Monday, May 6, 2013

Warming Up This Week...

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

If you like it cool in the spring, then you MUST be a happy camper!

We set two new records lows over the past few days -- on Friday and Saturday -- with Saturday’s low of 40° tying the Capital City’s all-time record low for any day in May! But that’s not all: Sunday’s high of 65° was the lowest high temperature ever for Baton Rouge on the 5th of May.

We did a little review of the last five days, then added in today’s numbers plus our forecasted high and low for Tuesday. For these first 7 days of May, we come up with a 7-day average temperature of 63° -- 10° below the ‘normal’ 7-day average of 73° for the first 7 days of May. In fact, based on daily data back to 1930, this will be the ‘chilliest’ first 7 days of May ever for the Red Stick. The prior “chilliest’ first 7 days of May was set in 1945 and was nearly 2° ‘warmer’ than what we’ve calculated for this May’s start!

Quite often, chilly in the spring comes with ‘damp,’ but not so this week. Our forecast keeps things mainly dry through Thursday. You’ll also notice a warm-up for the coming days, with 80°s on the afternoon boards for the rest of the week.

Surface high pressure will linger over the northern Gulf through Wednesday, then slide east towards Florida by Thursday. Between Thursday and Friday, a low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains in the Texas Panhandle region with that system generating a cold front that will head east.

The strengthening front should reach northern and western Louisiana by early Saturday. Expect scattered showers and storms developing in the warm sector (ahead of the front) during the latter half of the day on Friday, with the main rain arriving in the WAFB viewing area on Saturday. Our current guidance suggests that the rains could linger into the first half of the day Sunday, with clearing skies during the latter half of Sunday leaving us with a good-looking fair weather Monday.

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