a good chance of much-needed rain during the latter half of the day on Monday and extending into Tuesday morning as a cold front slides through the viewing area.

Rain chances look to be quite good during the Monday-Tuesday time frame, but that’s only half of the weather story. “How much rain?” -- that remains to be seen. The latest NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) outlook calls for only a modest amount of rain for the WAFB region: generally only 0.25” to 0.50” over the two days.

Based on the current guidance, the “up” side is that there does not appear to be a threat of severe weather with the Tuesday’s frontal passage, but the “down” side is that we really could use a better soaking than what is currently expected.

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