Monday, January 28, 2013

Windy & Warm Tuesday!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Tonight’s weather will include mild temps remaining in the 60°s through sunrise for metro Baton Rouge and the interstate corridor plus the potential for areas of fog for the morning commute.  Obviously the fog will be the biggest ingredient to the story, but the one inhibiting factor may be the overnight winds which will likely stay “up” just enough to keep the fog from blanketing the region.  Still, we can’t rule out the possibility of the NWS posting a Dense Fog Advisory for some parts of SE Louisiana and SW Mississippi, so be ready for the possibility for your Tuesday AM drive.

Today is the sixth consecutive day with highs in the 70°s for most WAFB communities, and it gets even warmer for Tuesday afternoon as area thermometers may approach the 80° mark!  For BR’s Metro Airport, the all-time record high for January 29th is 81° -- a few WAFB neighborhoods just might get there if they can get a little afternoon sunshine.  But for now, we think that Tuesday’s afternoon cloud cover may be just enough to keep us shy of the record.

More importantly, those same Tuesday afternoon clouds will deliver isolated showers.  We’re posting a 20% rain coverage for the afternoon, with sustained winds kicking up into the 15-20 mph range -- wind gusts through the afternoon will be even higher.

Rain chances will rapidly rise from Tuesday afternoon through the evening and into the overnight hours.  The week’s significant weather event develops late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as our next strong cold front pushes through the viewing area. 

Timing of the frontal passage may still need a little tweaking, but at this point we think the first pre-frontal rains will hold off until after midnight, with the front passing through metro BR between about 5:00 to 7:00am.

The early Wednesday front has some potential ingredients for active to severe weather, prompting the NWS to issue a “SLIGHT RISK” for severe weather in our viewing area.  The main threat will likely be before sun-up for metro Baton Rouge and viewers to the north and west of the Capital City, so have those NOAA radios ready.  The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

This front looks like it will be a relatively “fast-mover,” so rain totals for most neighborhoods will probably stay in the 0.25” to 0.50” range - - well below any concern for another round of flood threats, but that might be enough to add to the mess for the Wednesday AM commute in the “usual suspect” places.

But by Wednesday afternoon, clearing skies will be accompanied by highs in the 60°s.  After that, the forecast through the weekend remains dry, with temps a little closer to norms for this time of year.

1 comment:

  1. Is this one of those fronts that will weaken a little after sunset or will it maintain it's strength through the overnight? Ugh! Hate severe weather! :(