Thursday, November 15, 2012

-- Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta
      15 November 2012
 
While Baton Rouge’s Metro Airport (BTR) low of 36° this morning was a very chilly start to the day, we must remember that we’re just about on target for temps like these based on climatology and weather history. Statistics tell us that during more than half of all autumns, minimums of 36° occur by or before mid-November at BTR. (Don't forget, we dipped to 36° on the day before Halloween).  In fact, those same statistics show that, on average, our first light freeze roughly corresponds to the Thanksgiving Holiday ... yes, a light freeze may not be too far down the road.
 
But even though we should expect some 30°s during November, we have certainly been on a roll of cool weather. Eight of the past ten days have averaged below normal. Indeed, November is shaping up to be a cooler-than-normal month as Baton Rouge temps for the first half of November are averaging about 2° below the long-term normal.
 
Many of us can say “goodbye” to wake-up temps in the 30°s for the time being, although several WAFB communities north and east of Baton Rouge could still flirt with upper 30°s for the next two mornings. But a very modest warming trend will continue over the next 5 to 7 days, with afternoon highs up around 70° by Sunday for many of us.
 
Friday starts out near 40° under clear skies at sunrise, with sunny skies throughout the day. But the northerly flow continues and that will offset some of the daytime warming even with sunny skies, so will post a high in the mid to upper 60°s. The warming trend will also come with a run of dry weather through the weekend and into next week. In fact, the weekend looks great: mainly sunny a comfortably cool with highs in the upper 60°s for Saturday afternoon as the Tigers host Ole Miss for the final LSU home game of 2012. And for Sunday, we’re calling for mainly sunny skies and highs around 70°. 
 
 
 
Based upon what we see right now, it stays dry through Monday, with only a modest rain chance (about 20%) for Tuesday.
 
Our recent run of cool weather (but not “cold” by November standards) prompted us to take a quick look back at 2012 temperatures. Trivia buffs and weather wonks may remember the record-warm first quarter of 2012 for the WAFB viewing area. In fact, monthly temperatures for January through July were all above the norm. But since then, area temps have been averaging below the mean, with October ending up more than 2° cooler-than-normal. Still, the first half of 2012 was so warm (compared to normal) that as of the end of October, the ten-month average temperature for Metro Airport still ranks as the “warmest” for that time frame since at least 1930!

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