Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Staying Warm, Mainly Dry

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- clearing skies tonight, patchy light wake-up fog for Wednesday
- warm & dry for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons
- slight rain chances (20% or less) for Friday through Sunday

As we mentioned during yesterday's evening weathercasts, the 'cool' front that is pushing to the south and southeast through the state this afternoon and evening doesn’t have a whole lot of "punch" to it, barely generating so much as a shower in the region this afternoon. What's more, while we are calling it a ‘cool front’ it will make very little difference in our local temperatures and humidity. 

With most spring fronts traveling through the central Gulf Coast area from the west and northwest, we usually feel a welcomed drop in both dew points (humidity) and temperatures after the front moves through. But that's not going to be the case this time around. In fact, while our regional dew points may briefly drop a degree or two on Wednesday, the day will be as warm, if not warmer, than today. 

Whatever is left of today's front may back-up as a warm front on Wednesday, with warm and slightly-humid Gulf air settling over the Bayou State for the rest of the week. Yet even if the front retreats northward on Wednesday it won't have enough energy and mid-level moisture to do more than generate a few fair-weather clouds. We're expecting a mostly sunny Wednesday afternoon -- another fine outdoor "play day" for those youngsters enjoying a week off from school.

Our forecast headed into the weekend hasn't changed either from yesterday. We'll go with lows in the 60°s for the mornings with patchy wake-up fog and low to mid 80°s for the afternoon highs through Sunday. 

We’ll enjoy partly cloudy skies on Thursday. However, by Friday and the weekend, our daytime warm-ups will combine with the moisture from the Gulf air in place, resulting in spotty-to-isolated afternoon showers for all three days. Any showers that do develop should be short-lived, and while one or two may generate some claps of thunder, all three days should be fairly good days for some outside fun. With rain chances at 20% or less for each of the afternoons, there’s no reason to be concerned about any outdoor plans.

Into next week, our two favorite extended outlook models -- the GFS and the 'Euro' -- are still indicating the arrival of our next spring front on a Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Both models seem to suggest a slightly later arrival than they did yesterday and both models also suggest that this will likely be a more 'active' frontal passage than what we saw today. It is still a little too far off to nail-down the exact timing or the severe weather potential, but keep it in mind for any plans you might be making for next Monday evening.

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